W.E.T. Inverse Miami Football Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingmiami-football-inside-six-months reads 18.63 against this index’s 81.37. Same markets, opposite side.
7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The board stops listing markets that name Miami's football clubs inside this window: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A Miami club in another sport starts sharing this one's published vocabulary, at which point the declared exclusions stop separating the two and the composition would silently become an all-sports index for this metro wearing a single-sport name.
How this reading was constructed (9)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 22. Rejections by reason: excluded-keyword 4298, keyword-miss 12198, category-not-admitted 5, horizon-unknown 1, horizon-outside-window 6. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 6 event(s) that every other selector admitted, plus 1 whose resolution date this source does not carry. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 12198 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - 4298 canonical event(s) matched an excludeKeywords term and were not admitted. An exclusion is an ADMISSION decision and never a side one (§3.1): nothing here flips a member, it only declines to hold it.
- eligibility: 12 of 22 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: below-min-volume 5, price-below-floor 4, spread-too-wide 3. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 6 of 10 members and holding 0 of them NO. 6 of 6 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
- the level was chained as a price relative over the PRIOR composition at today's prices: 7 prior member(s), of which 3 could not be priced today and left through the DIVISOR (0 at a venue-reported resolution, 3 at their last governed mark, 0 unpriced on both dates). Price relative 1.029240105 against a gauge basis of 0.813747244; the divisor moved to absorb the composition and weight change, so what the level published is the price move and nothing else.
- the divisor this level chains from was struck on 2026-11-05, 1 close(s) ago, and 1 of those close(s) published no level at all. The chain is therefore measured against the 7-member composition of 2026-11-05 rather than against yesterday. A gap this shape is what a permanently refused level looks like from the outside, so it is published rather than left for a reader to infer from a hole in the chart.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec a324c0c3e583c98b · methodology 0efc03b988951315 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Nov 14, 2026 · last moved Nov 14, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
The same markets naming Miami Dolphins, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 965.37
- Since inception
- −3.46%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 66.7% of 12
- 1 day
- +2.72%
- 7 day
- +4.03%
- Markets held
- 12
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 51.8%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 55
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 12 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will Miami Dolphins win the 2026 AFC Eastpolymarket · NO · entry 98cpolymarketNO98c99c+1.3%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Miami Hurricanes win the 2027 CFP National Championship?polymarket · NO · entry 92cpolymarketNO92c90c−2.0%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Bills win the season series against the Dolphins during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 33cpolymarketNO33c37c+12.3%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- College Football Playoff Qualifiers — Miami (FL)gemini · NO · entry 27c11 sessions stalegeminiNO27c8c−69.8%15.0%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the Miami Dolphins make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?polymarket · NO · entry 95cpolymarketNO95c99c+4.3%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- College Football Playoff Qualifiers — Miami (OH)gemini · NO · entry 93c24 sessions stalegeminiNO93c96c+3.2%9.8%Gemini Predictions ↗
- AFC Championship Winner — Miamigemini · NO · entry 98c15 sessions stalegeminiNO98c99c+1.0%5.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the Patriots win the season series against the Dolphins during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 33cpolymarketNO33c39c+18.2%4.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Dolphins win the season series against the Bills during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 97cpolymarketNO97c94c−2.1%1.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will Miami Dolphins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most offensive touchdowns?polymarket · NO · entry 96cpolymarketNO96c97c+1.0%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the season series between the Dolphins and Patriots end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 69cpolymarketNO69c71c+2.9%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- College Football National Championship Winner — Miami (FL)gemini · NO · entry 93c15 sessions stalegeminiNO93c90c−3.8%0.8%Gemini Predictions ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
The opposing claim
the same roster, read the other way — one close, two seriesThis index is one side of a pair. The same canonical roster, consolidated once, is read against the opposite case and published as its own governed series — so the counter-argument is a number on the board, not a caveat in the prose.
Read the opposite side →Holding both sides of this argument should cost nothing — the outcomes are exhaustive. It does not. The two levels sum to 2000.28 against a combined base of 2,000, and that gap is path, spread and friction rather than a view about the world. Gauges complement exactly; levels do not, because a level remembers the route it took.
Friction gauge Φ 1.87 · complement residual 0 — the gauge identity is checked at every close and published whether or not it holds.
Key statistics
- Previous
- —
- Band
- Very high
- 21d Range
- 6891
- Percentile
- 67th
- 9d Change
- −9.9
- Volatility
- 7.8 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 10
- Effective N
- 7.5
- Top Weight
- 15%
- Venues
- 10 P
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 6 sessions
97 hourly readings since 2026-10-22 · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
21d published · interactive21 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 72 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 21d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 21 readings, slope +0.23/day, projection σ 9.8 pts/d widened for a 21-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — InsidersInsiders
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — InsidersInsiders
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 10 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-11-14) · the basket below holds a different setWhere these markets are covered
1 of 10 constituents has a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
WMIA2 · at a glance
- What it is
- The same markets naming Miami Dolphins, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.
- High vs low
- Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how miami-football is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Nov 14, 2026, the W.E.T. Inverse Miami Football Index 6mo (WMIA2) prints a WET Index Score of 81.4/100 (Very high), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.