Prediction Desk

Entertainment Prediction Market Odds & Probability (2026)

Across dated snapshots through September 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 74 open-status entertainment markets, with $59M in comparable USD-reported volume. This desk covers movies, tv, streaming, awards, box office. Below is every open-at-snapshot entertainment market W.E.T. tracks from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each price remains venue-attributed; numerical comparison is withheld without exact identity. Contract counts and mixed-unit totals are not added to the USD figure. These are dated observations, not continuous quotes, tips, or forecasts.

74

Open snapshots

$59M

Comparable volume

74

Priced snapshots

Closest calls — near a coin flip

Open-at-snapshot Entertainment marketscorpus through September 5, 2026

Billboard #1 Artist 2026 — Odds & Probability

Morgan Wallen · Polymarket · $224.2K vol

83%

Elon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026?

240-259 · Polymarket · $890.6K vol

27%

Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? — Odds

Yes · Polymarket · $309.6K vol

30%

Next James Bond actor? — Odds & Probability

No Bond chosen · Polymarket · $630.6K vol

26%

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations — Odds & Probability

Matt Damon · Polymarket · $28.2K vol

94%

Oscars 2027: Best Animated Feature Film Winner — Odds

Wildwood · Polymarket · $21.2K vol

49%

Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Feature Film Winner — Odds

American Doctor · Polymarket · $18K vol

37%

Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner — Odds

Wild Horse Nine · Polymarket · $26.1K vol

39%

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Winner — Odds

Paul Giamatti · Polymarket · $13.1K vol

30%

Top Spotify Artist 2026 — Odds & Probability

Bad Bunny · Polymarket · $1.6M vol

88%

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? — Odds

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? · Polymarket · $352.4K vol

30%

Elon Musk # tweets August 28 - September 4, 2026? — Odds

200-219 · Polymarket · $2.7M vol

55%

Highest grossing movie in 2026? — Odds & Probability

Spider-Man: Brand New Day · Polymarket · $17.3M vol

94%

Oscars 2027: Best International Feature Film Winner

The Black Ball · Polymarket · $13K vol

65%

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner — Odds & Probability

The Odyssey · Polymarket · $136.5K vol

54%

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Winner — Odds

Anne Hathaway · Polymarket · $15.5K vol

36%

Weed rescheduled by...? — Odds & Probability

December 31 · Polymarket · $802.3K vol

23%

When will Beyonce release new album? — Odds

Before Jan 1, 2028 · Kalshi · 12K contracts vol

85%

When will Elder Scrolls VI be released? — Odds

Before 2028 · Kalshi · 35.7K contracts vol

14%

Taylor Swift pregnant by...? — Odds & Probability

December 31, 2026 · Polymarket · $2M vol

11%

Which artists will release new albums in 2026? — Odds

Lana Del Rey · Polymarket · $221.4K vol

70%

Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026? — Odds

Avengers: Doomsday · Polymarket · $2.1M vol

56%

"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by

940 - 950m · Polymarket · $90.1K vol

64%

Big Brother Season 28 Winner — Odds & Probability

Yash Patel · Polymarket · $125.4K vol

23%

Big Brother Season 28: 2nd Place — Odds & Probability

Angela Murray · Polymarket · $43K vol

37%

Big Brother Season 28: 3rd Place — Odds & Probability

Angela Murray · Polymarket · $71.9K vol

14%

Carly Rae Jepsen 'Day and Night' First Week Album Sales?

<30k · Polymarket · $40.5K vol

63%

Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series — Odds

“Widow’s Bay” · Polymarket · $81.2K vol

60%

Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series

Rob Reiner – “The Bear” · Polymarket · $42K vol

41%

Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series

Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” · Polymarket · $72.5K vol

39%

Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series

Betty Gilpin – “Widow’s Bay” · Polymarket · $67.4K vol

38%

Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or

Oscar Isaac – “Beef” · Polymarket · $56.4K vol

66%

Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or

Carey Mulligan – “Beef” · Polymarket · $49.6K vol

42%

Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy

Harrison Ford – “Shrinking” · Polymarket · $39.4K vol

45%

Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a drama

Katherine LaNasa – “The Pitt” · Polymarket · $55.9K vol

70%

Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a limited

Linda Cardellini – “DTF St. Louis” · Polymarket · $41K vol

79%

Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series — Odds

“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” · Polymarket · $94.4K vol

79%

Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live) — Odds

Yes · Polymarket · $60.3K vol

91%

GTA VI released by...? — Odds & Probability

November 30 · Polymarket · $75.4K vol

94%

How many Emmys will “Beef” win? — Odds & Probability

2-3 · Polymarket · $51.2K vol

55%

How many Emmys will “Hacks” win? — Odds & Probability

2-3 · Polymarket · $108.4K vol

61%

How many Emmys will “The Pitt” win? — Odds & Probability

2-3 · Polymarket · $46.9K vol

45%

How many Emmys will “Widow's Bay” win? — Odds

4-5 · Polymarket · $42.1K vol

45%

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner — Odds & Probability

Matt Damon · Polymarket · $104.5K vol

27%

Oscars 2027: Best Visual Effects Winner — Odds

Dune: Part Three · Polymarket · $18.8K vol

54%

The Game Awards: Best Independent Game — Odds

Mina the Hollower · Polymarket · $40.4K vol

35%

TIME Person of the Year 2026 — Odds & Probability

Zohran Mamdani · Polymarket · $41.4K vol

34%

Top Spotify Album 2026 — Odds & Probability

Debí Tirar Más Fotos · Polymarket · $63.4K vol

77%

Top Spotify Song 2026 — Odds & Probability

End of Beginning – Djo · Polymarket · $112.9K vol

62%

Top US Spotify Artist 2026 — Odds & Probability

Drake · Polymarket · $119K vol

80%

Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?

Mariah Carey · Polymarket · $167.2K vol

79%

Which streaming service will win the most Emmys? — Odds

HBO Max · Polymarket · $74.3K vol

73%

Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their

Yes · Polymarket · $53.1K vol

5%

How many Emmys will “DTF St. Louis” win? — Odds

0-1 · Polymarket · $133.4K vol

99%

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 — Odds & Probability

Yulia Navalnaya · Polymarket · $23.7M vol

8%

Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner — Odds & Probability

Julianne Moore · Polymarket · $106.2K vol

27%

Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner — Odds

The Black Ball · Polymarket · $19.2K vol

27%

Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Winner — Odds

The Odyssey · Polymarket · $21K vol

61%

Oscars 2027: Best Original Score Winner — Odds

The Odyssey · Polymarket · $20K vol

41%

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations — Odds

The Odyssey · Polymarket · $19.6K vol

97%

The Last of Us S3: Release date — Odds & Probability

Before Jan 2028 · Kalshi · 36.5K contracts vol

80%

When will the official trailer for Spider-Man: Beyond

Before Apr 1, 2027 · Kalshi · 10.8K contracts vol

87%

Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?

Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool · Polymarket · $138.5K vol

94%

Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the

The Odyssey · Polymarket · $127.9K vol

87%

Bachelorette Season 22 Winner — Odds & Probability

Other (Season Cancelled) · Polymarket · $2.5M vol

90%

Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a drama series

Shailene Woodley – “Paradise” · Polymarket · $31.1K vol

51%

How many Emmys will “Pluribus” win? — Odds & Probability

2-3 · Polymarket · $30.2K vol

67%

Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? — Odds

Yes · Polymarket · $115.3K vol

18%

Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series

Jean Smart – “Hacks” · Polymarket · $28.2K vol

91%

Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a drama

Tom Pelphrey – “Task” · Polymarket · $34.7K vol

42%

The Game Awards: Best Mobile Game — Odds & Probability

Arknights: Endfield · Polymarket · $31.1K vol

41%

Oscars 2027: Best Casting Winner — Odds & Probability

The Odyssey · Polymarket · $8.9K vol

54%

# of in-game deaths during Kai and Speed Minecraft

30-49 · Polymarket · $394.7K vol

99%

Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner — Odds & Probability

Christopher Nolan · Polymarket · $6K vol

66%

Recently settled

Final pre-close reads, frozen as archives — browse the full settled markets archive.

Priced into these indexes

W.E.T. indexes that hold markets from the entertainment board. The count is how many of this page’s contracts each one actually reads — the index is the story, these markets are its evidence.

Frequently asked questions

What does W.E.T.'s latest entertainment market snapshot record?

Across dated snapshots through September 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 74 entertainment markets with an open status from Kalshi and Polymarket, with $59M in comparable USD-reported volume. Contract counts and mixed-unit event totals are excluded. Each snapshot shows implied probability — the captured market price read as a percentage — for real events, such as "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 — Odds & Probability". These are dated observations, not forecasts or continuously updated quotes.

Which entertainment market has the largest comparable USD-reported volume?

Among open-status snapshots through September 5, 2026, "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 — Odds & Probability" has the largest comparable USD-reported volume. Its captured read records a 8% implied probability for Yulia Navalnaya on Polymarket, on $23.7M in volume.

Are these entertainment odds a prediction of what will happen?

No. These are dated prediction-market prices shown as implied probability — captured observations, not current quotes, advice, or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.

W.E.T. content is informational and educational only — nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, and none of it is a prediction of the outcome. Verify current prices, rules, and availability directly on the relevant platform. See our full disclaimer.