The Game Awards: Best Mobile Game — Odds & Probability
By Corbin V King · Updated August 26, 2026
As of August 26, 2026, the prediction market implies a 41% chance of Arknights: Endfield on Polymarket, with $31.1K in venue-reported volume.
Implied probability snapshot
Market favorite
Arknights: Endfield — market favorite
Polymarket · $31.1K reported volume
41%
Implied
Venue listing
View the live market on Polymarket
This W.E.T. observation is dated. Open Polymarket to verify later availability and price changes.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →The slate at this observation
Ceremony
The Game Awards
2 categories priced
Still contested
1
inside 15 points
Tightest
+10
Best Independent Game
Best Independent Game
Contested- Mina the Hollower35%
- Mewgenics25%
- Big Walk14%
- Meccha Chameleon4%
- Phonopolis4%
- Mouse: P.I. For Hire3%
+10 pt margin · 24 nominees · 18 more
Best Mobile Game
Clear favourite- Arknights: Endfield41%
- Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Mobile11%
- NTE: Neverness to Everness8%
- Valorant Mobile7%
- Monster Hunter Outlanders7%
- Wuthering Waves5%
+30 pt margin · 12 nominees · 6 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Odds — dated market snapshotas of August 26, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Arknights: Endfield | Polymarket | 41% | $23.7K |
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Mobile | Polymarket | 11% | $1.1K |
NTE: Neverness to Everness | Polymarket | 8% | $2.9K |
Valorant Mobile | Polymarket | 7% | $848 |
Monster Hunter Outlanders | Polymarket | 7% | $803 |
Wuthering Waves | Polymarket | 5% | $370 |
The Seven Deadly Sins: Origin | Polymarket | 1% | $544 |
Honkai: Nexus Anima | Polymarket | 1% | $184 |
Azur Promilia | Polymarket | 1% | $176 |
Sea of Remnants | Polymarket | 1% | $166 |
The Division Resurgence | Polymarket | 1% | $166 |
Digimon Up | Polymarket | 1% | $166 |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the August 26, 2026 snapshot · 38/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 15/30 | $31.1K in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 12 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
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Key takeaways
- Prediction markets price Arknights: Endfield at 41% implied probability on Polymarket.
- The attributed event snapshot reports $31.1K in venue-native volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Wednesday, August 26 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices The Game Awards: Best Mobile Game at 41% implied probability on Polymarket as of Wednesday, August 26. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
The attributed event snapshot reports $31.1K in venue-native volume. Arknights: Endfield leads at 41%, a slight edge, ahead of Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Mobile at 11%. It currently trades on Polymarket; a related listing on another venue remains separate until exact identity is confirmed.
How entertainment markets like this resolve
Entertainment markets resolve on a public result — an awards outcome, a box-office figure, a release. The price is what traders pay for each result before it’s known.
What could move it
Nominations, review embargoes and early tracking, release schedules, and audience buzz drive the moves. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 41% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 41¢ implies a 41% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Wednesday, August 26; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for The Game Awards: Best Mobile Game?
As of Wednesday, August 26, Polymarket price Arknights: Endfield at 41% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Arknights: Endfield?
The prediction market implies a 41% chance of Arknights: Endfield on Polymarket as of Wednesday, August 26 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. This dated snapshot records Polymarket only. W.E.T. publishes no cross-venue comparison without the same event, outcome, and resolution terms observed on another venue.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a reflection of what traders are collectively paying, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
Are Prediction Markets Accurate? Evidence vs. Polls
A balanced look at prediction market accuracy: why traded odds often beat polls, what IEM research shows, and the failure modes that distort prices.
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/the-game-awards-best-mobile-game-odds-2026-12-10?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=the-game-awards-best-mobile-game-odds-2026-12-10">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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