W.E.T. Flashpoint Watch Index: methodology

The W.E.T. Flashpoint Watch Index is a daily 0–100 reading of near-term escalation risk at the live geopolitical flashpoints.

Components

Active conflict-risk markets resolving inside roughly two weeks, drawn from the Iran, Israel, Ukraine, Russia, China and general geopolitics boards. De-escalation questions (ceasefires, withdrawals) are included oriented 1−p, so the index reads the whole board.

Value

The volume-weighted mean escalation-side probability, 0–100. Its long-dated sibling is the Geopolitical Risk Index. No single market may exceed its weight cap (excess redistributed), so one whale contract can't be the index. Each real-world event contributes once, through its leading qualifying market. When too few qualifying markets are live, the index reports insufficient data rather than a number.

Publication & freshness

Computed and published daily to a durable, dated snapshot; the "last moved" date advances only on a real move, drivers attribute each daily change to the markets that caused it, and every point is appended to a permanent, citable history.

What this index is not

This is a benchmark reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast and not advice. A high value does not predict that the event happens — it reports what prediction-market traders are collectively pricing right now. Prices move continuously and can be wrong.

An accuracy record for a benchmark requires resolved outcomes accumulated over time. W.E.T. publishes this index daily with a dated, immutable history from first publication — that published series is the audit trail. Calibration analysis will ship strictly when the resolved-outcome corpus supports it, never before. See the site methodology for the same discipline applied to the W.E.T. Score.