Readings may not describe today1 scheduled close did not landWhy →Hide
1 scheduled close did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-10 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-09. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
W.E.T. Election Politics Index 2mo
v1StandingExperimentalMonthly45 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "election" axis stops appearing in politics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 16, severity frames 0 of 16, threshold frames 1 of 16), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (7)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 11653 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 110. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 10637, category-not-admitted 450, horizon-outside-window 456. - universe: the declared 17–60d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 456 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 10637 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - eligibility: 62 of 110 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 58, below-min-volume 4. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:coverage], framing 7 of 48 members and holding 0 of them NO. The declared threshold axis frames 7 of 48 members (15%), under the published 50% bar, so it takes no force today and no member is flipped by it. An axis that frames a corner of the board would state a direction for members it never read. This is the spec's own invalidation condition, measured rather than assumed. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- orientation: because the declared `threshold` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 75139e3d9c45d455 · methodology 023b81a02c736a2e · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Sep 9, 2026 · last moved Sep 9, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
48 politics markets carrying the "election" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 986.32
- Since inception
- −1.37%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 93.4% of 61
- 1 day
- +1.78%
- 7 day
- +1.26%
- Markets held
- 61
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 50.8%
- Inception
- 2026-08-27
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 13
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 61 markets
held since 2026-08-27 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 62cpolymarketYES62c52c−16.3%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 2cpolymarketYES2c2c−27.1%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 35cpolymarketYES35c46c+32.1%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c3c−44.4%4.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Kirov Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 93cpolymarketYES93c97c+3.9%4.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c8c−11.1%3.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Kamchatka Krai Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97cpolymarketYES97c97c−0.1%2.6%Polymarket ↗
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%?polymarket · YES · entry 34c7 sessions stalepolymarketYES34c37c+9.0%2.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Krasnoyarsk Krai Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97cpolymarketYES97c97c−0.4%2.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Ramzan Kadyrov win the 2026 Chechnya gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 98cpolymarketYES98c98c+0.3%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Moscow Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97cpolymarketYES97c96c−0.3%1.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will Vladislav Khovalyg win the 2026 Tuva gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97cpolymarketYES97c96c−0.6%1.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Murmansk Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97cpolymarketYES97c97c+0.2%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Mordovia Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c98c+2.3%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Pskov Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c95c−0.4%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Yegor Kovalchuk win the 2026 Bryansk Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c96c+0.3%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?polymarket · YES · entry 89cpolymarketYES89c76c−14.7%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Tomsk Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 98cpolymarketYES98c98c−0.4%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97cpolymarketYES97c99c+1.9%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?polymarket · YES · entry 84cpolymarketYES84c90c+6.5%1.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Altai Krai Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97cpolymarketYES97c96c−0.6%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to CDU or Linke?polymarket · YES · entry 28c7 sessions stalepolymarketYES28c30c+7.1%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Leningrad Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c96c−0.1%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Kursk Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 95cpolymarketYES95c98c+2.6%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Jewish Autonomous Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 95cpolymarketYES95c96c+0.9%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Karelia Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c96c+0.2%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Chuvashia Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c99c+3.5%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Tyumen Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 98cpolymarketYES98c95c−3.2%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 38cpolymarketYES38c7c−81.6%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Vologda Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 98cpolymarketYES98c95c−2.4%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will Oleg Melnichenko win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c96c−0.3%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Chukotka Autonomous Okrug Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 98cpolymarketYES98c98c−0.2%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?polymarket · YES · entry 64cpolymarketYES64c79c+24.4%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Lipetsk Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97cpolymarketYES97c98c+0.9%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will Alexander Shuvaev win the 2026 Belgorod Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 95cpolymarketYES95c98c+3.2%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Tver Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 95cpolymarketYES95c95c−0.1%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 17cpolymarketYES17c45c+168.3%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Vitaly Korolev win the next Tver Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c97c+1.2%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?polymarket · YES · entry 11cpolymarketYES11c24c+128.3%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Berlin State Election: AfD Over/Under 17%?polymarket · YES · entry 56c12 sessions stalepolymarketYES56c56c0.0%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97cpolymarketYES97c98c+1.2%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Sverdlovsk Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c96c+0.2%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 42cpolymarketYES42c45c+8.4%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Alexey Russkikh win the next Ulyanovsk Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c97c+0.4%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Stavropol Krai Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c95c−0.9%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?polymarket · YES · entry 7cpolymarketYES7c3c−63.8%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Oryol Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c96c−0.3%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will LDPR win the next Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 2cpolymarketYES2c1c−50.0%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Pavel Kulikov win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 2cpolymarketYES2c2c−2.2%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will A Just Russia win the next Jewish Autonomous Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 3cpolymarketYES3c3c+1.9%0.2%Polymarket ↗
Showing the 50 heaviest of 61 constituents by weight. See the full book →
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
- Previous
- —
- Band
- Elevated
- 12d Range
- 5068
- Percentile
- 100th
- 10d Change
- +16.2
- Volatility
- 5.7 pts/d
- Streak
- 4d up
- Markets
- 48
- Effective N
- 10.9
- Top Weight
- 15%
- Venues
- 48 P
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 7 sessions
149 hourly readings since 2026-09-04 · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
12d published · interactive12 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 15 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 12d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 12 readings, slope +0.75/day, projection σ 8.3 pts/d widened for a 12-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 48 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-09) · the basket below holds a different setWhere these markets are covered
4 of 48 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
WELE2 · at a glance
- What it is
- 48 politics markets carrying the "election" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how election is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 60 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 9, 2026, the W.E.T. Election Politics Index 2mo (WELE2) prints a WET Index Score of 67.8/100 (Elevated), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.