WFEDE
W.E.T. Federal Economics Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingGoverned close level
—
no level published
Gauge
49.33
0–100 · rung 6
Divisor
—
what chains this level to the last
Closes
17
latest 2026-09-08
Coverage
27 of 27 admitted markets pricedκ 1.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel
46 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
What would make this reading wrong
- The "federal" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 7, severity frames 0 of 7, threshold frames 4 of 7), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (7)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 13681 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 40. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 13634, category-not-admitted 5, horizon-outside-window 2. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 2 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 13634 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - eligibility: 13 of 40 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 10, below-min-volume 2, spread-too-wide 1. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:coverage], framing 3 of 27 members and holding 0 of them NO. The declared threshold axis frames 3 of 27 members (11%), under the published 50% bar, so it takes no force today and no member is flipped by it. An axis that frames a corner of the board would state a direction for members it never read. This is the spec's own invalidation condition, measured rather than assumed. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- orientation: because the declared `threshold` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
Why there are two levels on this page
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 1ec937e2412b5b92 · methodology 26726598db096bb6 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
49.33−2.60 (−5.01%)Moderate & climbing, volatile
As of Sep 8, 2026 · last moved Sep 8, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
27 economics markets carrying the "federal" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
Basket level · official print56 held · close 2026-09-08
1010.59+1.06%since inception · base 1000
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1010.59
- Since inception
- +1.06%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 35.7% of 56
- 1 day
- −0.01%
- 7 day
- +1.82%
- Markets held
- 56
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 49.5%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 18
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 56 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differsMarketVenueEntryNowReturnWt
- Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?kalshi · NO · entry 84c1.1¢ spread · 2.0k/15.8k within 5¢kalshiNO84c89c+5.3%15.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 95c2 sessions stalekalshiNO95c96c+1.1%15.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 98c2 sessions stalekalshiNO98c99c+0.5%15.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 24ckalshiYES24c27c+12.8%10.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2ckalshiYES2c2c−25.0%3.9%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 98c2 sessions stalekalshiYES98c97c−1.0%3.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94c2 sessions stalekalshiYES94c97c+3.2%3.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 5c2 sessions stalekalshiYES5c6c+33.3%2.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 8c2 sessions stalekalshiYES8c7c−6.7%1.9%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 92c2.0¢ spread · —/— within 5¢kalshiNO92c88c−3.8%1.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 3c2 sessions stalekalshiYES3c1c−60.0%1.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 71ckalshiYES71c69c−3.5%1.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2c2 sessions stalekalshiYES2c3c+25.0%1.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 68ckalshiYES68c49c−28.1%1.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 89c2 sessions stalekalshiYES89c90c+0.6%1.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 98c2 sessions stalekalshiYES98c98c0.0%1.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 26ckalshiYES26c42c+62.7%1.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95c2 sessions stalekalshiYES95c95c−0.5%0.9%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95c2 sessions stalekalshiYES95c95c0.0%0.9%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c5c+2.0%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93c2 sessions stalekalshiYES93c93c0.0%0.8%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94c2 sessions stalekalshiYES94c95c+1.6%0.8%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 3c2 sessions stalekalshiYES3c1c−60.0%0.8%Kalshi ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.?polymarket · YES · entry 87cpolymarketYES87c82c−5.3%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93c2 sessions stalekalshiYES93c92c−1.1%0.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 84c2 sessions stalekalshiYES84c92c+10.2%0.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94c2 sessions stalekalshiYES94c94c+0.5%0.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95c2 sessions stalekalshiYES95c95c0.0%0.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 53c2 sessions stalekalshiYES53c79c+49.1%0.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94c2 sessions stalekalshiYES94c95c+0.5%0.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93c2 sessions stalekalshiYES93c93c0.0%0.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 91c2 sessions stalekalshiYES91c93c+1.6%0.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 90c2 sessions stalekalshiYES90c90c−0.6%0.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.?polymarket · YES · entry 6cpolymarketYES6c4c−33.3%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 19c2 sessions stalekalshiYES19c38c+102.7%0.5%Kalshi ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.?polymarket · YES · entry 3cpolymarketYES3c4c+30.9%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in Micron Technology, Inc.?polymarket · YES · entry 8cpolymarketYES8c10c+18.8%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?polymarket · YES · entry 13cpolymarketYES13c13c−3.8%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c7c−20.3%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 5ckalshiYES5c7c+30.0%0.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 90c2 sessions stalekalshiNO90c95c+5.0%0.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in NVIDIA Corporation?polymarket · YES · entry 14cpolymarketYES14c14c−3.4%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 10c2 sessions stalekalshiYES10c11c+10.5%0.4%Kalshi ↗
- Jerome Powell federally charged by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 4cpolymarketYES4c2c−37.2%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 14cpolymarketYES14c21c+53.6%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 22ckalshiYES22c22c0.0%0.3%Kalshi ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in Freeport-McMoRan Inc.?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c11c+22.2%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in The Boeing Company?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c7c−17.6%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC or Bytedance?polymarket · YES · entry 4cpolymarketYES4c4c+4.3%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.?polymarket · YES · entry 20cpolymarketYES20c19c−5.1%0.2%Polymarket ↗
Showing the 50 heaviest of 56 constituents by weight. See the full book →
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
- Previous
- 51.92
- Band
- Moderate
- 17d Range
- 3960
- Percentile
- 77th
- 9d Change
- −3.0
- Volatility
- 8.4 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 27
- Effective N
- 15.5
- Top Weight
- 15%
- Venues
- 3 K · 24 P
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 7 sessions
142 hourly readings since 2026-08-25 · not the governed closeLatest
50.60
Since 2026-08-25
+9.39
Range
39.6–54.8
Readings
39+103 refused
INDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
17d published · interactive17 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 9 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 17d published · dashed = projected · no band publishedProjected 14d
52.20
Change
+2.90
80% band
not published — the 14d dispersion is wider than the 0–100 scale
Confidence
low
Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 17 readings, slope +0.41/day, projection σ 11.2 pts/d widened for a 17-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — Premium🔒
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The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
Checking access…
What moved today
attribution — Premium🔒
Premium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Checking access…
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueeconomics75% · 24unclassified25% · 3
Constituents by weight
all 27 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-08) · the basket below holds a different setShow the remaining 7 holdingsHide the remaining 7 holdings
Where these markets are covered
2 of 27 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
WFEDE · at a glance
- What it is
- 27 economics markets carrying the "federal" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how federal is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 8, 2026, the W.E.T. Federal Economics Index 6mo (WFEDE) prints a WET Index Score of 49.3/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.