WFEDE
W.E.T. Federal Economics Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingGoverned close level
—
no level published
Gauge
41.17
0–100 · rung 6
Divisor
—
what chains this level to the last
Closes
53
latest 2026-11-14
Coverage
41 of 41 admitted markets pricedκ 1.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel
7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
What would make this reading wrong
- The "federal" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 7, severity frames 0 of 7, threshold frames 4 of 7), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (6)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 75. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 16265, category-not-admitted 7, horizon-outside-window 183. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 183 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 16265 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - eligibility: 34 of 75 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: below-min-volume 16, price-above-ceiling 11, price-below-floor 4, spread-too-wide 3. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 41 of 41 members and holding 2 of them NO. 39 of 41 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
Why there are two levels on this page
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 1ec937e2412b5b92 · methodology 26726598db096bb6 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
41.17−1.50 (−3.52%)Moderate & climbing, volatile
As of Nov 14, 2026 · last moved Nov 14, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
41 economics markets carrying the "federal" axis across kalshi, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
Basket level · official print55 held · close 2026-11-14
1091.72+9.17%since inception · base 1000
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1091.72
- Since inception
- +9.17%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 54.5% of 55
- 1 day
- −0.75%
- 7 day
- +6.22%
- Markets held
- 55
- Settled
- 1
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 53.1%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 55
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 55 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differsMarketVenueEntryNowReturnWt
- Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?kalshi · NO · entry 84c0.2¢ spread · 11.3k/29.6k within 5¢kalshiNO84c98c+16.5%15.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 98c14 sessions stalekalshiNO98c99c+1.0%15.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 24c17 sessions stalekalshiYES24c19c−21.3%10.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2c17 sessions stalekalshiYES2c1c−50.0%3.9%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 98ckalshiYES98c99c+1.5%3.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94c18 sessions stalekalshiYES94c99c+5.9%3.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 5ckalshiYES5c10c+111.1%2.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 8c17 sessions stalekalshiYES8c21c+173.3%1.9%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 92ckalshiNO92c99c+7.7%1.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 3c15 sessions stalekalshiYES3c1c−60.0%1.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 71c15 sessions stalekalshiYES71c83c+16.2%1.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2ckalshiYES2c10c+375.0%1.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 68ckalshiYES68c3c−96.3%1.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 89ckalshiYES89c98c+10.1%1.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 98ckalshiYES98c99c+1.0%1.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 26ckalshiYES26c86c+235.3%1.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95ckalshiYES95c99c+4.2%0.9%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95c2 sessions stalekalshiYES95c99c+4.2%0.9%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c7c+49.0%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93ckalshiYES93c99c+6.5%0.8%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94ckalshiYES94c99c+5.3%0.8%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 3ckalshiYES3c1c−60.0%0.8%Kalshi ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.?polymarket · YES · entry 87c22 sessions stalepolymarketYES87c97c+12.0%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93ckalshiYES93c98c+5.4%0.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 84ckalshiYES84c99c+18.6%0.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94ckalshiYES94c98c+4.8%0.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95ckalshiYES95c99c+4.2%0.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 53ckalshiYES53c99c+86.8%0.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94ckalshiYES94c99c+4.8%0.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93ckalshiYES93c99c+5.9%0.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 91ckalshiYES91c98c+7.1%0.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 90ckalshiYES90c98c+8.3%0.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.?polymarket · YES · entry 6c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES6c7c+22.5%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 19ckalshiYES19c97c+421.6%0.5%Kalshi ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.?polymarket · YES · entry 3c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES3c5c+44.1%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in Micron Technology, Inc.?polymarket · YES · entry 8c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES8c6c−25.0%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?polymarket · YES · entry 13cpolymarketYES13c4c−67.7%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c1c−89.0%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 5c3 sessions stalekalshiYES5c2c−60.0%0.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 90ckalshiNO90c99c+10.0%0.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in NVIDIA Corporation?polymarket · YES · entry 14c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES14c8c−44.8%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 10ckalshiYES10c58c+510.5%0.4%Kalshi ↗
- Jerome Powell federally charged by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 4c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES4c2c−61.5%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 14cpolymarketYES14c89c+541.4%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 22ckalshiYES22c63c+190.7%0.3%Kalshi ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in Freeport-McMoRan Inc.?polymarket · YES · entry 9c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES9c8c−11.1%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in The Boeing Company?polymarket · YES · entry 9c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES9c6c−35.3%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC or Bytedance?polymarket · YES · entry 4c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES4c4c+17.1%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.?polymarket · YES · entry 20c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES20c28c+43.6%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in Eli Lilly and Company?polymarket · YES · entry 9c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES9c10c+16.1%0.2%Polymarket ↗
Showing the 50 heaviest of 55 constituents by weight. See the full book →
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
- Previous
- 42.63
- Band
- Moderate
- 53d Range
- 2767
- Percentile
- 51th
- 9d Change
- −2.9
- Volatility
- 10.1 pts/d
- Streak
- 2d down
- Markets
- 41
- Effective N
- 16.9
- Top Weight
- 15%
- Venues
- 41 K
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 5 sessions
97 hourly readings since 2026-10-22 · not the governed closeLatest
42.25
Since 2026-10-22
+10.44
Range
29.2–47.3
Readings
8+89 refused
INDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
53d published · interactive53 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 40 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 53d published · dashed = projected · no band publishedProjected 14d
40.30
Change
−0.90
80% band
not published — the 14d dispersion is wider than the 0–100 scale
Confidence
low
Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 45 readings, slope -0.13/day, projection σ 11.5 pts/d widened for a 45-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — Insiders🔒
Insiders
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
Checking access…
What moved today
attribution — Insiders🔒
Insiders
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Checking access…
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueeconomics100% · 41
Constituents by weight
all 41 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-11-14) · the basket below holds a different setShow the remaining 21 holdingsHide the remaining 21 holdings
WFEDE · at a glance
- What it is
- 41 economics markets carrying the "federal" axis across kalshi, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how federal is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Nov 14, 2026, the W.E.T. Federal Economics Index 6mo (WFEDE) prints a WET Index Score of 41.2/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.