The Index Desk Report
Saturday, October 31, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
21.4Low
93 / 148 live22 elevated32 calm
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 21.4 (Low), up 0.1.
Rose 0.7 to 21.4 (Low), led by climate-risk (15% leg) (28→30%) +0.3 repricing; geopolitical-risk (40% leg) −0.1 repricing; commodity-stress (20% leg) (14→13%) −0.1 repricing.
The board: 93 of 148 benchmarks live — 22 elevated (≥60), 32 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Dec 2026) prices +17.8bps expected change (29% hold); cumulative +42.8bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Nov 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.92% (80% band 3.56–4.32%, n=21 strikes).
Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WINT2 72.4 (▲21.3) — Interest — Economics, inside two months, up 21.3 on the day.
- WRAT4 69.6 (▲18.5) — Rates — Economics, inside two months, up 18.5 on the day.
- WINTE 83.7 (▲17.5) — Interest — Economics, inside six months, up 17.5 on the day.
- WMEET 67.1 (▲16.0) — Meeting — Economics, inside six months, up 16.0 on the day.
- WINC3 40.0 (▲15.5) — Increase — Economics, inside two months, up 15.5 on the day.
Projection watch
- WPITT projected 49.8 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending up.
- WPIT2 projected 50.2 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
- WSANF projected 54.1 in 14d (80% band 15–94), trending up.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | As of | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 26.5 | -0.2 | 2026-10-31 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 2.4 | -0.1 | 2026-10-31 | Very low & steady |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 35.7 | -0.9 | 2026-10-31 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 51.6 | -0.2 | 2026-10-31 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 14.7 | 0.0 | 2026-10-31 | Very low & steady, volatile |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 34.3 | 0.0 | 2026-10-31 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 29.5 | +1.9 | 2026-10-31 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 52.1 | +0.5 | 2026-10-31 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 53.1 | -0.6 | 2026-10-31 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 13.3 | -0.7 | 2026-10-31 | Very low & steady, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 82.8 | — | 2026-10-05 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 54.5 | -1.6 | 2026-10-31 | Moderate & climbing |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 43.8 | -2.0 | 2026-10-31 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WELW | Election Week | 7.0 | — | 2026-10-05 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 30.3 | +0.2 | 2026-10-31 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 29.9 | +2.1 | 2026-10-31 | Low & climbing |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 37.8 | -0.9 | 2026-10-31 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 77.3 | -1.6 | 2026-10-31 | Elevated & steady |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 67.3 | — | 2026-10-05 | Elevated & cooling |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 23.8 | 0.0 | 2026-10-31 | Low & climbing |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 24.7 | 0.0 | 2026-10-31 | Low & steady |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 39.1 | +0.9 | 2026-10-31 | Low & cooling |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 78.1 | — | 2026-10-05 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 51.8 | — | 2026-10-05 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 97.0 | — | 2026-10-05 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 74.9 | -0.7 | 2026-10-31 | Elevated & cooling |
| WWRI | World Risk | 21.4 | +0.1 | 2026-10-31 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 11.1 | -0.3 | 2026-10-31 | Very low & steady |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 41.2 | -0.6 | 2026-10-31 | Moderate & cooling |
| WACHI | Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 16.2 | +2.6 | 2026-10-30 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WACH2 | Inverse Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 83.8 | -2.6 | 2026-10-30 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WALBU | Album — Culture, inside six months | 45.6 | -8.3 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WANTH | Anthropic — Financials, inside six months | 42.2 | +2.9 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WARTI | Artist — Culture, inside six months | 31.8 | +0.7 | 2026-10-30 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WBANK | Bank — Economics, inside six months | 55.1 | — | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WCAPT | Capture — Politics, inside six months | 35.5 | +4.4 | 2026-10-30 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WCODE | Code Arena — Tech Science, inside two months | 61.8 | +11.3 | 2026-10-30 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WCOUN | Country — Politics, inside six months | 37.5 | +3.3 | 2026-10-30 | Low & climbing |
| WDEMO | Democratic — Elections, inside two years | 37.1 | -9.2 | 2026-10-30 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WDENV | Denver Football, inside six months | 36.9 | -0.3 | 2026-10-30 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WDEN2 | Inverse Denver Football, inside six months | 63.1 | +0.3 | 2026-10-30 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WELEC | Election — Politics, inside six months | 52.9 | -4.3 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WELE2 | Election — Politics, inside two months | 23.2 | -0.8 | 2026-10-30 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFEDE | Federal — Economics, inside six months | 37.2 | +4.0 | 2026-10-30 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WGOOG | Google — Tech Science, inside six months | 63.7 | -2.2 | 2026-10-30 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WGOO2 | Google — Tech Science, inside two months | 78.5 | — | 2026-10-30 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WHIGH | Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 17.5 | +2.7 | 2026-10-30 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WHIG2 | Inverse Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 82.5 | -2.7 | 2026-10-30 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WHIKE | Hike — Economics, inside six months | 39.3 | -2.4 | 2026-10-30 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WHIK2 | Inverse Hike — Economics, inside six months | 60.7 | +2.4 | 2026-10-30 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WHOUS | House — Elections, inside two years | 38.5 | -7.9 | 2026-10-30 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WINCR | Increase — Economics, inside six months | 42.5 | +4.4 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WINC2 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside six months | 57.5 | -4.4 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WINC3 | Increase — Economics, inside two months | 40.0 | +15.5 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WINC4 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside two months | 60.0 | -15.5 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WINTE | Interest — Economics, inside six months | 83.7 | +17.5 | 2026-10-30 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WINT2 | Interest — Economics, inside two months | 72.4 | +21.3 | 2026-10-30 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WJACK | Jacksonville Football, inside six months | 40.9 | +0.4 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WJAC2 | Inverse Jacksonville Football, inside six months | 59.1 | -0.4 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WKANS | Kansas City Football, inside six months | 46.0 | +0.3 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WKAN2 | Inverse Kansas City Football, inside six months | 54.0 | -0.3 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WMATH | Math — Tech Science, inside two months | 48.5 | — | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WMEET | Meeting — Economics, inside six months | 67.1 | +16.0 | 2026-10-30 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WMEE2 | Meeting — Economics, inside two months | 66.0 | +15.4 | 2026-10-30 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WMEE3 | Meeting — Economics, inside two years | 54.4 | +14.0 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WMIAM | Miami Football, inside six months | 9.0 | — | 2026-10-30 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WMIA2 | Inverse Miami Football, inside six months | 91.0 | — | 2026-10-30 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WMIDT | Midterm — Elections, inside six months | 65.4 | -3.7 | 2026-10-30 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WOPEN | Openai — Financials, inside six months | 29.8 | +0.7 | 2026-10-30 | Low & cooling |
| WOPE2 | Openai — Financials, inside two years | 49.5 | +4.4 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & climbing |
| WPART | Party — Elections, inside six months | 45.7 | +6.1 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WPITT | Pittsburgh Football, inside six months | 45.8 | -7.3 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WPIT2 | Inverse Pittsburgh Football, inside six months | 54.2 | +7.3 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WPRES | President — Politics, inside six months | 52.2 | -6.2 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WRAC2 | Race — Elections, inside two years | 36.8 | -8.4 | 2026-10-30 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WRATE | Rate — Economics, inside six months | 53.3 | -4.9 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WRAT2 | Inverse Rate — Economics, inside six months | 46.7 | +4.9 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRAT3 | Rate — Economics, inside two months | 50.5 | +2.0 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRAT4 | Rates — Economics, inside two months | 69.6 | +18.5 | 2026-10-30 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WRELE | Released — Tech Science, inside six months | 55.1 | +6.6 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WREPU | Republican — Elections, inside two weeks | 62.9 | -2.8 | 2026-10-30 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WREP2 | Republican — Elections, inside two years | 43.3 | -4.6 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WRESE | Reserve — Economics, inside six months | 56.5 | -11.7 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WSANF | San Francisco Football, inside six months | 50.7 | -1.9 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WSAN2 | Inverse San Francisco Football, inside six months | 49.3 | +1.9 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WSCOR | Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 15.6 | +3.8 | 2026-10-30 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WSCO2 | Inverse Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 84.4 | -3.8 | 2026-10-30 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WSEA2 | Seats — Elections, inside two weeks | 49.3 | -2.3 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WSENA | Senate — Elections, inside six months | 47.9 | -8.1 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WTAYL | Taylor Swift — Culture, inside six months | 40.6 | +11.7 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WTRUM | Trump — Politics, inside six months | 33.4 | +0.1 | 2026-10-30 | Low & climbing |
| WWASH | Washington Football, inside six months | 41.2 | +0.3 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WWAS2 | Inverse Washington Football, inside six months | 58.8 | -0.3 | 2026-10-30 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.