The Index Desk Report
Wednesday, October 28, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
20.9Low
77 / 148 live19 elevated30 calm
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 20.9 (Low), down 0.2.
Rose 0.7 to 20.9 (Low), led by geopolitical-risk (40% leg) (27→27%) −0.2 repricing; climate-risk (15% leg) (24→25%) +0.1 repricing; commodity-stress (20% leg) −0.1 repricing.
The board: 77 of 148 benchmarks live — 19 elevated (≥60), 30 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Oct 2026) prices +1bps expected change (94% hold); cumulative +45.6bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Nov 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.92% (80% band 3.56–4.29%, n=21 strikes).
Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WEHI 40.4 (▼3.0) — Fell 3.0 to 40.4 (Moderate), led by Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli l… (28→99%) −3.4 repricing, +2.4 reweight; 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House +0.0 repricing, −0.4 reweight; Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Is… (61→32%) −0.7 repricing, +1.2 reweight.
- WCGF 37.2 (▲2.6) — Rose 2.6 to 37.2 (Low), led by Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? (39→47%) +1.6 repricing; Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? (83→81%) −0.1 repricing, −0.1 reweight; Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? (3→8%) +0.2 repricing.
- WARI 55.4 (▲1.6) — Rose 1.6 to 55.4 (Moderate), led by Will Google have the best AI model at the end of Oc… (87→96%) +0.5 repricing, +0.2 reweight; Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? — Claude (58→60%) +0.3 repricing; Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2… (22→24%) +0.1 repricing.
- WAWD 39.9 (▼1.6) — Fell 1.6 to 39.9 (Low), led by Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing… (88→94%) −2.4 repricing; Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domest… (42→43%) +0.2 repricing, +0.2 reweight; Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026? (88→89%) −0.1 repricing.
- WCHI 51.8 (▼1.5) — Fell 1.5 to 51.8 (Moderate), led by Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing… (88→94%) −1.1 repricing; GTA 6 launch postponed again? (6→6%) +0.2 repricing; Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? (10→11%) +0.1 repricing.
Projection watch
- WSEA2 projected 45.7 in 14d (80% band 7–84), trending down.
- WRAC2 projected 30.5 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
- WINF projected 81.1 in 14d (80% band 70–92), trending up.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | As of | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 26.6 | -0.5 | 2026-10-28 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 1.9 | +0.1 | 2026-10-28 | Very low & cooling |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 40.4 | -3.0 | 2026-10-28 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 55.4 | +1.6 | 2026-10-28 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 15.4 | 0.0 | 2026-10-28 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 37.2 | +2.6 | 2026-10-28 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 25.4 | +1.0 | 2026-10-28 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 51.8 | -1.5 | 2026-10-28 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 53.3 | -0.4 | 2026-10-28 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 13.2 | -0.4 | 2026-10-28 | Very low & climbing, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 82.8 | — | 2026-10-05 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 57.3 | +1.1 | 2026-10-28 | Moderate & cooling |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 50.2 | -0.2 | 2026-10-28 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WELW | Election Week | 7.0 | — | 2026-10-05 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 29.3 | +0.5 | 2026-10-28 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 28.1 | +0.2 | 2026-10-28 | Low & climbing |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 39.9 | -0.6 | 2026-10-28 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 77.7 | +0.7 | 2026-10-28 | Elevated & climbing |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 67.3 | — | 2026-10-05 | Elevated & cooling |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 26.5 | — | 2026-10-28 | Low & climbing |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 25.4 | +0.3 | 2026-10-28 | Low & steady |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 39.9 | -1.6 | 2026-10-28 | Low & steady |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 78.1 | — | 2026-10-05 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 51.8 | — | 2026-10-05 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 97.0 | — | 2026-10-05 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 74.2 | -0.5 | 2026-10-28 | Elevated & climbing |
| WWRI | World Risk | 20.9 | -0.2 | 2026-10-28 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 11.3 | -0.1 | 2026-10-28 | Very low & cooling |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 42.8 | -1.2 | 2026-10-28 | Moderate & climbing |
| WACHI | Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 14.2 | — | 2026-10-27 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WACH2 | Inverse Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 85.8 | — | 2026-10-27 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WALBU | Album — Culture, inside six months | 52.0 | — | 2026-10-27 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WANTH | Anthropic — Financials, inside six months | 35.8 | — | 2026-10-27 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WARTI | Artist — Culture, inside six months | 39.9 | — | 2026-10-27 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCAPT | Capture — Politics, inside six months | 35.3 | — | 2026-10-27 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCODE | Code Arena — Tech Science, inside two months | 51.9 | — | 2026-10-27 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WCOUN | Country — Politics, inside six months | 35.4 | — | 2026-10-27 | Low & cooling |
| WDEMO | Democratic — Elections, inside two years | 37.5 | — | 2026-10-27 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WELEC | Election — Politics, inside six months | 53.3 | — | 2026-10-27 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WELE2 | Election — Politics, inside two months | 59.4 | — | 2026-10-27 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WFEDE | Federal — Economics, inside six months | 40.9 | — | 2026-10-27 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WGOOG | Google — Tech Science, inside six months | 66.2 | — | 2026-10-27 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WGOO2 | Google — Tech Science, inside two months | 74.0 | — | 2026-10-27 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WHIGH | Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 14.4 | — | 2026-10-27 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WHIG2 | Inverse Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 85.6 | — | 2026-10-27 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WHIKE | Hike — Economics, inside six months | 30.7 | — | 2026-10-27 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WHIK2 | Inverse Hike — Economics, inside six months | 69.3 | — | 2026-10-27 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WHOUS | House — Elections, inside two years | 39.3 | — | 2026-10-27 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WINCR | Increase — Economics, inside six months | 37.1 | — | 2026-10-27 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WINC2 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside six months | 62.9 | — | 2026-10-27 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WINC3 | Increase — Economics, inside two months | 34.8 | — | 2026-10-27 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WINC4 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside two months | 65.2 | — | 2026-10-27 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WINT2 | Interest — Economics, inside two months | 56.7 | — | 2026-10-27 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WMATH | Math — Tech Science, inside two months | 40.5 | — | 2026-10-27 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WMEET | Meeting — Economics, inside six months | 49.4 | — | 2026-10-27 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WMEE2 | Meeting — Economics, inside two months | 54.6 | — | 2026-10-27 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WMEE3 | Meeting — Economics, inside two years | 54.2 | — | 2026-10-27 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WMIDT | Midterm — Elections, inside six months | 62.3 | — | 2026-10-27 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WOPEN | Openai — Financials, inside six months | 31.2 | — | 2026-10-27 | Low & cooling |
| WOPE2 | Openai — Financials, inside two years | 47.0 | — | 2026-10-27 | Moderate & cooling |
| WPART | Party — Elections, inside six months | 49.3 | — | 2026-10-27 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WPRES | President — Politics, inside six months | 61.4 | — | 2026-10-27 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WRAC2 | Race — Elections, inside two years | 34.9 | — | 2026-10-27 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WRATE | Rate — Economics, inside six months | 58.4 | — | 2026-10-27 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WRAT2 | Inverse Rate — Economics, inside six months | 41.6 | — | 2026-10-27 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WRAT3 | Rate — Economics, inside two months | 57.8 | — | 2026-10-27 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRAT4 | Rates — Economics, inside two months | 55.7 | — | 2026-10-27 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRELE | Released — Tech Science, inside six months | 64.7 | — | 2026-10-27 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WREPU | Republican — Elections, inside two weeks | 60.9 | — | 2026-10-27 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WREP2 | Republican — Elections, inside two years | 42.8 | — | 2026-10-27 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRESE | Reserve — Economics, inside six months | 57.4 | — | 2026-10-27 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WSCOR | Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 15.0 | — | 2026-10-27 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WSCO2 | Inverse Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 85.0 | — | 2026-10-27 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WSEA2 | Seats — Elections, inside two weeks | 50.5 | — | 2026-10-27 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WSENA | Senate — Elections, inside six months | 60.6 | — | 2026-10-27 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WTAYL | Taylor Swift — Culture, inside six months | 47.5 | — | 2026-10-27 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WTRUM | Trump — Politics, inside six months | 32.3 | — | 2026-10-27 | Low & climbing |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.