The Index Desk Report
LATESTMonday, September 14, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
22.6Low
111 / 139 live42 elevated50 calm
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 22.6 (Low), down 0.3.
Rose 0.6 to 22.6 (Low), led by commodity-stress (20% leg) (27→26%) −0.3 repricing; geopolitical-risk (40% leg) +0.1 repricing; climate-risk (15% leg) (28→27%) −0.1 repricing.
The board: 111 of 139 benchmarks live — 42 elevated (≥60), 50 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +19.9bps expected change (19% hold); cumulative +41.2bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Sep 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.52% (80% band 3.32–3.69%, n=21 strikes).
Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WINF 62.5 (▲2.0) — Rose 2.0 to 62.5 (Elevated), led by Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0… (33→58%) +1.1 repricing, +0.1 reweight; Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? (84→85%) +0.5 repricing; Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? (13→13%) −0.1 repricing.
- WCOS 25.9 (▼1.4) — Fell 1.4 to 25.9 (Low), led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Octob… (9→7%) −0.6 repricing; Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? (24→23%) −0.3 repricing; Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October… (16→17%) +0.3 repricing, +0.1 reweight.
- WEHI 43.8 (▼1.2) — Fell 1.2 to 43.8 (Moderate), led by 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House (50→53%) −0.3 repricing, −0.1 reweight; Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister… (68→88%) −1.4 repricing, +1.0 reweight; Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in Californi… (31→30%) −0.1 repricing, −0.1 reweight.
- WARI 49.4 (▲1.2) — Rose 1.2 to 49.4 (Moderate), led by Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? (6→42%) +0.6 repricing; OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? (3→6%) +0.2 repricing; Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? (14→23%) +0.2 repricing.
- WPTI 26.5 (▼1.2) — Fell 0.9 to 26.5 (Low), led by Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in… (22→16%) −0.8 repricing, +0.1 reweight; Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028?… (60→59%) −0.3 repricing; Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by Dec… (34→32%) −0.1 repricing.
Projection watch
- WSEA2 projected 27.5 in 14d (80% band 0–64), trending down.
- WHOUS projected 18.2 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
- WREP2 projected 25.7 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | As of | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 19.2 | +0.2 | 2026-09-14 | Very low & climbing, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 6.2 | +0.5 | 2026-09-14 | Very low & cooling |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 43.8 | -1.2 | 2026-09-14 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 49.4 | +1.2 | 2026-09-14 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 22.9 | 0.0 | 2026-09-14 | Low & cooling |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 39.1 | 0.0 | 2026-09-14 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 26.9 | -0.7 | 2026-09-14 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 44.6 | +1.0 | 2026-09-14 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 26.5 | -1.2 | 2026-09-14 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 25.9 | -1.4 | 2026-09-14 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 65.9 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 61.4 | +0.5 | 2026-09-14 | Elevated & climbing |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 42.3 | 0.0 | 2026-09-14 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WELW | Election Week | 29.7 | — | 2026-08-25 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 31.7 | -0.7 | 2026-09-14 | Low & climbing |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 21.5 | -1.1 | 2026-09-14 | Low & cooling |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 26.8 | -0.1 | 2026-09-14 | Low & steady |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 62.5 | +2.0 | 2026-09-14 | Elevated & climbing |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 73.2 | 0.0 | 2026-09-14 | Elevated & climbing |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 20.0 | -0.6 | 2026-09-14 | Low & climbing |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 28.9 | +0.3 | 2026-09-14 | Low & steady |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 43.1 | +0.4 | 2026-09-14 | Moderate & steady |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 27.1 | — | 2026-09-07 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 60.0 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 97.0 | — | 2026-09-08 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 61.9 | 0.0 | 2026-09-14 | Elevated & steady |
| WWRI | World Risk | 22.6 | -0.3 | 2026-09-14 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 19.8 | -0.3 | 2026-09-14 | Very low & steady |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 29.9 | -0.8 | 2026-09-14 | Low & cooling |
| WACHI | Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 22.5 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WACH2 | Inverse Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 77.5 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WALBU | Album — Culture, inside six months | 64.0 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WANTH | Anthropic — Financials, inside six months | 46.9 | — | 2026-09-13 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WARTI | Artist — Culture, inside six months | 48.2 | — | 2026-09-13 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WBALT | Baltimore Football, inside six months | 26.1 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WBAL2 | Inverse Baltimore Football, inside six months | 73.9 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WBANK | Bank — Economics, inside six months | 67.6 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WBUFF | Buffalo Football, inside six months | 34.3 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WBUF2 | Inverse Buffalo Football, inside six months | 65.7 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WCAPT | Capture — Politics, inside six months | 42.8 | — | 2026-09-13 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WCHIC | Chicago Football, inside six months | 18.1 | — | 2026-09-13 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WCHI2 | Inverse Chicago Football, inside six months | 81.9 | — | 2026-09-13 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WCINC | Cincinnati Football, inside six months | 24.7 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCIN2 | Inverse Cincinnati Football, inside six months | 75.3 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WCLEV | Cleveland Football, inside six months | 24.9 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WCLE2 | Inverse Cleveland Football, inside six months | 75.1 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WCODE | Code Arena — Tech Science, inside two months | 62.2 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WCOUN | Country — Politics, inside six months | 35.0 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & steady |
| WDALL | Dallas Football, inside six months | 22.8 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WDAL2 | Inverse Dallas Football, inside six months | 77.2 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WDEMO | Democratic — Elections, inside two years | 44.7 | — | 2026-09-13 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WDENV | Denver Football, inside six months | 27.0 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling |
| WDEN2 | Inverse Denver Football, inside six months | 73.0 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & climbing |
| WDETR | Detroit Football, inside six months | 18.1 | — | 2026-09-13 | Very low & steady |
| WDET2 | Inverse Detroit Football, inside six months | 81.9 | — | 2026-09-13 | Very high & steady |
| WELEC | Election — Politics, inside six months | 47.0 | — | 2026-09-13 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WELE2 | Election — Politics, inside two months | 72.4 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WFEDE | Federal — Economics, inside six months | 29.9 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WGOOG | Google — Tech Science, inside six months | 63.7 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WGREE | Green Bay Football, inside six months | 25.2 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling |
| WGRE2 | Inverse Green Bay Football, inside six months | 74.8 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & climbing |
| WHIGH | Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 29.4 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WHIG2 | Inverse Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 70.6 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WHIKE | Hike — Economics, inside six months | 45.9 | — | 2026-09-13 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WHIK2 | Inverse Hike — Economics, inside six months | 54.1 | — | 2026-09-13 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WHOUS | House — Elections, inside two years | 35.4 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WINCR | Increase — Economics, inside six months | 34.2 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WINC2 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside six months | 65.8 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WINC3 | Increase — Economics, inside two months | 36.0 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WINC4 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside two months | 64.0 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WINTE | Interest — Economics, inside six months | 65.0 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WINT2 | Interest — Economics, inside two months | 67.1 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WJACK | Jacksonville Football, inside six months | 18.7 | — | 2026-09-13 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WJAC2 | Inverse Jacksonville Football, inside six months | 81.3 | — | 2026-09-13 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WKANS | Kansas City Football, inside six months | 23.6 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WKAN2 | Inverse Kansas City Football, inside six months | 76.4 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WLASV | Las Vegas Football, inside six months | 19.3 | — | 2026-09-13 | Very low & climbing, volatile |
| WLAS2 | Inverse Las Vegas Football, inside six months | 80.7 | — | 2026-09-13 | Very high & cooling, volatile |
| WMEET | Meeting — Economics, inside six months | 61.9 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WMEE2 | Meeting — Economics, inside two months | 65.3 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WMEE3 | Meeting — Economics, inside two years | 56.6 | — | 2026-09-13 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WMIAM | Miami Football, inside six months | 20.9 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WMIA2 | Inverse Miami Football, inside six months | 79.1 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WMINN | Minnesota Football, inside six months | 17.0 | — | 2026-09-13 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WMIN2 | Inverse Minnesota Football, inside six months | 83.0 | — | 2026-09-13 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WNEWY | New York Football, inside six months | 11.9 | — | 2026-09-13 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WNEW3 | Inverse New York Football, inside six months | 88.1 | — | 2026-09-13 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WOPEN | Openai — Financials, inside six months | 38.4 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling |
| WOPE2 | Openai — Financials, inside two years | 52.1 | — | 2026-09-13 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WPHIL | Philadelphia Football, inside six months | 21.5 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling |
| WPHI2 | Inverse Philadelphia Football, inside six months | 78.5 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & climbing |
| WPRES | President — Politics, inside six months | 38.4 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & climbing |
| WRATE | Rate — Economics, inside six months | 66.9 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WRAT2 | Inverse Rate — Economics, inside six months | 33.1 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WRAT3 | Rate — Economics, inside two months | 59.2 | — | 2026-09-13 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRAT4 | Rates — Economics, inside two months | 70.3 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WRELE | Released — Tech Science, inside six months | 38.5 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WREP2 | Republican — Elections, inside two years | 40.5 | — | 2026-09-13 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRESE | Reserve — Economics, inside six months | 39.7 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WSANF | San Francisco Football, inside six months | 27.5 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WSAN2 | Inverse San Francisco Football, inside six months | 72.5 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WSCOR | Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 25.8 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WSCO2 | Inverse Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 74.2 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WSEAT | Seats — Elections, inside two months | 73.4 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WSEA2 | Seats — Elections, inside two weeks | 46.5 | — | 2026-09-13 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WSENA | Senate — Elections, inside six months | 56.1 | — | 2026-09-13 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WTAMP | Tampa Bay Football, inside six months | 19.1 | — | 2026-09-13 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WTAM2 | Inverse Tampa Bay Football, inside six months | 80.9 | — | 2026-09-13 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WTAYL | Taylor Swift — Culture, inside six months | 47.8 | — | 2026-09-13 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WTRUM | Trump — Politics, inside six months | 25.5 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling |
| WYORK | York — Sports, inside six months | 35.6 | — | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling, volatile |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.