W.E.T. Seats Elections Index 2mo
v1StandingExperimentalMonthlyThe §2.6 ladder refused this print at rung 2. A refusal is publishable; a carried-forward level is not — so this index shows nothing today rather than yesterday’s number wearing today’s date.
7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "seats" axis stops appearing in elections titles: the selector then admits fewer than 8 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 12, severity frames 0 of 12, threshold frames 0 of 12), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (6)
- no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding
- roster refused [empty-roster]: no canonical event on this tape satisfied the universe: 16530 considered, 0 admitted, rejected as keyword-miss 16516, horizon-outside-window 14. That is a statement about the BOARD on this date, not about the worldview: the close writes insufficient_data and no value rather than reaching for yesterday's number. Note that 14 event(s) passed every other selector and were removed by this index's own declared 17–60d window — an empty roster for a window nothing on the board resolves inside is the window working, not the close failing.
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 0. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 16516, horizon-outside-window 14. - universe: the declared 17–60d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 14 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 16516 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec f70f749256fd49b8 · methodology c844ccb74d3cd081 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing · no directional statement permitted from this print
no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding
Last published reading: 75.39 on 2026-09-24. It is not carried forward.
15 elections markets carrying the "seats" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.
No return published — not one of this basket's 32 open holdings carried a mark on 2026-11-14. The level would read exactly 1000 and the return exactly 0.00%, which is what an unmoved basket and an unobserved one look like from outside. They are not the same thing, so this one says which it is.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- —
- Since inception
- —
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 0.0% of 32
- 1 day
- —
- 7 day
- —
- Markets held
- 32
- Settled
- 5
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- 80.0% (4 of 5)
- Cash
- 72.4%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 55
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 32 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 6c28 sessions stalepolymarketYES6c1c−77.1%12.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 97c36 sessions stalepolymarketYES97c99c+2.4%11.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 20c28 sessions stalepolymarketYES20c18c−12.7%9.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?polymarket · YES · entry 85c30 sessions stalepolymarketYES85c79c−6.5%5.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?polymarket · YES · entry 4c30 sessions stalepolymarketYES4c1c−73.0%5.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 82c29 sessions stalepolymarketYES82c93c+12.8%4.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?polymarket · YES · entry 15c30 sessions stalepolymarketYES15c5c−64.1%3.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?polymarket · YES · entry 34c30 sessions stalepolymarketYES34c27c−20.9%3.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?polymarket · YES · entry 16c30 sessions stalepolymarketYES16c22c+38.7%2.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?polymarket · YES · entry 8c30 sessions stalepolymarketYES8c1c−86.9%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 10c29 sessions stalepolymarketYES10c4c−58.3%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?polymarket · YES · entry 13c29 sessions stalepolymarketYES13c6c−55.6%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?polymarket · YES · entry 75c18 sessions stalepolymarketYES75c96c+29.3%1.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?polymarket · YES · entry 14c18 sessions stalepolymarketYES14c2c−84.8%1.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?polymarket · YES · entry 41c34 sessions stalepolymarketYES41c33c−19.8%1.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?polymarket · YES · entry 13c17 sessions stalepolymarketYES13c1c−92.3%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 20c19 sessions stalepolymarketYES20c1c−95.0%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?polymarket · YES · entry 3c29 sessions stalepolymarketYES3c2c−19.0%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?polymarket · YES · entry 19c29 sessions stalepolymarketYES19c18c−3.2%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?polymarket · YES · entry 4c29 sessions stalepolymarketYES4c3c−37.5%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?polymarket · YES · entry 35c29 sessions stalepolymarketYES35c44c+26.1%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?polymarket · YES · entry 7c29 sessions stalepolymarketYES7c6c−11.4%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 7c29 sessions stalepolymarketYES7c4c−41.1%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?polymarket · YES · entry 23c29 sessions stalepolymarketYES23c24c+4.4%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?polymarket · YES · entry 59c34 sessions stalepolymarketYES59c60c+1.7%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 42c29 sessions stalepolymarketYES42c35c−16.9%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?polymarket · YES · entry 16c19 sessions stalepolymarketYES16c5c−69.5%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Suverēnā Vara (SV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 19c19 sessions stalepolymarketYES19c1c−94.8%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 33c29 sessions stalepolymarketYES33c58c+78.5%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 6c19 sessions stalepolymarketYES6c1c−83.6%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Federação União Progressista (UPB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?polymarket · YES · entry 34c19 sessions stalepolymarketYES34c34c−1.2%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 14c29 sessions stalepolymarketYES14c7c−50.0%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
WSEAT · at a glance
- What it is
- 15 elections markets carrying the "seats" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how seats is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 8 markets resolving inside 60 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“The W.E.T. Seats Elections Index 2mo (WSEAT) publishes a daily WET Index Score on a 0–100 scale, per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.