Readings may not describe today48 scheduled closes did not landWhy →
48 behind

48 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.

Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes

WHOUS

W.E.T. House Elections Index 2yr

v1StandingExperimentalStanding
Governed close level
—
no level published
Gauge
60.52
0–100 · rung 6
Divisor
—
what chains this level to the last
Closes
13
latest 2026-09-22
Coverage
85 of 85 admitted markets pricedκ 1.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel

32 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.

What would make this reading wrong
  • The "house" axis stops appearing in elections titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
  • Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
  • A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 20, severity frames 0 of 20, threshold frames 1 of 20), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (6)
  • universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 9403 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 743. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 8381, category-not-admitted 53, horizon-unknown 1, horizon-outside-window 225.
  • universe: the declared 200–730d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 225 event(s) that every other selector admitted, plus 1 whose resolution date this source does not carry. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
  • universe: 8381 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
  • eligibility: 658 of 743 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: below-min-volume 650, price-below-floor 8. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
  • orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 54 of 85 members and holding 0 of them NO. 54 of 54 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
  • no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
Why there are two levels on this page

The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-09-07, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.

The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.

They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.

spec 335f85e1eaffda15 · methodology 5291be4cba946900 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing

60.52Stale · 48 closes behindElevated & climbing, volatile

As of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 22, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)

85 elections markets carrying the "house" axis across kalshi, polymarket, every one resolving inside two years, tracked as one composition.

Basket level · official print13 held · close 2026-11-05
898.27−10.17%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
898.27
Since inception
−10.17%
Cost to cross
1.34pts
Holdings marked
23.1% of 13
1 day
+0.52%
7 day
−8.41%
Markets held
13
Settled
2
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
55.7%
Inception
2026-09-07
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
37

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 13 markets

held since 2026-09-07 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will Democratic win the House race for SC-06?kalshi · YES · entry 95c2 sessions stale1.6¢ spread · 4.8k/301.8k within 5¢99c+4.3%↗
  • Will Republican win the House race for VA-05?kalshi · YES · entry 85c2.0¢ spread · 2.5k/16.1k within 5¢98c+16.5%↗
  • Who will win the 2026 CA-14 House election?kalshi · YES · entry 88c2 sessions stale95c+7.4%↗
  • Will Republican win the House race for AZ-05?kalshi · YES · entry 92c3.6¢ spread · 501/5.7k within 5¢94c+3.0%↗
  • Will Democratic win the House race for MN-04?kalshi · YES · entry 96c2 sessions stale3.8¢ spread · 1.5k/51.7k within 5¢99c+3.0%↗
  • Will Republican win the House race for WI-06?kalshi · YES · entry 88c2 sessions stale2.4¢ spread · 639/203.7k within 5¢92c+4.9%↗
  • Will Republican win the House race for SC-01?kalshi · YES · entry 75c5.0¢ spread · 17.4k/1.0k within 5¢1c−98.7%↗
  • Will Republican win the House race for NY-21?kalshi · YES · entry 74c2.0¢ spread · 3.1k/5.2k within 5¢96c+31.0%↗
  • Will Democratic win the House race for FL-14?kalshi · YES · entry 62c2 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 2.1k/13.8k within 5¢76c+21.8%↗
  • Will Democratic win the House race for TX-07?kalshi · YES · entry 94c2 sessions stale3.3¢ spread · 723/35.7k within 5¢99c+4.9%↗
  • Will Democratic win the House race for CA-52?kalshi · YES · entry 96c3 sessions stale98c+2.4%↗
  • Will Democratic win the House race for GA-02?kalshi · YES · entry 97c3 sessions stale2.0¢ spread · 539/201.9k within 5¢98c+1.2%↗
  • Will Democratic win the House race for OR-06?kalshi · YES · entry 96c2 sessions stale3.0¢ spread · 417/105.1k within 5¢99c+3.5%↗

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

Key statistics

Previous
—
Band
Elevated
13d Range
3472
Percentile
85th
8d Change
+25.8
Volatility
16.6 pts/d
Streak
—
Markets
85
Effective N
31.1
Top Weight
10%
Venues
72 K · 13 P
Method
v1

Indicative tape · 4 sessions

120 hourly readings since 2026-10-19 · not the governed close
35.035.536.036.537.010-19 00:0010-28 02:0011-06 04:00
Latest
36.45
Since 2026-10-19
+1.68
Range
34.8–36.9
Readings
75+45 refused

INDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.

Daily close

13d published · interactive

13 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 3 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.

History & 14-day projection

solid = 13d published · dashed = projected · no band published
020406080100now62
Projected 14d
62.00
Change
+1.50
80% band
not published — the 14d dispersion is wider than the 0–100 scale
Confidence
low

Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 13 readings, slope +0.21/day, projection σ 23.4 pts/d widened for a 13-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.

Desk read

W.E.T. analysis — Premium
🔒

Premium

The desk's read on today's move

Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.

Checking access…

What moved today

attribution — Premium
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Premium

Which markets moved the index, and by how much

Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.

Checking access…

Contribution by category

weight share of today's value
unclassified100% · 85

Constituents by weight

all 85 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different set
Show the remaining 65 holdings

Where these markets are covered

2 of 85 constituents have a W.E.T. page

The odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.

WHOUS · at a glance

What it is
85 elections markets carrying the "house" axis across kalshi, polymarket, every one resolving inside two years, tracked as one composition.
High vs low
Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Who cares
Anyone tracking how house is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 730 days.

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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date
“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. House Elections Index 2yr (WHOUS) prints a WET Index Score of 60.5/100 (Elevated), per World Event Trading.”

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Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.