Readings may not describe today1 scheduled close did not landWhy →Hide
1 scheduled close did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-15 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-14. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
W.E.T. Flashpoint Watch Index
v1SlateWeeklyAs of Sep 14, 2026 · last moved Sep 14, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Contained → Escalating)
How much near-term escalation risk the live flashpoints are pricing.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 808.33
- Since inception
- −19.17%
- Cost to cross
- 0.67pts
- Holdings marked
- 81.8% of 11
- 1 day
- +0.17%
- 7 day
- +0.72%
- Markets held
- 11
- Settled
- 10
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- 50.0% (5 of 10)
- Cash
- 79.6%
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 41
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 11 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 26c1.0¢ spread · 548.7k/81.9k within 5¢polymarketYES26c11c−58.8%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?polymarket · NO · entry 91c37 sessions stalepolymarketNO91c97c+7.1%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 71c1.0¢ spread · 75.7k/3.8k within 5¢polymarketNO71c94c+31.7%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 3c14 sessions stalepolymarketYES3c1c−68.3%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?polymarket · NO · entry 97c0.8¢ spread · 312.9k/12.7k within 5¢polymarketNO97c98c+1.0%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 14c1.0¢ spread · 32.5k/9.9k within 5¢polymarketYES14c10c−34.5%5.7%Polymarket ↗
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 73c1.0¢ spread · 26.9k/13.6k within 5¢polymarketYES73c28c−61.0%3.8%Polymarket ↗
- IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?polymarket · YES · entry 18c2.2¢ spread · 30.2k/2.4k within 5¢polymarketYES18c5c−74.3%3.4%Polymarket ↗
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by August 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 21c3.0¢ spread · 446/96 within 5¢polymarketYES21c2c−88.8%2.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?polymarket · YES · entry 7cpolymarketYES7c3c−61.4%2.8%Polymarket ↗
- U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by September 30?polymarket · YES · entry 9c2.4¢ spread · 11.7k/310 within 5¢polymarketYES9c2c−76.8%2.8%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- —
- Band
- Low
- 34d Range
- 3059
- Percentile
- 32th
- 7d Change
- +1.8
- Volatility
- 1.8 pts/d
- Streak
- 2d down
- Markets
- 7
- Effective N
- 4.9
- Top Weight
- 25%
- Venues
- 7 P
- Method
- v1
- Basket
- 7/19
- Frozen
- 2026-08-04
- Chain
- ×0.8857
Daily close
34d published · interactive34 published close(s) — 0–100 (Contained → Escalating). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 11 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 34d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 34 readings, slope -0.49/day, projection σ 2.1 pts/d widened for a 34-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 7 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-14) · the basket below holds a different setWhere these markets are covered
5 of 7 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to these 2 questions in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
How does the world order hold?
Cooperation holdsThe world fragmentsDo the flashpoints stay contained?
Contained and coolingA new front opens
Where do you stand? The Worldview builder asks from this same set of questions and matches your answers to the W.E.T. indexes that measure them.
Turn your perspective into a portfolio →WFLA · at a glance
- What it is
- The near-term escalation gauge — what could break in the next two weeks.
- High vs low
- Higher = markets pricing escalation within days. Lower = the near term looks contained.
- Who cares
- Risk desks and foreign-affairs reporters watching the live flashpoints on a short clock.
Embed this score
always the latest published reading, dated · attribution built inPut the live WFLA reading on your own site, README, or newsletter.
Badge For articles, profiles & READMEs
The index. Ready to share. Actual embed
[](https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/flashpoint-watch)<a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/flashpoint-watch"><img src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/api/indices/flashpoint-watch/badge" alt="WFLA — WET Index Score" /></a><iframe src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/embed/indices/flashpoint-watch" width="340" height="170" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="WFLA — WET Index Score" loading="lazy"></iframe>Quote this index
free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 14, 2026, the W.E.T. Flashpoint Watch Index (WFLA) prints a WET Index Score of 31.7/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.