The Markets Desk

The money side of the tape.

Dated crypto, commodity, index, and macro market snapshots from Kalshi and Polymarket, with the corpus observed through September 10, 2026. Bitcoin and Ethereum price ladders, gold and oil strikes, the S&P, and Fed and CPI decisions. The news desks lead the site; this desk preserves what the numbers showed when captured.

$421.4M comparable USD-reported volume across 77 open-status snapshots; contract counts and mixed units excluded

What the snapshot captured

price ladders

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? — Odds

Favorite: ↓ 75,000 · 82% · $64.5M vol

Even odds to reach

$70,000/$85,000

down / up, at 50% or better

Where the weight is

57% below

roughly two-sided

Rungs priced

24

thresholds with a recorded mark

$170,000
2%
$160,000
2%
$150,000
3%
$140,000
5%
$130,000
6%
$120,000
9%
$110,000
13%
$100,000
23%
$95,000
30%
Full dated ladder

What price will Bitcoin hit in September 2026? — Odds

Favorite: ↓ 77,500 · 92% · $4.1M vol

Even odds to reach

$75,000/$82,500

down / up, at 50% or better

Where the weight is

54% below

roughly two-sided

Rungs priced

19

thresholds with a recorded mark

$100,000
3%
$97,500
4%
$95,000
6%
$92,500
8%
$90,000
14%
$87,500
22%
$85,000
35%
$82,500
52%
$80,000
78%
Full dated ladder

Crypto

coins & tokens13
Crypto

Bitcoin all time high by ___? — Odds & Probability

December 31, 2026 at 8% · Polymarket · $10.1M vol

8%47
Crypto

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? — Odds

Yes at 17% · Polymarket · $14.6M vol

17%52
Crypto

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? — Odds

↓ 75,000 at 82% · Polymarket · $64.5M vol

82%62
Crypto

What price will Bitcoin hit in September 2026? — Odds

↓ 77,500 at 92% · Polymarket · $4.1M vol

92%55
Crypto

What price will Ethereum hit in 2026? — Odds

↑ 2,750 at 69% · Polymarket · $13.9M vol

69%64
Crypto

What price will Ethereum hit in September 2026? — Odds

↓ 2,400 at 81% · Polymarket · $1.3M vol

81%58
Crypto

What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026? — Odds

↑ 90 at 81% · Polymarket · $2.3M vol

81%62
Crypto

What price will Solana hit in 2026? — Odds & Probability

↓ 90 at 64% · Polymarket · $1.9M vol

64%56
Crypto

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? — Odds

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? at 4% · Polymarket · $5M vol

4%55
Crypto

Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch? — Odds

$100M at 12% · Polymarket · $3.2M vol

12%52
Crypto

Puffpaw FDV above ___ one day after launch? — Odds

$50M at 28% · Polymarket · $5.5M vol

28%48
Crypto

Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch? — Odds

20
Crypto

What price will Solana hit in September 2026? — Odds

↓ 90 at 55% · Polymarket · $39.6K vol

55%41

Commodities & Indices

gold · oil · S&P35
Finances

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? — Odds

December 31 at 22% · Polymarket · $12.5M vol

22%56
Finances

Crude Oil all time high by...? — Odds & Probability

December 31 at 12% · Polymarket · $3.4M vol

12%53
Finances

Fed rate cut by...? — Odds & Probability

December Meeting at 7% · Polymarket · $3.4M vol

7%45
Finances

Fed rate hike by...? — Odds & Probability

October Meeting at 67% · Polymarket · $2.9M vol

67%66
Finances

IPOs before 2027? — Odds & Probability

Anthropic at 88% · Polymarket · $7.2M vol

88%56
Finances

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? — Odds & Probability

December 31 at 27% · Polymarket · $2.8M vol

27%64
Finances

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September

Yes at 1% · Polymarket · $8.2M vol

1%54
Finances

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?

↓ $95 at 88% · Polymarket · $2.3M vol

88%55
Finances

When will any company achieve AGI? — Odds & Probability

Before Jan 1, 2031 at 90% · Kalshi · 129.5K contracts vol

90%35
Finances

Largest Company end of December 2026? — Odds

NVIDIA at 79% · Polymarket · $7M vol

79%64
Finances

Largest Company end of September 2026? — Odds

NVIDIA at 98% · Polymarket · $1.5M vol

98%64
Finances

Which companies will be acquired before 2027? — Odds

MGM Resorts at 39% · Polymarket · $18.2M vol

39%58
Finances

Will GameStop acquire eBay? — Odds & Probability

Will GameStop acquire eBay? at 8% · Polymarket · $2.9M vol

8%43
Finances

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31? — Odds

↑$1.0T at 86% · Polymarket · $1.1M vol

86%59
Finances

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? — Odds & Probability

Anthropic at 59% · Polymarket · $6M vol

59%72
Finances

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap — Odds & Probability

No IPO by December 31, 2026 at 92% · Polymarket · $2.1M vol

92%52
Finances

What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December 2026?

↑ $4,500 at 50% · Polymarket · $1.6M vol

50%56
Finances

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? — Odds

↑$1.5T at 96% · Polymarket · $4.5M vol

96%64
Finances

When will Waymo officially announce an IPO? — Odds

Before Nov 1, 2027 at 25% · Kalshi · 21K contracts vol

25%36
Finances

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? — Odds & Probability

0 (0 bps) at 93% · Polymarket · $51.8M vol

93%67
Finances

AI bubble burst by...? — Odds & Probability

December 31, 2026 at 14% · Polymarket · $3M vol

14%42
Finances

OpenAI IPO by...? — Odds & Probability

March 31, 2027 at 51% · Polymarket · $2.9M vol

51%46
Finances

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? — Odds

September 30 at 18% · Polymarket · $781.3K vol

18%42
Finances

2nd Largest Company end of September 2026? — Odds

Apple at 86% · Polymarket · $74.2K vol

86%43
Finances

3rd Largest Company end of September 2026? — Odds

Alphabet at 82% · Polymarket · $106.9K vol

82%54
Finances

Bank of England decision in September 2026? — Odds

No change at 97% · Polymarket · $224.2K vol

97%62
Finances

Bank of Mexico Decision in September 2026? — Odds

No change at 96% · Polymarket · $50.4K vol

96%55
Finances

Bank of Russia decision in September 2026? — Odds

No Change at 61% · Polymarket · $129.3K vol

61%56
Finances

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.8% at 95% · Polymarket · $294.8K vol

95%60
Finances

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

3.9% at 16% · Polymarket · $231.2K vol

16%62
Finances

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? — Odds

Yes at 13% · Polymarket · $102.3K vol

13%32
Finances

SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? — Odds

Yes at 24% · Polymarket · $52.1K vol

24%29
Finances

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in September 2026? — Odds

↑ $770 at 70% · Polymarket · $41.5K vol

70%41
Finances

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...? — Odds

September 30 at 10% · Polymarket · $329K vol

10%38
Finances

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...? — Odds

September 30 at 27% · Polymarket · $312.2K vol

27%36

Macro & Rates

Fed · CPI · jobs29
Economy

Fed Decision in September 2026? — Odds & Probability

25 bps increase at 54% · Polymarket · $110.2M vol

54%51
Economy

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December

Yes at 17% · Polymarket · $11M vol

17%54
Economy

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? — Odds & Probability

↑ 4.25% at 28% · Polymarket · $1.8M vol

28%67
Economy

How high will inflation get in 2026? — Odds

Above 4.5% at 11% · Polymarket · $1.4M vol

11%54
Economy

US recession by end of 2026? — Odds & Probability

US recession by end of 2026? at 8% · Polymarket · $1.7M vol

8%52
Economy

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? — Odds

4.0% at 43% · Polymarket · $6.8M vol

43%55
Economy

Fed rate hike in 2026? — Odds & Probability

Fed rate hike in 2026? at 71% · Polymarket · $8.8M vol

71%65
Economy

When will Oura officially announce an IPO? — Odds

Before Jan 1, 2027 at 96% · Kalshi · 49.4K contracts vol

96%30
Economy

Fed Decision in October 2026? — Odds & Probability

No change at 68% · Polymarket · $1.4M vol

68%58
Economy

August 2026 Inflation US - Annual — Odds & Probability

3.4% at 47% · Polymarket · $53.8K vol

47%42
Economy

Bank of Brazil decision in September 2026? — Odds

25 bps decrease at 95% · Polymarket · $131K vol

95%49
Economy

Bank of Canada Decision in October 2026? — Odds

No Change at 92% · Polymarket · $46.8K vol

92%55
Economy

Bank of Japan Decision in October 2026? — Odds

No change at 92% · Polymarket · $57.8K vol

92%56
Economy

Bank of Japan Decision in September 2026? — Odds

25 bps increase at 98% · Polymarket · $483.8K vol

98%56
Economy

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026 — Odds & Probability

No change at 88% · Polymarket · $51.3K vol

88%55
Economy

ECB Interest Rates: September 2026 — Odds & Probability

25 bps increase at 99% · Polymarket · $314.2K vol

99%63
Economy

Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 — Odds & Probability

0.8-1.1% at 67% · Polymarket · $52.6K vol

67%38
Economy

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) — Odds & Probability

Other at 67% · Polymarket · $733.7K vol

67%48
Economy

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) — Odds & Probability

Other at 60% · Polymarket · $823K vol

60%45
Economy

People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?

No Change at 94% · Polymarket · $49.8K vol

94%52
Economy

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September 2026

25 bps increase at 56% · Polymarket · $46.1K vol

56%45
Economy

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026? — Odds

3.0–3.4% at 34% · Polymarket · $43.6K vol

34%58
Economy

What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on

$335K - $340K at 34% · Polymarket · $84.8K vol

34%40
Economy

What will the median home value in Miami be on

$1.089M - $1.125M at 45% · Polymarket · $64.5K vol

45%39
Economy

When will Fannie Mae officially announce an IPO? — Odds

Before Jun 1, 2027 at 25% · Kalshi · 28.3K contracts vol

25%37
Economy

Which companies will the US take a stake in? — Odds

GlobalFoundries at 94% · Polymarket · $177.2K vol

94%47
Economy

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro

<$446K at 90% · Polymarket · $88.8K vol

90%38
Economy

What will the median home value in the US be on

<$419K at 57% · Polymarket · $61K vol

57%37
Economy

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026? — Odds & Probability

4.3-4.6% at 43% · Polymarket · $29.4K vol

43%37

Follow a market

Bitcoin 4IPOs 6Federal Reserve 10Ethereum 2Inflation & CPI 2GDP 3Oil (WTI) 2Solana 2Gold 1European Central Bank 2S&P 500 1Bank of England 1

W.E.T. is an information and data service, not a financial adviser or a gambling operator — these are market-implied odds, not investment advice. Prediction markets carry risk and may be restricted where you live. See our methodology.

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