The Index Desk Report
Wednesday, November 4, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
23.7Low
81 / 148 live23 elevated27 calm
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 23.7 (Low), down 0.6.
Fell 0.9 to 23.7 (Low), led by geopolitical-risk (40% leg) (26→25%) −0.6 repricing; climate-risk (15% leg) (23→22%) −0.1 repricing.
The board: 81 of 148 benchmarks live — 23 elevated (≥60), 27 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Dec 2026) prices +19.7bps expected change (20% hold); cumulative +44.7bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Nov 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.85% (80% band 3.52–4.21%, n=21 strikes).
Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WELE2 47.7 (▲11.2) — Election — Politics, inside two months, up 11.2 on the day.
- WOPEN 40.1 (▲9.9) — Openai — Financials, inside six months, up 9.9 on the day.
- WMATH 45.3 (▲9.2) — Math — Tech Science, inside two months, up 9.2 on the day.
- WMEE3 47.6 (▼8.4) — Meeting — Economics, inside two years, down 8.4 on the day.
- WBANK 58.1 (▲7.6) — Bank — Economics, inside six months, up 7.6 on the day.
Projection watch
- WPITT projected 51.6 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending up.
- WPIT2 projected 48.4 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
- WSANF projected 64.9 in 14d (80% band 27–100), trending up.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | As of | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 24.5 | -1.4 | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 3.9 | -0.3 | 2026-11-04 | Very low & climbing |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 46.8 | 0.0 | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 50.9 | +0.7 | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 25.5 | +0.1 | 2026-11-04 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 29.8 | +2.2 | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 22.3 | -0.5 | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 50.9 | 0.0 | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 30.0 | — | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 20.9 | 0.0 | 2026-11-04 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 88.4 | 0.0 | 2026-11-04 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 71.9 | -0.7 | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & climbing |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 15.6 | — | 2026-11-04 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WELW | Election Week | 11.9 | — | 2026-11-04 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 28.9 | -0.8 | 2026-11-04 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 34.7 | -2.8 | 2026-11-04 | Low & climbing |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 36.0 | 0.0 | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 77.4 | -0.4 | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & steady |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 68.1 | 0.0 | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & cooling |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 25.0 | -0.5 | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 22.0 | -0.7 | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 37.8 | -0.8 | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 100.0 | 0.0 | 2026-11-04 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 53.4 | -0.1 | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 100.0 | 0.0 | 2026-11-03 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 87.8 | +6.4 | 2026-11-04 | Very high & climbing |
| WWRI | World Risk | 23.7 | -0.6 | 2026-11-04 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 18.5 | 0.0 | 2026-11-04 | Very low & climbing |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 33.7 | — | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WANTH | Anthropic — Financials, inside six months | 52.4 | -2.5 | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WARTI | Artist — Culture, inside six months | 31.8 | -1.3 | 2026-11-03 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WBANK | Bank — Economics, inside six months | 58.1 | +7.6 | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WCINC | Cincinnati Football, inside six months | 50.2 | — | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WCIN2 | Inverse Cincinnati Football, inside six months | 49.8 | — | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WDEMO | Democratic — Elections, inside two years | 43.4 | -2.8 | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WDENV | Denver Football, inside six months | 43.1 | — | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WDEN2 | Inverse Denver Football, inside six months | 56.9 | — | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WELEC | Election — Politics, inside six months | 64.1 | -0.8 | 2026-11-03 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WELE2 | Election — Politics, inside two months | 47.7 | +11.2 | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WFEDE | Federal — Economics, inside six months | 42.8 | +7.0 | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WGOO2 | Google — Tech Science, inside two months | 66.0 | -2.6 | 2026-11-03 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WHIKE | Hike — Economics, inside six months | 34.9 | -3.4 | 2026-11-03 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WHIK2 | Inverse Hike — Economics, inside six months | 65.1 | +3.4 | 2026-11-03 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WHOUS | House — Elections, inside two years | 43.7 | -1.6 | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WINCR | Increase — Economics, inside six months | 32.1 | -4.2 | 2026-11-03 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WINC2 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside six months | 67.9 | +4.2 | 2026-11-03 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WINC3 | Increase — Economics, inside two months | 39.7 | -1.6 | 2026-11-03 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WINC4 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside two months | 60.3 | +1.6 | 2026-11-03 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WINTE | Interest — Economics, inside six months | 77.5 | -3.0 | 2026-11-03 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WINT2 | Interest — Economics, inside two months | 69.7 | +3.5 | 2026-11-03 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WJACK | Jacksonville Football, inside six months | 40.4 | — | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WJAC2 | Inverse Jacksonville Football, inside six months | 59.6 | — | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WKANS | Kansas City Football, inside six months | 36.6 | — | 2026-11-03 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WKAN2 | Inverse Kansas City Football, inside six months | 63.4 | — | 2026-11-03 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WMATH | Math — Tech Science, inside two months | 45.3 | +9.2 | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WMEET | Meeting — Economics, inside six months | 68.1 | -5.0 | 2026-11-03 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WMEE2 | Meeting — Economics, inside two months | 68.7 | -0.1 | 2026-11-03 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WMEE3 | Meeting — Economics, inside two years | 47.6 | -8.4 | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WMIAM | Miami Football, inside six months | 28.3 | — | 2026-11-03 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WMIA2 | Inverse Miami Football, inside six months | 71.7 | — | 2026-11-03 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WOPEN | Openai — Financials, inside six months | 40.1 | +9.9 | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & climbing |
| WOPE2 | Openai — Financials, inside two years | 46.6 | +0.9 | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & steady |
| WPART | Party — Elections, inside six months | 40.3 | -4.8 | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WPHIL | Philadelphia Football, inside six months | 4.6 | +0.3 | 2026-11-03 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WPHI2 | Inverse Philadelphia Football, inside six months | 95.4 | -0.3 | 2026-11-03 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WPITT | Pittsburgh Football, inside six months | 47.6 | -0.5 | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WPIT2 | Inverse Pittsburgh Football, inside six months | 52.4 | +0.5 | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WPRES | President — Politics, inside six months | 61.7 | -2.7 | 2026-11-03 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WRAC2 | Race — Elections, inside two years | 42.3 | -6.0 | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WRATE | Rate — Economics, inside six months | 53.6 | 0.0 | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRAT2 | Inverse Rate — Economics, inside six months | 46.4 | 0.0 | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WRAT3 | Rate — Economics, inside two months | 59.5 | -2.0 | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WRAT4 | Rates — Economics, inside two months | 65.2 | -6.7 | 2026-11-03 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WREP2 | Republican — Elections, inside two years | 48.6 | -4.6 | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WRESE | Reserve — Economics, inside six months | 63.2 | +7.5 | 2026-11-03 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WSANF | San Francisco Football, inside six months | 61.2 | — | 2026-11-03 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WSAN2 | Inverse San Francisco Football, inside six months | 38.8 | — | 2026-11-03 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WSENA | Senate — Elections, inside six months | 55.3 | -0.4 | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WTRUM | Trump — Politics, inside six months | 36.8 | +2.5 | 2026-11-03 | Low & climbing |
| WWASH | Washington Football, inside six months | 42.8 | — | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WWAS2 | Inverse Washington Football, inside six months | 57.2 | — | 2026-11-03 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.