WFLA
W.E.T. Flashpoint Watch Index
v160.80— Elevated
As of Aug 1, 2026 · last moved Aug 1, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Contained → Escalating)
How much near-term escalation risk the live flashpoints are pricing.
View the basket — the real markets + combined performance →Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- —
- Band
- Elevated
- 1d Range
- building
- Percentile
- —
- 7d Change
- —
- Volatility
- —
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 21
- Effective N
- 6.6
- Top Weight
- 25%
- Volume
- $3.8M
- Venues
- 21 P
- Method
- v1
- Basket
- 21/21
- Frozen
- 2026-08-01
History & 14-day projection
projection builds with historyProjection begins once 7 daily readings are in (1/7 so far).
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — Premium🔒
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The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
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What moved today
attribution — Premium🔒
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Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
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Contribution by category
weight share of today's valuepolitics100% · 21
Constituents by weight
colored by category · every input auditable on its venueUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?26% · 24.5%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?(inv)65% · 19.9%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?(inv)66% · 14.3%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?(inv)91% · 13.5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?(inv)94% · 8.7%
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?(inv)85% · 3.6%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?(inv)71% · 3.6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?(inv)97% · 2.7%
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?3% · 2.6%
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?(inv)97% · 2.1%
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?34% · 1.7%
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?15% · 1.0%
WFLA · at a glance
- What it is
- The near-term escalation gauge — what could break in the next two weeks.
- High vs low
- Higher = markets pricing escalation within days. Lower = the near term looks contained.
- Who cares
- Risk desks and foreign-affairs reporters watching the live flashpoints on a short clock.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Aug 1, 2026, the W.E.T. Flashpoint Watch Index (WFLA) prints a WET Index Score of 60.8/100 (Elevated), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.