The Markets Desk
The money side of the tape.
Dated crypto, commodity, index, and macro market snapshots from Kalshi and Polymarket, with the corpus observed through November 5, 2026. Bitcoin and Ethereum price ladders, gold and oil strikes, the S&P, and Fed and CPI decisions. The news desks lead the site; this desk preserves what the numbers showed when captured.
$594M comparable USD-reported volume across 71 open-status snapshots; contract counts and mixed units excluded
What the snapshot captured
price laddersEven odds to reach
—/—
down / up, at 50% or better
Where the weight is
49% below
roughly two-sided
Rungs priced
24
thresholds with a recorded mark
Even odds to reach
$77,500/$85,000
down / up, at 50% or better
Where the weight is
48% below
roughly two-sided
Rungs priced
18
thresholds with a recorded mark
Crypto
coins & tokens19Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? — Odds
Yes at 3% · Polymarket · $25M vol
Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch? — Odds
$150M at 73% · Polymarket · $4.1M vol
Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch? — Odds
$100M at 7% · Polymarket · $7M vol
Puffpaw FDV above ___ one day after launch? — Odds
$50M at 41% · Polymarket · $5.6M vol
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? — Odds
↑ 90,000 at 39% · Polymarket · $81.8M vol
What price will Bitcoin hit in November 2026? — Odds
↑ 82,500 at 76% · Polymarket · $3M vol
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026? — Odds
↓ 2,000 at 26% · Polymarket · $19.3M vol
What price will Solana hit in 2026? — Odds & Probability
↓ 80 at 36% · Polymarket · $2.4M vol
When will Bitcoin hit $150k? — Odds & Probability
by December 31, 2027 at 22% · Polymarket · $27.3M vol
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? — Odds
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? at 2% · Polymarket · $5.6M vol
STRC hits $100 by… — Odds & Probability
December 31 at 77% · Polymarket · $1.6M vol
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026? — Odds
↑ 100 at 55% · Polymarket · $2.7M vol
Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch? — Odds
$300M at 12% · Polymarket · $3.4M vol
Ethereum all time high by ___? — Odds & Probability
December 31, 2026 at 2% · Polymarket · $2.7M vol
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? — Odds & Probability
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? at 2% · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Ink FDV above ___ one day after launch? — Odds
$100M at 26% · Polymarket · $1M vol
StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch? — Odds
$2B at 3% · Polymarket · $1.8M vol
Pump.fun airdrop by ....? — Odds & Probability
December 31, 2026 at 18% · Polymarket · $2.8M vol
Bitcoin all time high by ___? — Odds & Probability
December 31, 2026 at 7% · Polymarket · $10.5M vol
Commodities & Indices
gold · oil · S&P34Anthropic IPO by __? — Odds & Probability
December 31, 2026 at 91% · Polymarket · $6.4M vol
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? — Odds
December 31 at 8% · Polymarket · $18M vol
Crude Oil all time high by...? — Odds & Probability
March 31, 2027 at 18% · Polymarket · $5.6M vol
IPOs before 2027? — Odds & Probability
Anthropic at 91% · Polymarket · $7.7M vol
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31 at 5% · Polymarket · $77.3M vol
Largest Company end of December 2026? — Odds
Apple at 60% · Polymarket · $9.6M vol
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? — Odds & Probability
SpaceX at 70% · Polymarket · $7.5M vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December
Yes at 11% · Polymarket · $16.7M vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November
Yes at 4% · Polymarket · $1.5M vol
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? — Odds
March 31 at 71% · Polymarket · $48M vol
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 at 36% · Polymarket · $3.7M vol
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in November 2026?
↓ $85 at 80% · Polymarket · $1.2M vol
When will any company achieve AGI? — Odds & Probability
Before Jan 1, 2030 at 80% · Kalshi · 224.1K contracts vol
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? — Odds
↑$1.5T at 92% · Polymarket · $6.6M vol
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.3% at 31% · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap — Odds & Probability
No IPO by December 31, 2026 at 96% · Polymarket · $2.6M vol
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 at 12% · Polymarket · $3.6M vol
Will GameStop acquire eBay? — Odds & Probability
Will GameStop acquire eBay? at 5% · Polymarket · $3.3M vol
AI bubble burst by...? — Odds & Probability
June 30, 2027 at 23% · Polymarket · $3.1M vol
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...? — Odds
December 31 at 31% · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31? — Odds
↑$1.25T at 99% · Polymarket · $1.3M vol
Which companies will be acquired before 2027? — Odds
Viking Therapeutics at 14% · Polymarket · $18.4M vol
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December 2027?
↑ $4,500 at 50% · Polymarket · $2.5M vol
Which CEOs will be out before 2027? — Odds & Probability
Andy Jassy - Amazon at 7% · Polymarket · $715.9K vol
Fed rate cut by...? — Odds & Probability
July 2027 Meeting at 49% · Polymarket · $3.7M vol
Largest Company end of December 2026? — Odds
NVIDIA at 71% · Polymarket · $7.4M vol
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? — Odds
↑$1.5T at 90% · Polymarket · $4.9M vol
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? — Odds & Probability
0 (0 bps) at 96% · Polymarket · $53.1M vol
OpenAI IPO by...? — Odds & Probability
June 30, 2027 at 56% · Polymarket · $3M vol
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31? — Odds
↑$1.0T at 83% · Polymarket · $1.2M vol
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December 2026?
↑ $4,500 at 50% · Polymarket · $1.7M vol
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
3.9% at 16% · Polymarket · $231.2K vol
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? — Odds
Yes at 13% · Polymarket · $102.3K vol
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? — Odds
Yes at 24% · Polymarket · $52.1K vol
Macro & Rates
Fed · CPI · jobs18Another Fed rate hike in 2026? — Odds & Probability
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? at 78% · Polymarket · $1.4M vol
Fed Decision in December 2026? — Odds & Probability
25 bps increase at 78% · Polymarket · $13M vol
Fed Decision in January 2027? — Odds & Probability
No change at 78% · Polymarket · $1.2M vol
How high will inflation get in 2026? — Odds
Above 4.5% at 13% · Polymarket · $1.5M vol
US recession by end of 2026? — Odds & Probability
US recession by end of 2026? at 5% · Polymarket · $2.4M vol
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? — Odds & Probability
↑ 4.25% at 77% · Polymarket · $1.9M vol
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? — Odds & Probability
2 (50 bps) at 73% · Polymarket · $1.5M vol
Next Fed rate hike? — Odds & Probability
Before 2029 at 98% · Kalshi · 187.9K contracts vol
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? — Odds
4.25% at 78% · Polymarket · $7.1M vol
When will Oura officially announce an IPO? — Odds
Before Jul 1, 2027 at 80% · Kalshi · 58.8K contracts vol
Next Fed rate cut? — Odds & Probability
Before 2029 at 82% · Kalshi
China Annual GDP Growth 2026 — Odds & Probability
4.0–5.0% at 96% · Polymarket · $944.2K vol
How high will inflation get in 2026? — Odds
Above 4.5% at 18% · Polymarket · $1.5M vol
Fed Decision in December 2026? — Odds & Probability
25 bps increase at 68% · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? — Odds
4.25% at 54% · Polymarket · $6.9M vol
Fed rate hike in 2026? — Odds & Probability
Fed rate hike in 2026? at 96% · Polymarket · $9.8M vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December
Yes at 18% · Polymarket · $11.8M vol
Which companies will the US take a stake in? — Odds
GlobalFoundries at 94% · Polymarket · $177.2K vol
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W.E.T. is an information and data service, not a financial adviser or a gambling operator — these are market-implied odds, not investment advice. Prediction markets carry risk and may be restricted where you live. See our methodology.
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