Readings may not describe today5 scheduled closes did not landWhy →Hide
5 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
W.E.T. Federal Economics Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStanding32 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "federal" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 7, severity frames 0 of 7, threshold frames 4 of 7), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (7)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 9403 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 50. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 9315, category-not-admitted 4, horizon-outside-window 34. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 34 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 9315 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - eligibility: 20 of 50 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 15, spread-too-wide 3, price-above-ceiling 1, below-min-volume 1. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:coverage], framing 9 of 30 members and holding 0 of them NO. The declared threshold axis frames 9 of 30 members (30%), under the published 50% bar, so it takes no force today and no member is flipped by it. An axis that frames a corner of the board would state a direction for members it never read. This is the spec's own invalidation condition, measured rather than assumed. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- orientation: because the declared `threshold` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 1ec937e2412b5b92 · methodology 26726598db096bb6 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 22, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
30 economics markets carrying the "federal" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
No level published — the replayed series does not reconcile with this book. The replay ends +30.3% from base while the book's own closed and open positions give +62.0% — a 32-point disagreement. This book's units were resized by a rebalance without a new open date, so its day-one sizing is not recoverable from anything on disk and the history cannot be replayed honestly. A refusal is publishable; a wrong level is not.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- —
- Since inception
- —
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 48.2% of 56
- 1 day
- —
- 7 day
- —
- Markets held
- 56
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- —
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 0
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 56 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?kalshi · NO · entry 84c2 sessions stale0.4¢ spread · —/— within 5¢kalshiNO84c95c+12.6%15.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 95c1.0¢ spread · none/1144.3k within 5¢kalshiNO95c99c+4.8%15.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 98ckalshiNO98c99c+1.0%15.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 24ckalshiYES24c68c+187.2%10.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2ckalshiYES2c2c−25.0%3.9%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 98c5 sessions stalekalshiYES98c98c0.0%3.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94c5 sessions stalekalshiYES94c99c+5.9%3.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 5c5 sessions stalekalshiYES5c35c+666.7%2.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 8c5 sessions stalekalshiYES8c57c+666.7%1.9%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 92c4.0¢ spread · 53.2k/8.3k within 5¢kalshiNO92c98c+6.6%1.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 3c6 sessions stalekalshiYES3c2c−40.0%1.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 71ckalshiYES71c32c−55.6%1.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2ckalshiYES2c2c−25.0%1.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 68ckalshiYES68c24c−65.2%1.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 89c5 sessions stalekalshiYES89c94c+5.1%1.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 98c5 sessions stalekalshiYES98c98c+0.5%1.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 26ckalshiYES26c71c+176.5%1.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95c5 sessions stalekalshiYES95c97c+2.1%0.9%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95c5 sessions stalekalshiYES95c97c+2.6%0.9%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c41c+729.0%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93c5 sessions stalekalshiYES93c95c+2.7%0.8%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94c5 sessions stalekalshiYES94c97c+3.2%0.8%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 3c6 sessions stalekalshiYES3c3c0.0%0.8%Kalshi ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.?polymarket · YES · entry 87cpolymarketYES87c97c+12.0%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93c5 sessions stalekalshiYES93c93c0.0%0.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 84c5 sessions stalekalshiYES84c98c+16.8%0.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94c5 sessions stalekalshiYES94c96c+2.7%0.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95c5 sessions stalekalshiYES95c96c+1.6%0.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 53c5 sessions stalekalshiYES53c99c+85.8%0.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94c5 sessions stalekalshiYES94c97c+2.7%0.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93c5 sessions stalekalshiYES93c95c+2.2%0.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 91c5 sessions stalekalshiYES91c95c+4.4%0.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 90c5 sessions stalekalshiYES90c93c+3.3%0.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.?polymarket · YES · entry 6cpolymarketYES6c3c−44.2%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 19c5 sessions stalekalshiYES19c85c+356.8%0.5%Kalshi ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.?polymarket · YES · entry 3cpolymarketYES3c4c+14.7%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in Micron Technology, Inc.?polymarket · YES · entry 8cpolymarketYES8c10c+25.0%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?polymarket · YES · entry 13cpolymarketYES13c17c+30.8%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c1c−89.0%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 5ckalshiYES5c2c−70.0%0.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 90ckalshiNO90c99c+9.4%0.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in NVIDIA Corporation?polymarket · YES · entry 14cpolymarketYES14c13c−10.3%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 10c5 sessions stalekalshiYES10c42c+336.8%0.4%Kalshi ↗
- Jerome Powell federally charged by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 4cpolymarketYES4c1c−70.5%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 14cpolymarketYES14c49c+255.8%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 22ckalshiYES22c36c+65.1%0.3%Kalshi ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in Freeport-McMoRan Inc.?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c10c+5.6%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in The Boeing Company?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c9c+5.9%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC or Bytedance?polymarket · YES · entry 4cpolymarketYES4c3c−7.1%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.?polymarket · YES · entry 20cpolymarketYES20c19c−5.1%0.2%Polymarket ↗
Showing the 50 heaviest of 56 constituents by weight. See the full book →
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
- Previous
- —
- Band
- Moderate
- 28d Range
- 2767
- Percentile
- 93th
- 8d Change
- +28.3
- Volatility
- 10.2 pts/d
- Streak
- 3d up
- Markets
- 30
- Effective N
- 11.3
- Top Weight
- 15%
- Venues
- 9 K · 21 P
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 6 sessions
133 hourly readings since 2026-09-22 · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
28d published · interactive28 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 12 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 28d published · dashed = projected · no band publishedModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 28 readings, slope -0.03/day, projection σ 12.2 pts/d widened for a 28-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 30 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different setShow the remaining 10 holdingsHide the remaining 10 holdings
Where these markets are covered
2 of 30 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
WFEDE · at a glance
- What it is
- 30 economics markets carrying the "federal" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how federal is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
Embed this score
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Federal Economics Index 6mo (WFEDE) prints a WET Index Score of 59.2/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.