The Index Desk Report
LATESTMonday, October 5, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
26.1Low
74 / 148 live20 elevated27 calm
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 26.1 (Low), with no daily change published.
Constituents rebalanced; the basket changed too much to chain, so the series is rebased at 26.1 and price moves resume tomorrow. Not a market move.
The board: 74 of 148 benchmarks live — 20 elevated (≥60), 27 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Oct 2026) prices +4.2bps expected change (81% hold); cumulative +47.1bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Sep 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.58% (80% band 3.44–3.69%, n=21 strikes).
Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WREP2 32.0 (▼44.7) — Republican — Elections, inside two years, down 44.7 on the day.
- WHOUS 33.1 (▼32.9) — House — Elections, inside two years, down 32.9 on the day.
- WRAC2 33.1 (▼26.8) — Race — Elections, inside two years, down 26.8 on the day.
- WRATE 33.7 (▼20.0) — Rate — Economics, inside six months, down 20.0 on the day.
- WRAT2 66.3 (▲20.0) — Inverse Rate — Economics, inside six months, up 20.0 on the day.
Projection watch
- WINT2 projected 72.0 in 14d (80% band 46–98), trending up.
- WINCR projected 49.9 in 14d (80% band 26–74), trending up.
- WINC2 projected 50.1 in 14d (80% band 26–74), trending down.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | As of | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 25.5 | +0.1 | 2026-10-05 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 4.2 | — | 2026-10-05 | Very low & climbing |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 44.5 | +0.2 | 2026-10-05 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 48.1 | 0.0 | 2026-10-05 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 36.8 | — | 2026-10-05 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 44.0 | 0.0 | 2026-10-05 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 26.5 | -1.6 | 2026-10-05 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 56.9 | -0.3 | 2026-10-05 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 63.5 | -0.4 | 2026-10-05 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 13.8 | -0.8 | 2026-10-05 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 82.8 | — | 2026-10-05 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 59.9 | -0.2 | 2026-10-05 | Moderate & cooling |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 50.5 | -0.2 | 2026-10-05 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WELW | Election Week | 7.0 | — | 2026-10-05 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 28.2 | 0.0 | 2026-10-05 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 26.8 | +0.1 | 2026-10-05 | Low & climbing |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 47.6 | 0.0 | 2026-10-05 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 77.0 | -0.5 | 2026-10-05 | Elevated & climbing |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 67.3 | -2.8 | 2026-10-05 | Elevated & cooling |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 23.9 | 0.0 | 2026-10-05 | Low & steady |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 26.0 | 0.0 | 2026-10-05 | Low & cooling |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 45.2 | -0.5 | 2026-10-05 | Moderate & climbing |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 78.1 | — | 2026-10-05 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 51.8 | — | 2026-10-05 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 97.0 | 0.0 | 2026-10-05 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 76.0 | 0.0 | 2026-10-05 | Elevated & climbing |
| WWRI | World Risk | 26.1 | — | 2026-10-05 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 20.6 | — | 2026-10-05 | Low & climbing |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 48.3 | -0.1 | 2026-10-05 | Moderate & climbing |
| WACHI | Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 22.7 | -3.1 | 2026-10-04 | Low & climbing |
| WACH2 | Inverse Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 77.3 | +3.1 | 2026-10-04 | Elevated & cooling |
| WALBU | Album — Culture, inside six months | 54.9 | -0.3 | 2026-10-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WANTH | Anthropic — Financials, inside six months | 41.9 | -1.9 | 2026-10-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WARTI | Artist — Culture, inside six months | 54.3 | -0.1 | 2026-10-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WBANK | Bank — Economics, inside six months | 70.0 | -10.3 | 2026-10-04 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WCAPT | Capture — Politics, inside six months | 39.2 | +0.4 | 2026-10-04 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WCODE | Code Arena — Tech Science, inside two months | 43.9 | -12.8 | 2026-10-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WCOUN | Country — Politics, inside six months | 36.7 | -1.2 | 2026-10-04 | Low & cooling |
| WDEMO | Democratic — Elections, inside two years | 34.1 | -10.2 | 2026-10-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WELEC | Election — Politics, inside six months | 42.9 | +2.3 | 2026-10-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WELE2 | Election — Politics, inside two months | 58.0 | +1.5 | 2026-10-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WFEDE | Federal — Economics, inside six months | 46.7 | +11.2 | 2026-10-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WGOOG | Google — Tech Science, inside six months | 62.7 | -5.7 | 2026-10-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WGOO2 | Google — Tech Science, inside two months | 73.6 | -1.6 | 2026-10-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WHIGH | Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 25.3 | -3.5 | 2026-10-04 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WHIG2 | Inverse Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 74.7 | +3.5 | 2026-10-04 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WHIKE | Hike — Economics, inside six months | 41.6 | +9.4 | 2026-10-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WHIK2 | Inverse Hike — Economics, inside six months | 58.4 | -9.4 | 2026-10-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WHOUS | House — Elections, inside two years | 33.1 | -32.9 | 2026-10-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WINCR | Increase — Economics, inside six months | 46.1 | -2.1 | 2026-10-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WINC2 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside six months | 53.9 | +2.1 | 2026-10-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WINC3 | Increase — Economics, inside two months | 33.5 | +11.6 | 2026-10-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WINC4 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside two months | 66.5 | -11.6 | 2026-10-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WINTE | Interest — Economics, inside six months | 74.0 | -2.2 | 2026-10-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WINT2 | Interest — Economics, inside two months | 67.7 | +7.0 | 2026-10-04 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WMATH | Math — Tech Science, inside two months | 45.6 | -10.3 | 2026-10-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WMEET | Meeting — Economics, inside six months | 63.6 | +6.8 | 2026-10-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WMEE2 | Meeting — Economics, inside two months | 52.4 | -6.7 | 2026-10-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WMEE3 | Meeting — Economics, inside two years | 36.0 | +2.0 | 2026-10-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WOPEN | Openai — Financials, inside six months | 35.1 | -1.2 | 2026-10-04 | Low & steady |
| WOPE2 | Openai — Financials, inside two years | 45.8 | -1.2 | 2026-10-04 | Moderate & cooling |
| WPRES | President — Politics, inside six months | 27.4 | +2.2 | 2026-10-04 | Low & cooling |
| WRAC2 | Race — Elections, inside two years | 33.1 | -26.8 | 2026-10-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WRATE | Rate — Economics, inside six months | 33.7 | -20.0 | 2026-10-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WRAT2 | Inverse Rate — Economics, inside six months | 66.3 | +20.0 | 2026-10-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WRAT3 | Rate — Economics, inside two months | 62.1 | -0.2 | 2026-10-04 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WRAT4 | Rates — Economics, inside two months | 64.6 | -2.1 | 2026-10-04 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WRELE | Released — Tech Science, inside six months | 58.4 | — | 2026-10-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WREP2 | Republican — Elections, inside two years | 32.0 | -44.7 | 2026-10-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WRESE | Reserve — Economics, inside six months | 55.2 | +0.5 | 2026-10-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WSCOR | Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 23.6 | -1.8 | 2026-10-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WSCO2 | Inverse Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 76.4 | +1.8 | 2026-10-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WTAYL | Taylor Swift — Culture, inside six months | 57.5 | +5.8 | 2026-10-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WTRUM | Trump — Politics, inside six months | 26.8 | +2.2 | 2026-10-04 | Low & steady |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.