Readings may not describe today48 scheduled closes did not landWhy →Hide
48 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
W.E.T. Flashpoint Watch Index
v1SlateWeeklyAs of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 21, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Contained → Escalating)
How much near-term escalation risk the live flashpoints are pricing.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 776.12
- Since inception
- −22.39%
- Cost to cross
- 0.50pts
- Holdings marked
- 14.3% of 7
- 1 day
- −0.75%
- 7 day
- −0.79%
- Markets held
- 7
- Settled
- 14
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- 50.0% (7 of 14)
- Cash
- 92.4%
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 70
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 7 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 26c1.0¢ spread · 176.5k/6.9k within 5¢polymarketYES26c7c−74.5%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?polymarket · NO · entry 91c66 sessions stalepolymarketNO91c97c+7.1%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 3c43 sessions stalepolymarketYES3c1c−68.3%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 14c6 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 283.9k/24.7k within 5¢polymarketYES14c1c−93.1%5.7%Polymarket ↗
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 73c6 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 21.6k/12.0k within 5¢polymarketYES73c3c−96.3%3.8%Polymarket ↗
- IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?polymarket · YES · entry 18c6 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 9.1k/3.8k within 5¢polymarketYES18c3c−83.4%3.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?polymarket · YES · entry 7c18 sessions stalepolymarketYES7c2c−69.3%2.8%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- —
- Band
- Low
- 40d Range
- 3059
- Percentile
- 53th
- 8d Change
- +1.6
- Volatility
- 1.7 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 6
- Effective N
- 4.4
- Top Weight
- 25%
- Venues
- 6 P
- Method
- v1
- Basket
- 6/19
- Frozen
- 2026-08-04
- Chain
- ×0.8409
Daily close
40d published · interactive40 published close(s) — 0–100 (Contained → Escalating). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 13 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 40d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 40 readings, slope -0.38/day, projection σ 2.0 pts/d widened for a 40-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 6 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different setWhere these markets are covered
3 of 6 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to these 2 questions in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
Over the next year, will the major powers pull together or drift apart?
Pull together — more deals and cooperationDrift apart — more rivalry and blocsWill a new major war break out in the next 12 months?
No — today's conflicts stay containedYes — a new major conflict starts
Where do you stand? The Worldview builder asks from this same set of questions and matches your answers to the W.E.T. indexes that measure them.
Turn your perspective into a portfolio →WFLA · at a glance
- What it is
- The near-term escalation gauge — what could break in the next two weeks.
- High vs low
- Higher = markets pricing escalation within days. Lower = the near term looks contained.
- Who cares
- Risk desks and foreign-affairs reporters watching the live flashpoints on a short clock.
Embed this score
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Flashpoint Watch Index (WFLA) prints a WET Index Score of 33.3/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.