The Index Desk
Prediction Market Indexes
An index turns dozens of separate event contracts into one number you can follow over time. W.E.T. publishes indexes, recomputed daily from live prices at venues like Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini.
The Board
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Showing 91 of 91 indexes
Score and change % are the daily print (newest print 2026-09-08 · 1 stale). Live basket is hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage — equal-notional and size-blind, not investable and not a performance claim.
Benchmark governed benchmarks — versioned methodology, index committee, published track record. Slate slates — curated combinations of real markets treated as one view, horizon-tagged and finite-lived, under lighter governance. Both are computed from live venue prices; only the governance differs, and the class is always shown.
Successor constructions · EXPERIMENTAL
15 worldviews · 11 printingshow →
Successor constructions · EXPERIMENTAL
Experimental and ungoverned. This is the number the published methodology beside it computes, on the committed close tape — it is not the desk’s published level, it enters no ledger, it strikes no divisor, and it is not continuous with the series it sits beside. Research-labeled, not portfolio-eligible (Designer §5.3).
Succeeds AI Race, which prints 51.1 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.
weight coverage κ = 92.2% is below this index's floor κ_min = 95.0%
Succeeds Crypto Greed, which prints 41.0 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.
Succeeds Climate Risk, which prints 27.6 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.
Succeeds Political Turmoil, which prints 27.0 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.
Succeeds Commodity Stress, which prints 22.2 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.
Succeeds Flashpoint Watch, which prints 29.9 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.
Succeeds Global Easing, which prints 26.9 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.
Succeeds Awards Race, which prints 42.2 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.
Succeeds Soccer Heat, which prints 97.0 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.
weight coverage κ = 93.0% is below this index's floor κ_min = 95.0%
Succeeds Gridiron Futures, which prints 61.9 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.
the missing-price count share π = 32.9% is above the 25.0% hard floor
Shares a thesis family with AI Race, which prints 51.1 and carries Open-Weight AI Lead as the construction printed beneath it. This reading is published on its own card rather than a second time under that row; the series are not continuous, and neither figure here is a restatement of the other.
weight coverage κ = 92.2% is below this index's floor κ_min = 95.0%
No row — the desk lists this worldview’s thesis family (conflict-escalation) but publishes no index under that name, so this reading is published as a construction rather than beneath a row.
No row — the desk lists this worldview’s thesis family (conflict-escalation) but publishes no index under that name, so this reading is published as a construction rather than beneath a row.
No row — the desk lists this worldview’s thesis family (midterm-map) but publishes no index under that name, so this reading is published as a construction rather than beneath a row.
The legacy Fed Path WFPI slate it was minted from is delisted, so it holds no row. The desk’s governed row for this subject is Fed Path WETFED, which prints 33.9. Three constructions of one subject; neither figure here is a restatement of the other.
What is a prediction market index?
A prediction market index turns many event contracts into one number. Instead of reading one market’s odds on one question, you read what a whole class of markets is pricing at once — conflict escalation, the path of Fed policy, control of Congress. W.E.T. publishes 91 named indexes on the board below, each computed daily from live prices across CFTC-regulated venues.
Every index carries a published methodology, a dated history and a construction log naming the markets it admitted and the ones it rejected. The composition is public, so any exposure to the view an index tracks is one you construct yourself, at whichever venue you already use. W.E.T. is not an exchange, broker or fund: it holds no contract, routes no order and settles nothing. These are readings of venue prices, free to quote with attribution.
A prediction market index vs. a single market
One contract answers one question and resolves on one date. That makes it precise and fragile: a single headline, a single wording dispute, a single thin book can move it for reasons that have nothing to do with the thing you actually wanted to track. An index spreads the same question across every market that prices some part of it, weights them, and publishes what the group says. It will not tell you whether one contract is mispriced — it tells you whether a whole view of the world is getting more or less likely.
How W.E.T. builds one
Each index starts from a falsifiable thesis and a published rule for which contracts belong to it: a category, keywords, a resolution window, a minimum number of constituents, a weighting scheme and a coverage floor. Contracts from different venues that price the same real-world event are mapped to one canonical event first, so the same question is never double-counted. When a day’s basket falls below its own coverage floor the index publishes a refusal rather than a number — a gap you can see is worth more than a figure you cannot check. The methodology for every index is published in full, and governance covers how a method may change.