The Index Desk Report
Monday, September 21, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
23.8Low
78 / 145 live28 elevated29 calm
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 23.8 (Low), up 2.1.
Rose 2.1 to 23.8 (Low), led by geopolitical-risk (40% leg) (21→26%) +1.8 repricing; climate-risk (15% leg) (27→29%) +0.3 repricing.
The board: 78 of 145 benchmarks live — 28 elevated (≥60), 29 calm (<40).
What moved
- WGRI 25.8 (▲4.5) — Rose 4.5 to 25.8 (Low), led by Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the… (82→99%) +2.0 repricing, +2.7 reweight; Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end… +0.0 repricing, −0.2 reweight; Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? (5→4%) −0.1 repricing, −0.1 reweight.
- WWRI 23.8 (▲2.1) — Rose 2.1 to 23.8 (Low), led by geopolitical-risk (40% leg) (21→26%) +1.8 repricing; climate-risk (15% leg) (27→29%) +0.3 repricing.
- WCDR 29.0 (▲1.9) — Rose 1.9 to 29.0 (Low), led by Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magn… (49→54%) +0.9 repricing, −0.1 reweight; Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the… (8→9%) +0.3 repricing; Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 o… (73→78%) +0.1 repricing, +0.1 reweight.
- WBTP 22.6 (▲1.8) — Rose 1.8 to 22.6 (Low), led by Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? (6→11%) +1.2 repricing; Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? (36→41%) +0.8 repricing; Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? (55→53%) −0.1 repricing, −0.1 reweight.
- WCHI 43.1 (▼1.5) — Fell 1.5 to 43.1 (Moderate), led by Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? (56→58%) −1.0 repricing; Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? (4→4%) −0.4 repricing; Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? (73→74%) −0.1 repricing.
Projection watch
- WINCR projected 45.8 in 14d (80% band 23–69), trending up.
- WINC2 projected 54.2 in 14d (80% band 31–77), trending down.
- WELE2 projected 67.9 in 14d (80% band 17–100), trending up.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | As of | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 25.8 | +4.5 | 2026-09-21 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 2.1 | 0.0 | 2026-09-21 | Very low & cooling |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 42.1 | 0.0 | 2026-09-21 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 52.6 | +1.4 | 2026-09-21 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 23.7 | 0.0 | 2026-09-21 | Low & steady |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 37.1 | 0.0 | 2026-09-21 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 29.0 | +1.9 | 2026-09-21 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 43.1 | -1.5 | 2026-09-21 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 24.8 | 0.0 | 2026-09-21 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 16.0 | 0.0 | 2026-09-21 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 65.9 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 61.3 | 0.0 | 2026-09-21 | Elevated & steady |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 41.7 | — | 2026-09-21 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WELW | Election Week | 29.7 | — | 2026-08-25 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 33.3 | +0.9 | 2026-09-21 | Low & steady |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 19.8 | +0.6 | 2026-09-21 | Very low & cooling |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 26.4 | 0.0 | 2026-09-21 | Low & steady |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 72.7 | -1.1 | 2026-09-21 | Elevated & climbing |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 72.5 | — | 2026-09-21 | Elevated & climbing |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 22.6 | +1.8 | 2026-09-21 | Low & climbing |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 28.6 | -1.4 | 2026-09-21 | Low & steady |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 41.3 | -0.3 | 2026-09-21 | Moderate & cooling |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 27.1 | — | 2026-09-07 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 60.0 | — | 2026-09-13 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 97.0 | — | 2026-09-08 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 62.6 | -1.2 | 2026-09-21 | Elevated & steady |
| WWRI | World Risk | 23.8 | +2.1 | 2026-09-21 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 15.6 | 0.0 | 2026-09-21 | Very low & cooling |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 30.2 | +1.1 | 2026-09-21 | Low & steady |
| WACHI | Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 19.2 | — | 2026-09-20 | Very low & cooling |
| WACH2 | Inverse Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 80.8 | — | 2026-09-20 | Very high & climbing |
| WALBU | Album — Culture, inside six months | 64.3 | — | 2026-09-20 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WANTH | Anthropic — Financials, inside six months | 45.5 | — | 2026-09-20 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WARTI | Artist — Culture, inside six months | 58.5 | — | 2026-09-20 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WBANK | Bank — Economics, inside six months | 82.2 | — | 2026-09-20 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WCAPT | Capture — Politics, inside six months | 37.4 | — | 2026-09-20 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCINC | Cincinnati Football, inside six months | 25.2 | — | 2026-09-20 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCIN2 | Inverse Cincinnati Football, inside six months | 74.8 | — | 2026-09-20 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WCODE | Code Arena — Tech Science, inside two months | 62.2 | — | 2026-09-20 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WCOUN | Country — Politics, inside six months | 40.1 | — | 2026-09-20 | Moderate & climbing |
| WDEMO | Democratic — Elections, inside two years | 40.8 | — | 2026-09-20 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WELEC | Election — Politics, inside six months | 47.7 | — | 2026-09-20 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WELE2 | Election — Politics, inside two months | 62.7 | — | 2026-09-20 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WFEDE | Federal — Economics, inside six months | 34.3 | — | 2026-09-20 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WGOOG | Google — Tech Science, inside six months | 58.8 | — | 2026-09-20 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WHIGH | Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 24.0 | — | 2026-09-20 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WHIG2 | Inverse Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 76.0 | — | 2026-09-20 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WHIKE | Hike — Economics, inside six months | 43.1 | — | 2026-09-20 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WHIK2 | Inverse Hike — Economics, inside six months | 56.9 | — | 2026-09-20 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WHOUS | House — Elections, inside two years | 62.9 | — | 2026-09-20 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WINCR | Increase — Economics, inside six months | 40.5 | — | 2026-09-20 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WINC2 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside six months | 59.5 | — | 2026-09-20 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WINC3 | Increase — Economics, inside two months | 32.2 | — | 2026-09-20 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WINC4 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside two months | 67.8 | — | 2026-09-20 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WINTE | Interest — Economics, inside six months | 69.2 | — | 2026-09-20 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WINT2 | Interest — Economics, inside two months | 80.4 | — | 2026-09-20 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WMEET | Meeting — Economics, inside six months | 61.7 | — | 2026-09-20 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WMEE2 | Meeting — Economics, inside two months | 88.8 | — | 2026-09-20 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WMEE3 | Meeting — Economics, inside two years | 50.4 | — | 2026-09-20 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WNEWO | New Orleans Football, inside six months | 20.5 | — | 2026-09-20 | Low |
| WNEW3 | Inverse New Orleans Football, inside six months | 79.5 | — | 2026-09-20 | Elevated |
| WOPEN | Openai — Financials, inside six months | 37.2 | — | 2026-09-20 | Low & climbing |
| WOPE2 | Openai — Financials, inside two years | 43.7 | — | 2026-09-20 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WPRES | President — Politics, inside six months | 34.0 | — | 2026-09-20 | Low & cooling |
| WRATE | Rate — Economics, inside six months | 63.2 | — | 2026-09-20 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WRAT2 | Inverse Rate — Economics, inside six months | 36.8 | — | 2026-09-20 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WRAT3 | Rate — Economics, inside two months | 83.5 | — | 2026-09-20 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WRAT4 | Rates — Economics, inside two months | 90.3 | — | 2026-09-20 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WRELE | Released — Tech Science, inside six months | 46.5 | — | 2026-09-20 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WREP2 | Republican — Elections, inside two years | 73.9 | — | 2026-09-20 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WRESE | Reserve — Economics, inside six months | 51.4 | — | 2026-09-20 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WSCOR | Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 19.8 | — | 2026-09-20 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WSCO2 | Inverse Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 80.2 | — | 2026-09-20 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WSEAT | Seats — Elections, inside two months | 71.1 | — | 2026-09-20 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WSEA2 | Seats — Elections, inside two weeks | 50.0 | — | 2026-09-20 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WSENA | Senate — Elections, inside six months | 83.0 | — | 2026-09-20 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WTAYL | Taylor Swift — Culture, inside six months | 47.0 | — | 2026-09-20 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WTRUM | Trump — Politics, inside six months | 27.7 | — | 2026-09-20 | Low & steady |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.