The Index Desk Report
Thursday, October 22, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
20.3Low
91 / 148 live20 elevated32 calm
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 20.3 (Low), down 0.1.
Published at 20.3 (Low), led by climate-risk (15% leg) (27→24%) −0.3 repricing; geopolitical-risk (40% leg) (25→26%) +0.2 repricing; recession-odds (25% leg) +0.1 repricing.
The board: 91 of 148 benchmarks live — 20 elevated (≥60), 32 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Oct 2026) prices +2.2bps expected change (89% hold); cumulative +47bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Nov 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.91% (80% band 3.54–4.39%, n=21 strikes).
Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WMID 48.4 (▼3.7) — Fell 3.7 to 48.4 (Moderate), led by 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House (64→68%) −1.6 repricing; Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after… (65→68%) −0.9 repricing, −0.2 reweight; Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? (64→72%) −0.5 repricing.
- WCGF 41.7 (▼2.3) — Fell 2.3 to 41.7 (Moderate), led by Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October? (39→23%) −1.1 repricing, +0.1 reweight; Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? (60→57%) −0.6 repricing, +0.1 reweight; Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? (23→20%) −0.4 repricing.
- WPTI 53.3 (▼2.3) — Fell 2.3 to 53.3 (Moderate), led by Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companie… (27→20%) −1.6 repricing; Will there be another US government shutdown by Jan… (91→93%) +0.2 repricing.
- WCDR 24.3 (▼2.2) — Fell 2.2 to 24.3 (Low), led by Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the… (8→6%) −0.8 repricing; Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the… (4→3%) −0.3 repricing; Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 202… (9→8%) −0.1 repricing.
- WNFL 73.9 (▼2.1) — Fell 2.1 to 73.9 (Elevated), led by Josh Allen — NFL MVP Winner (31→27%) −0.7 repricing; Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? (16→15%) −0.4 repricing; Will Josh Allen win the 2026 NFL MVP? (31→29%) −0.2 repricing.
Projection watch
- WRAC2 projected 24.5 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
- WGOO2 projected 70.3 in 14d (80% band 16–100), trending up.
- WINT2 projected 62.9 in 14d (80% band 37–89), trending up.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | As of | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 25.8 | +0.5 | 2026-10-22 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 1.4 | 0.0 | 2026-10-22 | Very low & cooling |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 42.8 | -1.7 | 2026-10-22 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 49.0 | +0.9 | 2026-10-22 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 15.2 | +0.2 | 2026-10-22 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 41.7 | -2.3 | 2026-10-22 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 24.3 | -2.2 | 2026-10-22 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 55.8 | -1.1 | 2026-10-22 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 53.3 | -2.3 | 2026-10-22 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 12.8 | 0.0 | 2026-10-22 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 82.8 | — | 2026-10-05 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 53.1 | +1.2 | 2026-10-22 | Moderate & cooling |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 48.4 | -3.7 | 2026-10-22 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WELW | Election Week | 7.0 | — | 2026-10-05 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 28.6 | +0.4 | 2026-10-22 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 26.9 | +0.1 | 2026-10-22 | Low & climbing |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 50.7 | -1.4 | 2026-10-22 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 78.0 | +1.0 | 2026-10-22 | Elevated & climbing |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 67.3 | — | 2026-10-05 | Elevated & cooling |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 17.2 | -1.1 | 2026-10-22 | Very low & cooling |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 23.9 | -0.6 | 2026-10-22 | Low & cooling |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 44.7 | -0.5 | 2026-10-22 | Moderate & climbing |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 78.1 | — | 2026-10-05 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 51.8 | — | 2026-10-05 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 97.0 | — | 2026-10-05 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 73.9 | -2.1 | 2026-10-22 | Elevated & climbing |
| WWRI | World Risk | 20.3 | -0.1 | 2026-10-22 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 10.9 | +0.1 | 2026-10-22 | Very low & cooling |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 43.3 | -1.4 | 2026-10-22 | Moderate & climbing |
| WACHI | Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 10.5 | — | 2026-10-21 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WACH2 | Inverse Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 89.5 | — | 2026-10-21 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WALBU | Album — Culture, inside six months | 58.6 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WANTH | Anthropic — Financials, inside six months | 39.6 | — | 2026-10-21 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WARTI | Artist — Culture, inside six months | 50.6 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WCAPT | Capture — Politics, inside six months | 32.9 | — | 2026-10-21 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCINC | Cincinnati Football, inside six months | 30.6 | — | 2026-10-21 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCIN2 | Inverse Cincinnati Football, inside six months | 69.4 | — | 2026-10-21 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WCODE | Code Arena — Tech Science, inside two months | 51.2 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WCOUN | Country — Politics, inside six months | 36.5 | — | 2026-10-21 | Low & steady |
| WDEMO | Democratic — Elections, inside two years | 33.7 | — | 2026-10-21 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WDENV | Denver Football, inside six months | 34.5 | — | 2026-10-21 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WDEN2 | Inverse Denver Football, inside six months | 65.5 | — | 2026-10-21 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WELEC | Election — Politics, inside six months | 54.1 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WELE2 | Election — Politics, inside two months | 64.6 | — | 2026-10-21 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WFEDE | Federal — Economics, inside six months | 31.4 | — | 2026-10-21 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WGOOG | Google — Tech Science, inside six months | 73.8 | — | 2026-10-21 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WGOO2 | Google — Tech Science, inside two months | 65.6 | — | 2026-10-21 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WHIGH | Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 11.2 | — | 2026-10-21 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WHIG2 | Inverse Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 88.8 | — | 2026-10-21 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WHIKE | Hike — Economics, inside six months | 34.0 | — | 2026-10-21 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WHIK2 | Inverse Hike — Economics, inside six months | 66.0 | — | 2026-10-21 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WHOUS | House — Elections, inside two years | 37.1 | — | 2026-10-21 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WINCR | Increase — Economics, inside six months | 41.9 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WINC2 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside six months | 58.1 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WINC3 | Increase — Economics, inside two months | 29.4 | — | 2026-10-21 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WINC4 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside two months | 70.6 | — | 2026-10-21 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WINT2 | Interest — Economics, inside two months | 59.0 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WJACK | Jacksonville Football, inside six months | 45.9 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WJAC2 | Inverse Jacksonville Football, inside six months | 54.1 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WKANS | Kansas City Football, inside six months | 47.4 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WKAN2 | Inverse Kansas City Football, inside six months | 52.6 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WMATH | Math — Tech Science, inside two months | 47.8 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WMEET | Meeting — Economics, inside six months | 51.5 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WMEE2 | Meeting — Economics, inside two months | 53.1 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WMEE3 | Meeting — Economics, inside two years | 38.5 | — | 2026-10-21 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WMIAM | Miami Football, inside six months | 8.9 | — | 2026-10-21 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WMIA2 | Inverse Miami Football, inside six months | 91.1 | — | 2026-10-21 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WOPEN | Openai — Financials, inside six months | 29.1 | — | 2026-10-21 | Low & cooling |
| WPART | Party — Elections, inside six months | 48.6 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WPHIL | Philadelphia Football, inside six months | 9.2 | — | 2026-10-21 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WPHI2 | Inverse Philadelphia Football, inside six months | 90.8 | — | 2026-10-21 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WPITT | Pittsburgh Football, inside six months | 48.2 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WPIT2 | Inverse Pittsburgh Football, inside six months | 51.8 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WPRES | President — Politics, inside six months | 52.8 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WRAC2 | Race — Elections, inside two years | 34.0 | — | 2026-10-21 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WRATE | Rate — Economics, inside six months | 59.0 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRAT2 | Inverse Rate — Economics, inside six months | 41.0 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WRAT3 | Rate — Economics, inside two months | 50.4 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRAT4 | Rates — Economics, inside two months | 56.7 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRELE | Released — Tech Science, inside six months | 66.5 | — | 2026-10-21 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WREPU | Republican — Elections, inside two weeks | 67.9 | — | 2026-10-21 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WREP2 | Republican — Elections, inside two years | 35.2 | — | 2026-10-21 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WRESE | Reserve — Economics, inside six months | 47.9 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WSANF | San Francisco Football, inside six months | 55.8 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WSAN2 | Inverse San Francisco Football, inside six months | 44.2 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WSCOR | Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 12.2 | — | 2026-10-21 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WSCO2 | Inverse Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 87.8 | — | 2026-10-21 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WTAYL | Taylor Swift — Culture, inside six months | 52.8 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WTRUM | Trump — Politics, inside six months | 30.5 | — | 2026-10-21 | Low & climbing |
| WWASH | Washington Football, inside six months | 40.2 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WWAS2 | Inverse Washington Football, inside six months | 59.8 | — | 2026-10-21 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.