The Index Desk Report
LATESTSunday, September 13, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
22.9Low
115 / 139 live45 elevated49 calm
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 22.9 (Low), flat.
Rose 0.6 to 22.9 (Low), led by geopolitical-risk (40% leg) +0.2 repricing; climate-risk (15% leg) (28→28%) −0.1 repricing.
The board: 115 of 139 benchmarks live — 45 elevated (≥60), 49 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +19.8bps expected change (20% hold); cumulative +42.3bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Sep 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.56% (80% band 3.32–3.85%, n=21 strikes).
Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WARI 48.2 (▼3.1) — Fell 3.1 to 48.2 (Moderate), led by Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? (57→50%) −1.5 repricing, −0.1 reweight; Anthropic IPO before 2027? (91→84%) −0.8 repricing, +0.1 reweight; OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? (8→3%) −0.3 repricing.
- WINF 60.5 (▼2.2) — Fell 2.2 to 60.5 (Elevated), led by Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0… (59→33%) −1.1 repricing, +0.1 reweight; Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end… (44→36%) −0.6 repricing; Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 4.50… +0.0 repricing, −0.1 reweight.
- WCDR 27.6 (▼0.6) — Fell 0.5 to 27.6 (Low), led by Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the… (7→5%) −0.3 repricing; Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magn… (50→49%) −0.1 repricing; Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 202… (17→12%) −0.1 repricing.
- WCGF 39.1 (▲0.5) — Rose 0.5 to 39.1 (Low), led by Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? (60→61%) +0.2 repricing; Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? (85→86%) +0.2 repricing; Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026? (56→70%) +0.2 repricing.
- WGRI 19.0 (▲0.4) — Rose 0.5 to 19.0 (Very low), led by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (16→17%) +0.3 repricing; Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the… (79→80%) +0.1 repricing.
Projection watch
- WRELE projected 31.6 in 14d (80% band 0–63), trending down.
- WELE2 projected 73.3 in 14d (80% band 39–100), trending up.
- WINCR projected 41.6 in 14d (80% band 18–65), trending up.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | As of | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 19.0 | +0.4 | 2026-09-13 | Very low & climbing, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 5.7 | 0.0 | 2026-09-13 | Very low & cooling |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 45.0 | 0.0 | 2026-09-13 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 48.2 | -3.1 | 2026-09-13 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 22.9 | 0.0 | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 39.1 | +0.5 | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 27.6 | -0.6 | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 43.6 | 0.0 | 2026-09-13 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 27.7 | 0.0 | 2026-09-13 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 27.3 | 0.0 | 2026-09-13 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 65.9 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 60.9 | 0.0 | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & steady |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 42.3 | — | 2026-09-13 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WELW | Election Week | 29.7 | — | 2026-08-25 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 32.4 | -0.2 | 2026-09-13 | Low & climbing |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 22.6 | -0.3 | 2026-09-13 | Low & cooling |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 26.9 | 0.0 | 2026-09-13 | Low & steady |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 60.5 | -2.2 | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & climbing |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 73.2 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & climbing |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 20.6 | +0.2 | 2026-09-13 | Low & climbing |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 28.6 | 0.0 | 2026-09-13 | Low & steady |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 42.7 | +0.3 | 2026-09-13 | Moderate & steady |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 27.1 | — | 2026-09-07 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 60.0 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 97.0 | — | 2026-09-08 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 61.9 | 0.0 | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & steady |
| WWRI | World Risk | 22.9 | 0.0 | 2026-09-13 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 20.1 | 0.0 | 2026-09-13 | Low & steady |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 30.7 | +0.1 | 2026-09-13 | Low & steady |
| WACHI | Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 26.0 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WACH2 | Inverse Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 74.0 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WALBU | Album — Culture, inside six months | 66.3 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WANGE | Angeles — Sports, inside six months | 67.7 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WANTH | Anthropic — Financials, inside six months | 48.5 | — | 2026-09-12 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WARTI | Artist — Culture, inside six months | 62.3 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WBALT | Baltimore Football, inside six months | 33.3 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WBAL2 | Inverse Baltimore Football, inside six months | 66.7 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WBANK | Bank — Economics, inside six months | 68.1 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WBUFF | Buffalo Football, inside six months | 31.9 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WBUF2 | Inverse Buffalo Football, inside six months | 68.1 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WCAPT | Capture — Politics, inside six months | 50.1 | — | 2026-09-12 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WCHIC | Chicago Football, inside six months | 19.8 | — | 2026-09-12 | Very low & climbing, volatile |
| WCHI2 | Inverse Chicago Football, inside six months | 80.2 | — | 2026-09-12 | Very high & cooling, volatile |
| WCINC | Cincinnati Football, inside six months | 33.7 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WCIN2 | Inverse Cincinnati Football, inside six months | 66.3 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WCODE | Code Arena — Tech Science, inside two months | 45.6 | — | 2026-09-12 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WCOUN | Country — Politics, inside six months | 34.5 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & cooling |
| WDALL | Dallas Football, inside six months | 26.4 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WDAL2 | Inverse Dallas Football, inside six months | 73.6 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WDEMO | Democratic — Elections, inside two years | 38.9 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WDENV | Denver Football, inside six months | 32.9 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & climbing |
| WDEN2 | Inverse Denver Football, inside six months | 67.1 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & cooling |
| WDETR | Detroit Football, inside six months | 20.7 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & climbing |
| WDET2 | Inverse Detroit Football, inside six months | 79.3 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & cooling |
| WELEC | Election — Politics, inside six months | 49.7 | — | 2026-09-12 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WELE2 | Election — Politics, inside two months | 67.4 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WFEDE | Federal — Economics, inside six months | 42.8 | — | 2026-09-12 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WGOOG | Google — Tech Science, inside six months | 56.8 | — | 2026-09-12 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WGREE | Green Bay Football, inside six months | 30.2 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & steady |
| WGRE2 | Inverse Green Bay Football, inside six months | 69.8 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & steady |
| WHIGH | Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 30.7 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WHIG2 | Inverse Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 69.3 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WHIKE | Hike — Economics, inside six months | 52.3 | — | 2026-09-12 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WHIK2 | Inverse Hike — Economics, inside six months | 47.7 | — | 2026-09-12 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WHOUS | House — Elections, inside two years | 56.9 | — | 2026-09-12 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WINCR | Increase — Economics, inside six months | 36.8 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WINC2 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside six months | 63.2 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WINC3 | Increase — Economics, inside two months | 34.0 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WINC4 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside two months | 66.0 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WINTE | Interest — Economics, inside six months | 61.8 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WINT2 | Interest — Economics, inside two months | 71.7 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WJACK | Jacksonville Football, inside six months | 26.4 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & climbing |
| WJAC2 | Inverse Jacksonville Football, inside six months | 73.6 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & cooling |
| WKANS | Kansas City Football, inside six months | 31.9 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WKAN2 | Inverse Kansas City Football, inside six months | 68.1 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WLASV | Las Vegas Football, inside six months | 21.6 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WLAS2 | Inverse Las Vegas Football, inside six months | 78.4 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WLOSA | Los Angeles Football, inside six months | 29.6 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & cooling |
| WLOS2 | Inverse Los Angeles Football, inside six months | 70.4 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & climbing |
| WMEET | Meeting — Economics, inside six months | 59.8 | — | 2026-09-12 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WMEE2 | Meeting — Economics, inside two months | 66.5 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WMEE3 | Meeting — Economics, inside two years | 55.4 | — | 2026-09-12 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WMIAM | Miami Football, inside six months | 23.7 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WMIA2 | Inverse Miami Football, inside six months | 76.3 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WMINN | Minnesota Football, inside six months | 22.9 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WMIN2 | Inverse Minnesota Football, inside six months | 77.1 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WNEWY | New York Football, inside six months | 14.0 | — | 2026-09-12 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WNEW3 | Inverse New York Football, inside six months | 86.0 | — | 2026-09-12 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WOPEN | Openai — Financials, inside six months | 34.0 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & cooling |
| WOPE2 | Openai — Financials, inside two years | 50.9 | — | 2026-09-12 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WPARL | Parliamentary — Elections, inside two months | 40.2 | — | 2026-09-12 | Moderate & cooling |
| WPHIL | Philadelphia Football, inside six months | 22.4 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & cooling |
| WPHI2 | Inverse Philadelphia Football, inside six months | 77.6 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & climbing |
| WPRES | President — Politics, inside six months | 36.9 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & steady |
| WRATE | Rate — Economics, inside six months | 66.5 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WRAT2 | Inverse Rate — Economics, inside six months | 33.5 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WRAT3 | Rate — Economics, inside two months | 63.5 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WRAT4 | Rates — Economics, inside two months | 74.5 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WRELE | Released — Tech Science, inside six months | 38.1 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WREP2 | Republican — Elections, inside two years | 68.5 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WRESE | Reserve — Economics, inside six months | 55.9 | — | 2026-09-12 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WSANF | San Francisco Football, inside six months | 23.1 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WSAN2 | Inverse San Francisco Football, inside six months | 76.9 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WSCOR | Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 24.4 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WSCO2 | Inverse Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 75.6 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WSEAT | Seats — Elections, inside two months | 69.2 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WSEA2 | Seats — Elections, inside two weeks | 45.3 | — | 2026-09-12 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WSEA3 | Seattle Football, inside six months | 32.2 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WSEA4 | Inverse Seattle Football, inside six months | 67.8 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WSENA | Senate — Elections, inside six months | 68.9 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WTAMP | Tampa Bay Football, inside six months | 22.9 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WTAM2 | Inverse Tampa Bay Football, inside six months | 77.1 | — | 2026-09-12 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WTAYL | Taylor Swift — Culture, inside six months | 48.2 | — | 2026-09-12 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WTRUM | Trump — Politics, inside six months | 26.5 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & cooling |
| WYORK | York — Sports, inside six months | 32.5 | — | 2026-09-12 | Low & cooling, volatile |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.