Readings may not describe today5 scheduled closes did not landWhy →
5 behind

5 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.

Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes

WPARL

W.E.T. Parliamentary Elections Index 2mo

v1StandingExperimentalMonthly
No reading published for 2026-09-22

The §2.6 ladder refused this print at rung 2. A refusal is publishable; a carried-forward level is not — so this index shows nothing today rather than yesterday’s number wearing today’s date.

Governed close level
—
no level published
Gauge
—
Divisor
—
what chains this level to the last
Closes
28
latest 2026-09-22
Coverage
0 of 0 admitted markets pricedκ 0.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel

32 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.

What would make this reading wrong
  • The "parliamentary" axis stops appearing in elections titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
  • Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
  • A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 6, severity frames 0 of 6, threshold frames 0 of 6), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (7)
  • no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding
  • roster refused [empty-roster]: the universe admitted 23 canonical event(s) on this tape and this index's own declared eligibility ejected every one of them (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 23. That is a statement about LIQUIDITY rather than about coverage: the board does carry this subject inside this window, and no market it carries is tradeable at the thresholds this index published. The close writes insufficient_data and no value rather than admitting a member it declared ineligible.
  • universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 9403 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 23. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 9376, horizon-outside-window 4.
  • universe: the declared 17–60d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 4 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
  • universe: 9376 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
  • eligibility: 23 of 23 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 23. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
  • no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
Why there are two levels on this page

The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.

The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.

They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.

spec af8494fd79cf3c11 · methodology a30483e05eefce92 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing · no directional statement permitted from this print

No value publishedfor 2026-09-22§2.6 rung 2

no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding

Last published reading: 40.17 on 2026-09-12. It is not carried forward.

7 elections markets carrying the "parliamentary" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.

Basket level · official print16 held · close 2026-09-25
955.79−4.42%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
955.79
Since inception
−4.42%
Cost to cross
—
Holdings marked
18.8% of 16
1 day
−0.01%
7 day
−0.22%
Markets held
16
Settled
1
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
63.4%
Inception
2026-08-18
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
33

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 16 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 6c6 sessions stale1c−77.1%↗
  • Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 20c6 sessions stale18c−12.7%↗
  • Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 97c14 sessions stale99c+2.4%↗
  • Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?polymarket · YES · entry 85c8 sessions stale79c−6.5%↗
  • Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 82c7 sessions stale93c+12.8%↗
  • Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?polymarket · YES · entry 16c8 sessions stale22c+38.7%↗
  • Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 10c7 sessions stale4c−58.3%↗
  • Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?polymarket · YES · entry 41c12 sessions stale33c−19.8%↗
  • Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 20c2c−89.0%↗
  • Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 7c7 sessions stale4c−41.1%↗
  • Will Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?polymarket · YES · entry 59c12 sessions stale60c+1.7%↗
  • Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 42c7 sessions stale35c−16.9%↗
  • Will Suverēnā Vara (SV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 19c3c−85.2%↗
  • Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 33c7 sessions stale58c+78.5%↗
  • Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 6c1c−80.3%↗
  • Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 14c7 sessions stale7c−50.0%↗

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

WPARL · at a glance

What it is
7 elections markets carrying the "parliamentary" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.
High vs low
Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Who cares
Anyone tracking how parliamentary is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 60 days.

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