The Markets Desk
The money side of the tape.
Dated crypto, commodity, index, and macro market snapshots from Kalshi and Polymarket, with the corpus observed through September 5, 2026. Bitcoin and Ethereum price ladders, gold and oil strikes, the S&P, and Fed and CPI decisions. The news desks lead the site; this desk preserves what the numbers showed when captured.
$372.8M comparable USD-reported volume across 76 open-status snapshots; contract counts and mixed units excluded
What the snapshot captured
price laddersEven odds to reach
—/$80,000
down / up, at 50% or better
Where the weight is
21% below
priced to travel up
Rungs priced
15
thresholds with a recorded mark
Even odds to reach
$70,000/$90,000
down / up, at 50% or better
Where the weight is
52% below
roughly two-sided
Rungs priced
24
thresholds with a recorded mark
Crypto
coins & tokens15Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? — Odds
Yes at 14% · Polymarket · $14M vol
What price will Bitcoin hit August 31-September 6?
↑ 80,000 at 66% · Polymarket · $1.3M vol
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? — Odds
↓ 75,000 at 78% · Polymarket · $63.5M vol
What price will Bitcoin hit in September 2026? — Odds
↑ 80,000 at 96% · Polymarket · $2.6M vol
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026? — Odds
↑ 2,750 at 68% · Polymarket · $13.6M vol
Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch? — Odds
$100M at 12% · Polymarket · $3.2M vol
Puffpaw FDV above ___ one day after launch? — Odds
$50M at 28% · Polymarket · $5.5M vol
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026? — Odds
↑ 90 at 87% · Polymarket · $2.2M vol
What price will Solana hit in 2026? — Odds & Probability
↑ 120 at 65% · Polymarket · $1.8M vol
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? — Odds
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? at 5% · Polymarket · $4.9M vol
Bitcoin all time high by ___? — Odds & Probability
December 31, 2026 at 7% · Polymarket · $9.9M vol
Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch? — Odds
What price will Ethereum hit August 31-September 6?
↓ 2,300 at 48% · Polymarket · $137.6K vol
What price will Ethereum hit in September 2026? — Odds
↓ 2,300 at 82% · Polymarket · $179K vol
What price will Solana hit in September 2026? — Odds
↓ 90 at 55% · Polymarket · $39.6K vol
Commodities & Indices
gold · oil · S&P32Fed rate hike by...? — Odds & Probability
October Meeting at 62% · Polymarket · $2.8M vol
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? — Odds & Probability
0 (0 bps) at 93% · Polymarket · $51.3M vol
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 at 28% · Polymarket · $2.8M vol
Largest Company end of December 2026? — Odds
NVIDIA at 80% · Polymarket · $6.7M vol
Largest Company end of September 2026? — Odds
NVIDIA at 95% · Polymarket · $1.2M vol
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? — Odds & Probability
Anthropic at 55% · Polymarket · $5.9M vol
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December 2026?
↑ $5,000 at 51% · Polymarket · $1.6M vol
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
↓ $90 at 93% · Polymarket · $1.3M vol
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31? — Odds
↑$1.0T at 81% · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
AI bubble burst by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31, 2026 at 14% · Polymarket · $3M vol
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? — Odds
December 31 at 16% · Polymarket · $12.2M vol
Crude Oil all time high by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 at 10% · Polymarket · $3.3M vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September
Yes at 2% · Polymarket · $7.8M vol
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? — Odds
↑$1.5T at 95% · Polymarket · $4.5M vol
Will GameStop acquire eBay? — Odds & Probability
Will GameStop acquire eBay? at 7% · Polymarket · $2.9M vol
IPOs before 2027? — Odds & Probability
Anthropic at 95% · Polymarket · $7.1M vol
OpenAI IPO by...? — Odds & Probability
March 31, 2027 at 51% · Polymarket · $2.9M vol
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap — Odds & Probability
No IPO by December 31, 2026 at 93% · Polymarket · $2.1M vol
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? — Odds
September 30 at 18% · Polymarket · $781.3K vol
2nd Largest Company end of September 2026? — Odds
Apple at 86% · Polymarket · $74.2K vol
3rd Largest Company end of September 2026? — Odds
Alphabet at 82% · Polymarket · $106.9K vol
Bank of England decision in September 2026? — Odds
No change at 97% · Polymarket · $224.2K vol
Bank of Mexico Decision in September 2026? — Odds
No change at 96% · Polymarket · $50.4K vol
Bank of Russia decision in September 2026? — Odds
No Change at 61% · Polymarket · $129.3K vol
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
4.8% at 95% · Polymarket · $294.8K vol
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
3.9% at 16% · Polymarket · $231.2K vol
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? — Odds
Yes at 13% · Polymarket · $102.3K vol
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? — Odds
Yes at 24% · Polymarket · $52.1K vol
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in September 2026? — Odds
↑ $770 at 70% · Polymarket · $41.5K vol
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...? — Odds
September 30 at 10% · Polymarket · $329K vol
When will any company achieve AGI? — Odds & Probability
Before Jan 1, 2031 at 80% · Kalshi · 83.3K contracts vol
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...? — Odds
September 30 at 27% · Polymarket · $312.2K vol
Macro & Rates
Fed · CPI · jobs29Fed Decision in October 2026? — Odds & Probability
No change at 68% · Polymarket · $1.3M vol
Fed Decision in September 2026? — Odds & Probability
25 bps increase at 51% · Polymarket · $97.7M vol
How high will inflation get in 2026? — Odds
Above 4.5% at 13% · Polymarket · $1.4M vol
Fed rate hike in 2026? — Odds & Probability
Fed rate hike in 2026? at 72% · Polymarket · $8.7M vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December
Yes at 27% · Polymarket · $10.4M vol
US recession by end of 2026? — Odds & Probability
US recession by end of 2026? at 7% · Polymarket · $1.7M vol
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? — Odds & Probability
↑ 4.25% at 25% · Polymarket · $1.8M vol
August 2026 Inflation US - Annual — Odds & Probability
3.4% at 47% · Polymarket · $53.8K vol
Bank of Brazil decision in September 2026? — Odds
25 bps decrease at 95% · Polymarket · $131K vol
Bank of Canada Decision in October 2026? — Odds
No Change at 92% · Polymarket · $46.8K vol
Bank of Japan Decision in October 2026? — Odds
No change at 92% · Polymarket · $57.8K vol
Bank of Japan Decision in September 2026? — Odds
25 bps increase at 98% · Polymarket · $483.8K vol
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026 — Odds & Probability
No change at 88% · Polymarket · $51.3K vol
ECB Interest Rates: September 2026 — Odds & Probability
25 bps increase at 99% · Polymarket · $314.2K vol
Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 — Odds & Probability
0.8-1.1% at 67% · Polymarket · $52.6K vol
Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) — Odds & Probability
Other at 67% · Polymarket · $733.7K vol
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) — Odds & Probability
Other at 60% · Polymarket · $823K vol
How many jobs added in August 2026? — Odds & Probability
50k – 100k at 30% · Polymarket · $40.8K vol
People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?
No Change at 94% · Polymarket · $49.8K vol
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September 2026
25 bps increase at 56% · Polymarket · $46.1K vol
South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026? — Odds
3.0–3.4% at 34% · Polymarket · $43.6K vol
What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on
$335K - $340K at 34% · Polymarket · $84.8K vol
What will the median home value in Miami be on
$1.089M - $1.125M at 45% · Polymarket · $64.5K vol
When will Fannie Mae officially announce an IPO? — Odds
Before Jun 1, 2027 at 25% · Kalshi · 28.1K contracts vol
When will Oura officially announce an IPO? — Odds
Before Jan 1, 2028 at 96% · Kalshi · 43.4K contracts vol
Which companies will the US take a stake in? — Odds
GlobalFoundries at 94% · Polymarket · $177.2K vol
What will the median home value in the Austin Metro
<$446K at 90% · Polymarket · $88.8K vol
What will the median home value in the US be on
<$419K at 57% · Polymarket · $61K vol
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026? — Odds & Probability
4.3-4.6% at 43% · Polymarket · $29.4K vol
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W.E.T. is an information and data service, not a financial adviser or a gambling operator — these are market-implied odds, not investment advice. Prediction markets carry risk and may be restricted where you live. See our methodology.
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