W.E.T. Google Tech Science Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStanding7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "google" axis stops appearing in tech-science titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 20, severity frames 0 of 20, threshold frames 2 of 20), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (6)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 7. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 16076, category-not-admitted 406, horizon-outside-window 41. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 41 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 16076 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:coverage], framing 0 of 7 members and holding 0 of them NO. The declared threshold axis frames 0 of 7 members (0%), under the published 50% bar, so it takes no force today and no member is flipped by it. An axis that frames a corner of the board would state a direction for members it never read. This is the spec's own invalidation condition, measured rather than assumed. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- orientation: because the declared `threshold` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 8fac93b9e1af026b · methodology c8ccf8d3473fed17 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Nov 14, 2026 · last moved Nov 14, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
7 tech-science markets carrying the "google" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
No level published — the replayed series does not reconcile with this book. The replay ends +87.3% from base while the book's own closed and open positions give +163.6% — a 76-point disagreement. This book's units were resized by a rebalance without a new open date, so its day-one sizing is not recoverable from anything on disk and the history cannot be replayed honestly. A refusal is publishable; a wrong level is not.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- —
- Since inception
- —
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 53.8% of 13
- 1 day
- —
- 7 day
- —
- Markets held
- 13
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- —
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 0
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 13 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 7c2.0¢ spread · 11.5k/10.1k within 5¢polymarketYES7c75c+971.4%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 8cpolymarketYES8c35c+360.7%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 54c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES54c49c−9.3%12.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 8cpolymarketYES8c3c−56.9%12.2%Polymarket ↗
- Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 11cpolymarketYES11c14c+22.7%11.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 71cpolymarketYES71c7c−90.8%8.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?polymarket · YES · entry 35c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES35c6c−81.6%7.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 73c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES73c94c+29.5%7.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 88cpolymarketYES88c9c−89.7%3.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 91cpolymarketYES91c7c−91.9%3.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 35c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES35c25c−28.6%3.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 35c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES35c27c−24.3%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 32c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES32c2c−92.7%0.9%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
- Previous
- 64.27
- Band
- Elevated
- 49d Range
- 4875
- Percentile
- 100th
- 13d Change
- +9.7
- Volatility
- 4.5 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 7
- Effective N
- 6.9
- Top Weight
- 15%
- Venues
- 7 P
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 7 sessions
97 hourly readings since 2026-10-22 · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
49d published · interactive49 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 44 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 49d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 45 readings, slope +0.15/day, projection σ 5.1 pts/d widened for a 45-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — InsidersInsiders
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — InsidersInsiders
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 7 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-11-14) · the basket below holds a different setWGOOG · at a glance
- What it is
- 7 tech-science markets carrying the "google" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how google is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Nov 14, 2026, the W.E.T. Google Tech Science Index 6mo (WGOOG) prints a WET Index Score of 74.7/100 (Elevated), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.