Prediction Desk
World Prediction Market Odds & Probability (2026)
Across dated snapshots through November 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 105 open-status world markets, with $878.7M in comparable USD-reported volume. This desk covers international relations, conflicts, global events. Below is every open-at-snapshot world market W.E.T. tracks from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each price remains venue-attributed; numerical comparison is withheld without exact identity. Contract counts and mixed-unit totals are not added to the USD figure. These are dated observations, not continuous quotes, tips, or forecasts.
105
Open snapshots
$878.7M
Comparable volume
94
Priced snapshots
Closest calls — near a coin flip
Open-at-snapshot World marketscorpus through November 5, 2026
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? — Odds
Yes · Polymarket · $3.5M vol
Cuban regime falls in 2026? — Odds & Probability
Cuban regime falls in 2026? · Polymarket · $1.9M vol
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027 · Polymarket · $3.1M vol
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Yes · Polymarket · $2.1M vol
Iran coup attempt by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31, 2027 · Polymarket · $2.4M vol
Iran full airspace closure by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $11M vol
Iran leader end of 2026? — Odds & Probability
Mojtaba Khamenei · Polymarket · $40.8M vol
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...? — Odds
December 31, 2027 · Polymarket · $8.6M vol
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? — Odds
November 3 · Polymarket · $45.6M vol
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $2.3M vol
Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
December 31 · Polymarket · $2.1M vol
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $7.6M vol
Next leader out of power before 2027? — Odds
None before 2027 · Polymarket · $2.4M vol
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? — Odds
December 31, 2026 · Polymarket · $1.4M vol
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Yes · Polymarket · $1.4M vol
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31, 2027 · Polymarket · $3.3M vol
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by...? — Odds
December 31, 2027 · Polymarket · $2.9M vol
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $29.8M vol
US strike on Colombia by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $2.3M vol
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? — Odds
October 31 · Polymarket · $40.7M vol
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $21.1M vol
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...? — Odds
November 30 · Polymarket · $2.6M vol
Venezuela leader end of 2026? — Odds & Probability
Nicolás Maduro · Polymarket · $99.5M vol
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? — Odds
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) · Polymarket · $1.5M vol
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? — Odds
China · Polymarket · $2.3M vol
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027 · Polymarket · $4.1M vol
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? — Odds
Druzkhivka · Polymarket · $1.8M vol
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by
Kazem Gharibabadi · Polymarket · $2.1M vol
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $22.4M vol
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? — Odds
Yes · Polymarket · $29.4M vol
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? — Odds & Probability
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Polymarket · $3.7M vol
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — Odds
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Polymarket · $77.9M vol
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 · Polymarket · $18.5M vol
Netanyahu out by...? — Odds & Probability
June 30, 2027 · Polymarket · $125.2M vol
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $2.3M vol
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? — Odds
Yes · Polymarket · $2.9M vol
US military action against Cuba by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $7.7M vol
Who will Trump meet with in 2026? — Odds & Probability
Mohammed bin Salman · Polymarket · $1.4M vol
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? — Odds
June 30, 2027 · Polymarket · $2.2M vol
China x Japan military clash before 2027? — Odds
Yes · Polymarket · $1.5M vol
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.2M vol
France declares state of emergency by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $2.7M vol
Iran Nuke before 2027? — Odds & Probability
Iran Nuke before 2027? · Polymarket · $1.6M vol
NATO x Russia military clash by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $13.2M vol
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? — Odds
Yes · Polymarket · $1.9M vol
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...? — Odds
December 31, 2026 · Polymarket · $5.6M vol
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? — Odds
Yes · Polymarket · $11M vol
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $7.9M vol
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Yes · Polymarket · $3.8M vol
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Venezuela · Polymarket · $968.7K vol
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland · Polymarket · $1.8M vol
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Xi Jinping out before 2027? — Odds & Probability
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · Polymarket · $17M vol
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
4 · Polymarket · $7.8M vol
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31, 2026 · Polymarket · $3.9M vol
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...? — Odds
January 31, 2027 · Polymarket · $922.3K vol
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution?
Before Jan 1, 2028 · Kalshi · 62.5K contracts vol
Will Russia capture Lyman by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $3.1M vol
India strike on Pakistan by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31, 2026 · Polymarket · $1M vol
Macron out by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31, 2026 · Polymarket · $2.2M vol
Iran invades Kuwait by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Romanian PM Bolojan out by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $882.1K vol
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $2.9M vol
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 — Odds & Probability
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 · Polymarket · $847.2K vol
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $2.1M vol
US strike on Mexico by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $3.5M vol
Ukraine election called by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31, 2026 · Polymarket · $1.9M vol
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? — Odds
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Polymarket · $45.7M vol
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
December 31, 2026 · Polymarket · $861.8K vol
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $4.1M vol
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.2M vol
How many different countries will the US conduct
8 · Polymarket · $1.7M vol
Russia nuclear test by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31, 2026 · Polymarket · $6.2M vol
Will Hezbollah disarm by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $3.1M vol
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $986.4K vol
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the
Yes · Polymarket · $293K vol
Will Xi Jinping visit US by...? — Odds & Probability
September 30 · Polymarket · $2.4M vol
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Yes · Polymarket · $1.3M vol
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? — Odds
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Polymarket · $42.3M vol
LCK 2026 Season Winner — Odds & Probability
Gen.G Esports · Polymarket · $3.7M vol
LPL 2026 Season Winner — Odds & Probability
Bilibili Gaming · Polymarket · $2.5M vol
Israel and Syria normalize relations by...? — Odds
December 31, 2026 · Polymarket · $2.1M vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.2M vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.2M vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.2M vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1M vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1M vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
Recently settled
Final pre-close reads, frozen as archives — browse the full settled markets archive.
Priced into these indexes
W.E.T. indexes that hold markets from the world board. The count is how many of this page’s contracts each one actually reads — the index is the story, these markets are its evidence.
Frequently asked questions
What does W.E.T.'s latest world market snapshot record?
Across dated snapshots through November 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 105 world markets with an open status from Kalshi and Polymarket, with $878.7M in comparable USD-reported volume. Contract counts and mixed-unit event totals are excluded. Each snapshot shows implied probability — the captured market price read as a percentage — for real events, such as "Netanyahu out by...? — Odds & Probability". These are dated observations, not forecasts or continuously updated quotes.
Which world market has the largest comparable USD-reported volume?
Among open-status snapshots through November 5, 2026, "Netanyahu out by...? — Odds & Probability" has the largest comparable USD-reported volume. Its captured read records a 46% implied probability for June 30, 2027 on Polymarket, on $125.2M in volume.
Are these world odds a prediction of what will happen?
No. These are dated prediction-market prices shown as implied probability — captured observations, not current quotes, advice, or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
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