Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?
By Corbin V King · Updated November 14, 2026
As of November 14, 2026, the prediction market implies a 85% chance of Mariah Carey on Polymarket, with $207.7K in venue-reported volume.
▼ 95% → 85%since November 1, 2026
Implied probability snapshot
Market favorite
Mariah Carey — market favorite
Polymarket · $207.7K reported volume
85%
Implied
Venue listing
View the live market on Polymarket
This W.E.T. observation is dated. Open Polymarket to verify later availability and price changes.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →Odds — dated market snapshotas of November 14, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Mariah Carey | Polymarket | 85% | $7.5K |
Peso Pluma | Polymarket | 35% | $522 |
Ed Sheeran | Polymarket | 19% | $1K |
Travis Scott | Polymarket | 16% | $7.3K |
Post Malone | Polymarket | 15% | $3.8K |
Morgan Wallen | Polymarket | 13% | $3.5K |
Future | Polymarket | 10% | $8K |
Kendrick Lamar | Polymarket | 10% | $6.7K |
The Weeknd | Polymarket | 9% | $7.1K |
Tyler, The Creator | Polymarket | 9% | $1.1K |
Lil Baby | Polymarket | 7% | $1.7K |
Playboi Carti | Polymarket | 5% | $10K |
Frank Ocean | Polymarket | 5% | $9.7K |
Luke Combs | Polymarket | 5% | $4.6K |
Sabrina Carpenter | Polymarket | 5% | $4.2K |
Rihanna | Polymarket | 5% | $3.2K |
SZA | Polymarket | 4% | $4.3K |
Jack Harlow | Polymarket | 3% | $11.4K |
A$AP Rocky | Polymarket | 3% | $3.3K |
Billie Eilish | Polymarket | 2% | $42.9K |
Doja Cat | Polymarket | 2% | $12.5K |
Zach Bryan | Polymarket | 2% | $1.9K |
Kanye West | Polymarket | 2% | $866 |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence is keyed on the first 16 of 23 keyable listings on this snapshot (the route's per-request cap); the rest were not read.
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the November 14, 2026 snapshot · 55/100 · Solid Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 23/30 | $207.7K in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 23 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 9/15 | 6 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
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Key takeaways
- One tracked Polymarket listing prices Mariah Carey at 85% implied probability.
- Polymarket reports $208K in venue-native event volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Saturday, November 14 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year? at 85% implied probability on Polymarket as of Saturday, November 14. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 23 tracked market rows, Polymarket reports $208K in venue-native event volume. Mariah Carey leads at 85%, a strong favorite, ahead of Peso Pluma at 35%. It currently trades on Polymarket; any related listing on another venue remains separate until identity is confirmed.
How entertainment markets like this resolve
Entertainment markets resolve on a public result — an awards outcome, a box-office figure, a release. The price is what traders pay for each result before it’s known.
What could move it
Nominations, review embargoes and early tracking, release schedules, and audience buzz drive the moves. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 85% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 85¢ implies a 85% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Saturday, November 14; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Entertainment market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Entertainment odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?
As of Saturday, November 14, Polymarket price Mariah Carey at 85% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Mariah Carey?
The prediction market implies a 85% chance of Mariah Carey on Polymarket as of Saturday, November 14 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. A second venue listing is shown separately until W.E.T. confirms same-outcome equivalence.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Should You Use?
A market-native comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket: regulation, funding rails, coverage, fees, liquidity, settlement, and which platform fits your trading.
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