WELE2
W.E.T. Election Politics Index 2mo
v1StandingExperimentalMonthlyNo reading published for 2026-11-14
The §2.6 ladder refused this print at rung 2. A refusal is publishable; a carried-forward level is not — so this index shows nothing today rather than yesterday’s number wearing today’s date.
Governed close level
—
no level published
Gauge
—
Divisor
—
what chains this level to the last
Closes
53
latest 2026-11-14
Coverage
7 of 11 admitted markets priced4 unpricedκ 0.4934 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel
7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
What would make this reading wrong
- The "election" axis stops appearing in politics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 16, severity frames 0 of 16, threshold frames 1 of 16), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (8)
- weight coverage κ = 49.3% is below this index's floor κ_min = 95.0%
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 28. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 14982, category-not-admitted 1515, horizon-outside-window 5. - universe: the declared 17–60d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 5 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 14982 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - eligibility: 17 of 28 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 17. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:coverage], framing 0 of 11 members and holding 0 of them NO. The declared threshold axis frames 0 of 11 members (0%), under the published 50% bar, so it takes no force today and no member is flipped by it. An axis that frames a corner of the board would state a direction for members it never read. This is the spec's own invalidation condition, measured rather than assumed. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- orientation: because the declared `threshold` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
Why there are two levels on this page
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 75139e3d9c45d455 · methodology 023b81a02c736a2e · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing · no directional statement permitted from this print
No value publishedfor 2026-11-14§2.6 rung 2
weight coverage κ = 49.3% is below this index's floor κ_min = 95.0%
Last published reading: 45.18 on 2026-11-05. It is not carried forward.
22 politics markets carrying the "election" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.
No level published for this basket
No return published — not one of this basket's 60 open holdings carried a mark on 2026-11-14. The level would read exactly 1000 and the return exactly 0.00%, which is what an unmoved basket and an unobserved one look like from outside. They are not the same thing, so this one says which it is.
Basket level · official print60 held · close 2026-11-14
No level publishedbase 1000
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- —
- Since inception
- —
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 0.0% of 60
- 1 day
- —
- 7 day
- —
- Markets held
- 60
- Settled
- 1
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 53.0%
- Inception
- 2026-08-27
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 48
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 60 markets
held since 2026-08-27 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differsMarketVenueEntryNowReturnWt
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 62c30 sessions stalepolymarketYES62c45c−27.6%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 2c30 sessions stalepolymarketYES2c1c−43.8%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 35c30 sessions stalepolymarketYES35c54c+53.1%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?polymarket · YES · entry 5c19 sessions stalepolymarketYES5c1c−77.8%4.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Kirov Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 93c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES93c96c+3.3%4.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?polymarket · YES · entry 9c30 sessions stalepolymarketYES9c7c−26.1%3.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Kamchatka Krai Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97c29 sessions stalepolymarketYES97c97c−0.2%2.6%Polymarket ↗
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%?polymarket · YES · entry 34c26 sessions stalepolymarketYES34c1c−97.0%2.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Krasnoyarsk Krai Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES97c97c+0.3%2.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Ramzan Kadyrov win the 2026 Chechnya gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 98c26 sessions stalepolymarketYES98c99c+1.2%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Moscow Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES97c97c+0.8%1.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will Vladislav Khovalyg win the 2026 Tuva gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES97c99c+2.5%1.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Murmansk Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES97c99c+2.5%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Mordovia Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c24 sessions stalepolymarketYES96c99c+3.1%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Pskov Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES96c97c+1.0%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Yegor Kovalchuk win the 2026 Bryansk Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES96c99c+3.2%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?polymarket · YES · entry 89c30 sessions stalepolymarketYES89c76c−14.1%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Tomsk Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 98c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES98c98c+0.6%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES97c99c+2.2%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Altai Krai Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97c29 sessions stalepolymarketYES97c96c−0.7%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to CDU or Linke?polymarket · YES · entry 28c26 sessions stalepolymarketYES28c5c−82.9%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Leningrad Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c24 sessions stalepolymarketYES96c98c+1.4%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Kursk Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 95c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES95c97c+2.1%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Jewish Autonomous Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 95c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES95c99c+3.8%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Karelia Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c29 sessions stalepolymarketYES96c97c+0.6%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Chuvashia Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES96c99c+3.3%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Tyumen Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 98c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES98c99c+1.4%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 38c30 sessions stalepolymarketYES38c15c−60.5%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Vologda Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 98c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES98c96c−1.4%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will Oleg Melnichenko win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES96c99c+2.9%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Chukotka Autonomous Okrug Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 98c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES98c98c+0.2%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?polymarket · YES · entry 64c30 sessions stalepolymarketYES64c85c+33.9%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Lipetsk Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97c23 sessions stalepolymarketYES97c99c+2.1%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will Alexander Shuvaev win the 2026 Belgorod Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 95c24 sessions stalepolymarketYES95c99c+4.3%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Tver Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 95c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES95c94c−1.1%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 17c30 sessions stalepolymarketYES17c45c+167.2%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Vitaly Korolev win the next Tver Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES96c99c+3.2%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?polymarket · YES · entry 11c30 sessions stalepolymarketYES11c22c+102.8%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Berlin State Election: AfD Over/Under 17%?polymarket · YES · entry 56c47 sessions stalepolymarketYES56c56c0.0%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES97c97c−0.1%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Sverdlovsk Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES96c99c+3.6%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 42c30 sessions stalepolymarketYES42c39c−6.0%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Alexey Russkikh win the next Ulyanovsk Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES96c99c+2.9%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Stavropol Krai Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c24 sessions stalepolymarketYES96c99c+2.9%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?polymarket · YES · entry 7c20 sessions stalepolymarketYES7c4c−42.8%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Oryol Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c23 sessions stalepolymarketYES96c99c+2.7%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will LDPR win the next Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 2c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES2c3c+23.8%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Pavel Kulikov win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 2c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES2c1c−56.5%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will A Just Russia win the next Jewish Autonomous Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 3c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES3c1c−61.5%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Progressistas (PP) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?polymarket · YES · entry 3c20 sessions stalepolymarketYES3c1c−66.7%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Showing the 50 heaviest of 60 constituents by weight. See the full book →
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Contribution by category
weight share of the roster the last close weighedpolitics100% · 11
Constituents by weight
all 11 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-11-14) · the basket below holds a different setWhere these markets are covered
1 of 11 constituents has a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
WELE2 · at a glance
- What it is
- 22 politics markets carrying the "election" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how election is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 60 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“The W.E.T. Election Politics Index 2mo (WELE2) publishes a daily WET Index Score on a 0–100 scale, per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.