The Index Desk Report
LATESTSunday, September 20, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
21.7Low
88 / 139 live30 elevated35 calm
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 21.7 (Low), up 0.5.
Rose 0.8 to 21.7 (Low), led by geopolitical-risk (40% leg) (20→21%) +0.4 repricing; climate-risk (15% leg) (26→27%) +0.2 repricing; recession-odds (25% leg) −0.1 repricing.
The board: 88 of 139 benchmarks live — 30 elevated (≥60), 35 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Oct 2026) prices +13.8bps expected change (44% hold); cumulative +55.5bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Sep 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.58% (80% band 3.42–3.75%, n=21 strikes).
Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WCDR 27.1 (▲1.4) — Rose 1.1 to 27.1 (Low), led by Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the… (5→8%) +1.0 repricing; Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magn… (49→49%) −0.1 repricing.
- WGRI 21.3 (▲0.9) — Rose 0.9 to 21.3 (Low), led by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (16→17%) +0.3 repricing; Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the… (81→82%) +0.1 repricing, +0.2 reweight; Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? (4→5%) +0.1 repricing.
- WARI 51.2 (▼0.9) — Fell 0.5 to 51.2 (Moderate), led by Anthropic IPO before 2027? (76→72%) −0.5 repricing, −0.1 reweight; Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? (55→54%) −0.2 repricing, −0.1 reweight; Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? −0.0 repricing, −0.1 reweight.
- WEHI 42.1 (▼0.7) — Fell 0.7 to 42.1 (Moderate), led by Will the Democratic Party control the House after t… (91→94%) −0.8 repricing; Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister… (92→85%) +0.6 repricing; Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the… (81→82%) −0.4 repricing.
- WCGF 37.1 (▼0.5) — Fell 0.6 to 37.1 (Low), led by Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? (82→79%) −0.6 repricing, +0.2 reweight; Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? (83→82%) −0.1 repricing, −0.1 reweight; Will Solana reach $120 by December 31, 2026? (78→70%) −0.2 repricing.
Projection watch
- WELE2 projected 53.8 in 14d (80% band 6–100), trending up.
- WINCR projected 46.7 in 14d (80% band 23–70), trending up.
- WINC2 projected 53.3 in 14d (80% band 30–77), trending down.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | As of | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 21.3 | +0.9 | 2026-09-20 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 2.1 | — | 2026-09-20 | Very low & cooling |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 42.1 | -0.7 | 2026-09-20 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 51.2 | -0.9 | 2026-09-20 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 23.7 | -0.4 | 2026-09-20 | Low & steady |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 37.1 | -0.5 | 2026-09-20 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 27.1 | +1.4 | 2026-09-20 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 44.6 | 0.0 | 2026-09-20 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 24.8 | 0.0 | 2026-09-20 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 16.0 | 0.0 | 2026-09-20 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 65.9 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 61.3 | 0.0 | 2026-09-20 | Elevated & steady |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 41.7 | — | 2026-09-19 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WELW | Election Week | 29.7 | — | 2026-08-25 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 32.4 | +0.2 | 2026-09-20 | Low & steady |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 19.2 | +0.2 | 2026-09-20 | Very low & cooling |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 26.4 | — | 2026-09-20 | Low & steady |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 73.8 | 0.0 | 2026-09-20 | Elevated & climbing |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 72.5 | — | 2026-09-19 | Elevated & climbing |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 20.8 | 0.0 | 2026-09-20 | Low & climbing |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 30.0 | +0.2 | 2026-09-20 | Low & climbing |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 41.6 | -0.2 | 2026-09-20 | Moderate & cooling |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 27.1 | — | 2026-09-07 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 60.0 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 97.0 | — | 2026-09-08 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 63.8 | 0.0 | 2026-09-20 | Elevated & climbing |
| WWRI | World Risk | 21.7 | +0.5 | 2026-09-20 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 15.6 | — | 2026-09-20 | Very low & cooling |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 29.1 | 0.0 | 2026-09-20 | Low & cooling |
| WACHI | Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 20.2 | — | 2026-09-17 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WACH2 | Inverse Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 79.8 | — | 2026-09-17 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WALBU | Album — Culture, inside six months | 67.5 | — | 2026-09-17 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WANTH | Anthropic — Financials, inside six months | 42.0 | — | 2026-09-17 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WARTI | Artist — Culture, inside six months | 56.1 | — | 2026-09-17 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WBALT | Baltimore Football, inside six months | 31.7 | — | 2026-09-17 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WBAL2 | Inverse Baltimore Football, inside six months | 68.3 | — | 2026-09-17 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WBANK | Bank — Economics, inside six months | 67.0 | — | 2026-09-17 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WBUFF | Buffalo Football, inside six months | 44.2 | — | 2026-09-17 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WBUF2 | Inverse Buffalo Football, inside six months | 55.8 | — | 2026-09-17 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WCAPT | Capture — Politics, inside six months | 39.0 | — | 2026-09-17 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCODE | Code Arena — Tech Science, inside two months | 55.0 | — | 2026-09-17 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WCOUN | Country — Politics, inside six months | 30.2 | — | 2026-09-17 | Low & cooling |
| WDEMO | Democratic — Elections, inside two years | 40.4 | — | 2026-09-17 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WDENV | Denver Football, inside six months | 28.8 | — | 2026-09-17 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WDEN2 | Inverse Denver Football, inside six months | 71.2 | — | 2026-09-17 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WELEC | Election — Politics, inside six months | 43.1 | — | 2026-09-17 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WELE2 | Election — Politics, inside two months | 47.2 | — | 2026-09-17 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WFEDE | Federal — Economics, inside six months | 27.3 | — | 2026-09-17 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WGOOG | Google — Tech Science, inside six months | 62.2 | — | 2026-09-17 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WHIGH | Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 24.8 | — | 2026-09-17 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WHIG2 | Inverse Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 75.2 | — | 2026-09-17 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WHIKE | Hike — Economics, inside six months | 33.7 | — | 2026-09-17 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WHIK2 | Inverse Hike — Economics, inside six months | 66.3 | — | 2026-09-17 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WHOUS | House — Elections, inside two years | 54.1 | — | 2026-09-17 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WINCR | Increase — Economics, inside six months | 41.3 | — | 2026-09-17 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WINC2 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside six months | 58.7 | — | 2026-09-17 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WINC3 | Increase — Economics, inside two months | 29.1 | — | 2026-09-17 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WINC4 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside two months | 70.9 | — | 2026-09-17 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WINTE | Interest — Economics, inside six months | 69.4 | — | 2026-09-17 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WINT2 | Interest — Economics, inside two months | 74.3 | — | 2026-09-17 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WJACK | Jacksonville Football, inside six months | 25.8 | — | 2026-09-17 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WJAC2 | Inverse Jacksonville Football, inside six months | 74.2 | — | 2026-09-17 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WKANS | Kansas City Football, inside six months | 35.3 | — | 2026-09-17 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WKAN2 | Inverse Kansas City Football, inside six months | 64.7 | — | 2026-09-17 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WMEET | Meeting — Economics, inside six months | 59.8 | — | 2026-09-17 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WMEE2 | Meeting — Economics, inside two months | 81.9 | — | 2026-09-17 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WMEE3 | Meeting — Economics, inside two years | 40.1 | — | 2026-09-17 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WOPEN | Openai — Financials, inside six months | 38.6 | — | 2026-09-17 | Low & climbing |
| WOPE2 | Openai — Financials, inside two years | 45.6 | — | 2026-09-17 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WPRES | President — Politics, inside six months | 33.6 | — | 2026-09-17 | Low & cooling |
| WRATE | Rate — Economics, inside six months | 66.5 | — | 2026-09-17 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WRAT2 | Inverse Rate — Economics, inside six months | 33.5 | — | 2026-09-17 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WRAT3 | Rate — Economics, inside two months | 80.9 | — | 2026-09-17 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WRAT4 | Rates — Economics, inside two months | 90.9 | — | 2026-09-17 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WRELE | Released — Tech Science, inside six months | 50.7 | — | 2026-09-17 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WREP2 | Republican — Elections, inside two years | 54.2 | — | 2026-09-17 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRESE | Reserve — Economics, inside six months | 45.4 | — | 2026-09-17 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WSANF | San Francisco Football, inside six months | 36.3 | — | 2026-09-17 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WSAN2 | Inverse San Francisco Football, inside six months | 63.7 | — | 2026-09-17 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WSCOR | Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 21.8 | — | 2026-09-17 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WSCO2 | Inverse Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 78.2 | — | 2026-09-17 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WSEAT | Seats — Elections, inside two months | 66.7 | — | 2026-09-17 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WSEA2 | Seats — Elections, inside two weeks | 60.8 | — | 2026-09-17 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WSENA | Senate — Elections, inside six months | 71.2 | — | 2026-09-17 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WTAMP | Tampa Bay Football, inside six months | 25.2 | — | 2026-09-17 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WTAM2 | Inverse Tampa Bay Football, inside six months | 74.8 | — | 2026-09-17 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WTAYL | Taylor Swift — Culture, inside six months | 43.7 | — | 2026-09-17 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WTRUM | Trump — Politics, inside six months | 26.9 | — | 2026-09-17 | Low & steady |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.