The money side of the tape .

What price will Bitcoin hit in July 2026? — Odds

↓ 65,000 at 80% · Polymarket · $15.2M vol

80%64

What price will Ethereum hit in July 2026? — Odds

↓ 1,900 at 84% · Polymarket · $3.4M vol

84%64

Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO — Odds & Probabi

>30M at 98% · Polymarket · $1.5M vol

98%55

What price will Bitcoin hit July 13-19? — Odds & Probability

↑ 66,000 at 7% · Polymarket · $1.4M vol

7%59

What price will Solana hit in July 2026? — Odds

↑ 80 at 64% · Polymarket · $743.3K vol

64%63

What price will XRP hit in July 2026? — Odds

↑ 1.20 at 53% · Polymarket · $594.3K vol

53%62

What price will Ethereum hit July 13-19? — Odds & Probability

↑ 2,500 at 1% · Polymarket · $327.5K vol

1%51

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 16? — Odds & Probability

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 16? at 5% · Polymarket · $166.3K vol

5%34

Commodities & Indices

gold · oil · S&P21

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026? — Odds

↑ $90 at 73% · Polymarket · $9.5M vol

73%64

Largest Company end of July 2026? — Odds & Probability

NVIDIA at 74% · Polymarket · $3.3M vol

74%80

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Yes at 14% · Polymarket · $1.7M vol

14%65

Fed rate hike by...? — Odds & Probability

October Meeting at 56% · Polymarket · $1.4M vol

56%57

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day

30+ at 13% · Polymarket · $1.3M vol

13%77

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? — Odds & Probability

December 31 at 61% · Polymarket · $1.3M vol

61%78

What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in July 2026? — Odds

↑ $64 at 23% · Polymarket · $712.9K vol

23%61

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in July 2026? — Odds

↑ $4,300 at 15% · Polymarket · $711.1K vol

15%63

Which countries will send warships through the Strait

United States at 12% · Polymarket · $432.9K vol

12%76

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? — Odds

July 31 at 4% · Polymarket · $386.1K vol

4%60

Houthis successfully target shipping by...? — Odds

August 31 at 50% · Polymarket · $381.7K vol

50%61

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in July 2026? — Odds

↓ $730 at 39% · Polymarket · $373.4K vol

39%58

2nd Largest Company end of July 2026? — Odds

Apple at 76% · Polymarket · $372.8K vol

76%68

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6? — Odds & Proba

<150 at 87% · Polymarket · $260.5K vol

87%40

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July

0-20 at 87% · Polymarket · $218.8K vol

87%66

What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in July 2026? — Odds

↓ $2.80 at 68% · Polymarket · $188.2K vol

68%48

When will any company achieve AGI? — Odds & Probability

Before Jan 1, 2031 at 83% · Kalshi · $65.9K vol

83%52

When will Waymo officially announce an IPO? — Odds

Before Nov 1, 2027 at 27% · Kalshi · $28.6K vol

27%47

When will Skims officially announce an IPO? — Odds & Probability

Before Jan 1, 2028 at 44% · Kalshi · $19K vol

44%39

When will Canva officially announce an IPO? — Odds & Probability

Before Jan 1, 2028 at 60% · Kalshi · $11.4K vol

60%36

When will EA's take-private acquisition close? — Odds & Probability

Before Oct 1, 2026 at 98% · Kalshi · $11.3K vol

98%33

Macro & Rates

Fed · CPI · jobs12

Fed Decision in July 2026? — Odds & Probability

No change at 86% · Polymarket · $82M vol

86%80

Fed Decision in September 2026? — Odds & Probability

25 bps increase at 49% · Polymarket · $4M vol

49%60

June Inflation US - Annual — Odds & Probability

3.8% at 60% · Polymarket · $805.9K vol

60%49

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul) — Odds & Probability

Pause–Pause–Pause at 87% · Polymarket · $803.7K vol

87%56

ECB Interest Rates: July 2026 — Odds & Probability

No change at 99% · Polymarket · $474.3K vol

99%77

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) — Odds & Probability

Other at 59% · Polymarket · $454.2K vol

59%61

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) — Odds & Probability

Other at 51% · Polymarket · $355.7K vol

51%54

Bank of Russia decision in July 2026? — Odds

Decrease at 63% · Polymarket · $337.6K vol

63%49

Bank of Brazil decision in August 2026? — Odds & Probability

25 bps decrease at 78% · Polymarket · $155.2K vol

78%44

When will Fannie Mae officially announce an IPO? — Odds

Before Apr 1, 2027 at 22% · Kalshi · $28.4K vol

22%47

When will Oura officially announce an IPO? — Odds & Probability

Before Oct 1, 2027 at 91% · Kalshi · $23.1K vol

91%39