Prediction Desk
Politics Prediction Market Odds & Probability (2026)
Across dated snapshots through November 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 29 open-status politics markets, with $13.9M in comparable USD-reported volume. This desk covers us and global political markets, elections, policy outcomes. Below is every open-at-snapshot politics market W.E.T. tracks from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each price remains venue-attributed; numerical comparison is withheld without exact identity. Contract counts and mixed-unit totals are not added to the USD figure. These are dated observations, not continuous quotes, tips, or forecasts.
29
Open snapshots
$13.9M
Comparable volume
29
Priced snapshots
Closest calls — near a coin flip
Open-at-snapshot Politics marketscorpus through November 5, 2026
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? — Odds
Pete Hegseth · Polymarket · $1.5M vol
Will Zohran Mamdani announce his departure as Mayor of
Before Jan 1, 2030 · Kalshi · 18.6K contracts vol
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term
Yes · Polymarket · $1.8M vol
Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?
Before Jan 1, 2030 · Kalshi · 306.7K contracts vol
Will Section IV of the 25th Amendment be used during
Before Jan 20, 2029 · Kalshi · 196.8K contracts vol
Will the US acquire any new territory? — Odds
Before Jan 21, 2029 · Kalshi · 379.7K contracts vol
Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?
Before January 21, 2029 · Kalshi · 3.5M contracts vol
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland? — Odds
Before January 20, 2029 · Kalshi · 5.2M contracts vol
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? — Odds
Before Jan 1, 2028 · Kalshi · 617.2K contracts vol
Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Odds & Probability
Before Jan 20, 2029 · Kalshi · 256.7K contracts vol
Will the Onion Futures Act be repealed? — Odds
Before 2030 · Kalshi · 195.3K contracts vol
Will Trump impose martial law? — Odds & Probability
Before Jan 20, 2029 · Kalshi · 96.7K contracts vol
Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
On Nov 16, 2026 · Kalshi · 64.9K contracts vol
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $6.8M vol
Will a cabinet member be impeached? — Odds & Probability
Before Jan 20, 2029 · Kalshi · 111.6K contracts vol
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? — Odds
Before Jan 1, 2028 · Kalshi · 604.3K contracts vol
Will Trump recognize Taiwan? — Odds & Probability
Before Jan 20, 2029 · Kalshi · 38.7K contracts vol
Will Congress override Trump's veto? — Odds
Before Jan 20, 2029 · Kalshi · 31.2K contracts vol
Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair? — Odds & Probability
Before Jan 1, 2031 · Kalshi · 8.2K contracts vol
When will CMS announce the addition of GLP-1 drugs for
Before Jan 1, 2028 · Kalshi · 20.5K contracts vol
When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of
Before Aug 1, 2027 · Kalshi · 14.8K contracts vol
When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law? — Odds
Before Jan 1, 2028 · Kalshi · 15K contracts vol
When will Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin meet together?
Before Jan 20, 2029 · Kalshi · 13.2K contracts vol
Will Trump recognize Somaliland? — Odds & Probability
Before Jan 20, 2029 · Kalshi · 31.4K contracts vol
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term
Yes · Polymarket · $1.7M vol
When will Kari Lake be confirmed as Ambassador to
Before Apr 1, 2027 · Kalshi · 37.9K contracts vol
Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal
On Nov 13, 2026 · Kalshi · 13.4K contracts vol
Who will be arrested before 2027? — Odds & Probability
Mahmoud Khalil · Polymarket · $396.6K vol
Kash Patel out by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.7M vol
Recently settled
Final pre-close reads, frozen as archives — browse the full settled markets archive.
Priced into these indexes
W.E.T. indexes that hold markets from the politics board. The count is how many of this page’s contracts each one actually reads — the index is the story, these markets are its evidence.
Frequently asked questions
What does W.E.T.'s latest politics market snapshot record?
Across dated snapshots through November 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 29 politics markets with an open status from Kalshi and Polymarket, with $13.9M in comparable USD-reported volume. Contract counts and mixed-unit event totals are excluded. Each snapshot shows implied probability — the captured market price read as a percentage — for real events, such as "María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...? — Odds". These are dated observations, not forecasts or continuously updated quotes.
Which politics market has the largest comparable USD-reported volume?
Among open-status snapshots through November 5, 2026, "María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...? — Odds" has the largest comparable USD-reported volume. Its captured read records a 26% implied probability for December 31 on Polymarket, on $6.8M in volume.
Are these politics odds a prediction of what will happen?
No. These are dated prediction-market prices shown as implied probability — captured observations, not current quotes, advice, or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
W.E.T. content is informational and educational only — nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, and none of it is a prediction of the outcome. Verify current prices, rules, and availability directly on the relevant platform. See our full disclaimer.