W.E.T. Flashpoint Watch Index
v1SlateWeeklyAs of Sep 10, 2026 · last moved Sep 10, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Contained → Escalating)
How much near-term escalation risk the live flashpoints are pricing.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 798.47
- Since inception
- −20.15%
- Cost to cross
- 0.61pts
- Holdings marked
- 81.8% of 11
- 1 day
- −0.55%
- 7 day
- −2.17%
- Markets held
- 11
- Settled
- 10
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- 50.0% (5 of 10)
- Cash
- 80.6%
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 37
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 11 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 26c1.0¢ spread · 269.0k/109.7k within 5¢polymarketYES26c10c−62.7%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?polymarket · NO · entry 91c33 sessions stalepolymarketNO91c97c+7.1%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 71c1.0¢ spread · 1.8k/2.2k within 5¢polymarketNO71c80c+12.0%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 3c10 sessions stalepolymarketYES3c1c−68.3%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?polymarket · NO · entry 97c0.6¢ spread · 91.5k/17.0k within 5¢polymarketNO97c98c+0.9%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 14c2.0¢ spread · 38.1k/10.2k within 5¢polymarketYES14c8c−44.8%5.7%Polymarket ↗
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 73c1.0¢ spread · 38.2k/16.3k within 5¢polymarketYES73c33c−55.5%3.8%Polymarket ↗
- IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?polymarket · YES · entry 18c2.2¢ spread · 19.8k/1.8k within 5¢polymarketYES18c4c−74.9%3.4%Polymarket ↗
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by August 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 21c0.5¢ spread · 467/422 within 5¢polymarketYES21c1c−94.4%2.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?polymarket · YES · entry 7cpolymarketYES7c3c−55.0%2.8%Polymarket ↗
- U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by September 30?polymarket · YES · entry 9c1.7¢ spread · 12.1k/312 within 5¢polymarketYES9c2c−82.9%2.8%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- 30.40
- Band
- Low
- 30d Range
- 3059
- Percentile
- 10th
- 7d Change
- −1.1
- Volatility
- 1.8 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 7
- Effective N
- 4.9
- Top Weight
- 25%
- Venues
- 7 P
- Method
- v1
- Basket
- 7/19
- Frozen
- 2026-08-04
- Chain
- ×0.8857
Daily close
30d published · interactive30 published close(s) — 0–100 (Contained → Escalating). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 11 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 30d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 30 readings, slope -0.61/day, projection σ 2.1 pts/d widened for a 30-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 7 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-10) · the basket below holds a different setWhere these markets are covered
5 of 7 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to these 2 questions in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
How does the world order hold?
Cooperation holdsThe world fragmentsDo the flashpoints stay contained?
Contained and coolingA new front opens
WFLA · at a glance
- What it is
- The near-term escalation gauge — what could break in the next two weeks.
- High vs low
- Higher = markets pricing escalation within days. Lower = the near term looks contained.
- Who cares
- Risk desks and foreign-affairs reporters watching the live flashpoints on a short clock.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 10, 2026, the W.E.T. Flashpoint Watch Index (WFLA) prints a WET Index Score of 29.9/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.