Prediction Desk
World Prediction Market Odds & Probability (2026)
Across dated snapshots through September 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 101 open-status world markets, with $878.1M in comparable USD-reported volume. This desk covers international relations, conflicts, global events. Below is every open-at-snapshot world market W.E.T. tracks from Polymarket. Each price remains venue-attributed; numerical comparison is withheld without exact identity. Contract counts and mixed-unit totals are not added to the USD figure. These are dated observations, not continuous quotes, tips, or forecasts.
101
Open snapshots
$878.1M
Comparable volume
89
Priced snapshots
Closest calls — near a coin flip
Open-at-snapshot World marketscorpus through September 5, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election — Odds & Probability
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Polymarket · $143.7M vol
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Augusto Cury · Polymarket · $1M vol
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 · Polymarket · $17.9M vol
Iran full airspace closure by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $9.3M vol
Iran leader end of 2026? — Odds & Probability
Mojtaba Khamenei · Polymarket · $39.2M vol
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? — Odds
October 31 · Polymarket · $1.5M vol
Israel and Syria normalize relations by...? — Odds
December 31, 2026 · Polymarket · $2.1M vol
Israel closes its airspace by...? — Odds & Probability
September 30 · Polymarket · $28.5M vol
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $8.4M vol
LCK 2026 Season Winner — Odds & Probability
Hanwha Life Esports · Polymarket · $3.6M vol
Netanyahu out by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $124.1M vol
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.6M vol
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $29.2M vol
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? — Odds & Probability
September 30 · Polymarket · $1M vol
Venezuela leader end of 2026? — Odds & Probability
Nicolás Maduro · Polymarket · $96M vol
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks
No Meeting by September 30 · Polymarket · $5.5M vol
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027 · Polymarket · $3.3M vol
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.6M vol
Will Russia capture Lyman by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $3M vol
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? — Odds
Yes · Polymarket · $25.6M vol
Xi Jinping out before 2027? — Odds & Probability
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · Polymarket · $13M vol
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $28.5M vol
NATO x Russia military clash by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $6.7M vol
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? — Odds
Yes · Polymarket · $2.7M vol
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $25.6M vol
US military action against Cuba by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $7.4M vol
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $17.1M vol
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Lebanon · Polymarket · $1.6M vol
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $21.8M vol
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — Odds
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Polymarket · $64.8M vol
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? — Odds
Yes · Polymarket · $3.3M vol
Cuban regime falls in 2026? — Odds & Probability
Cuban regime falls in 2026? · Polymarket · $1.7M vol
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
4 · Polymarket · $7.4M vol
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31 · Polymarket · $72.7M vol
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $2.2M vol
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $7.1M vol
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31, 2026 · Polymarket · $3.7M vol
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? — Odds
Yes · Polymarket · $10.6M vol
Israel military action against Beirut by...? — Odds
October 31 · Polymarket · $352.1K vol
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $273.1K vol
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 — Odds & Probability
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 · Polymarket · $764K vol
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Yes · Polymarket · $382.5K vol
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
October 31 · Polymarket · $56.7K vol
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the
Yes · Polymarket · $206.6K vol
Will Iran target Jordan by...? — Odds & Probability
September 15 · Polymarket · $40.8K vol
Will Iran target Qatar by...? — Odds & Probability
September 30 · Polymarket · $115.2K vol
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $62.5K vol
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $123.2K vol
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Yes · Polymarket · $3.1M vol
Israel military action against Beirut by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $326.6K vol
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $454.6K vol
Will Iran target Ukraine by...? — Odds & Probability
September 30 · Polymarket · $494.2K vol
LPL 2026 Season Winner — Odds & Probability
Bilibili Gaming · Polymarket · $2.4M vol
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
September 30 · Polymarket · $156.6K vol
Iran invades Kuwait by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $1M vol
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $1.3M vol
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $102.9K vol
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks
No Meeting by September 30 · Polymarket · $5.3M vol
Who will Trump meet with in September 2026? — Odds
Xi Jinping · Polymarket · $42.6K vol
Will Russia capture Shevchenko by...? — Odds
October 31 · Polymarket · $53.6K vol
Will Russia capture Svitle by...? — Odds & Probability
October 31 · Polymarket · $57.8K vol
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...? — Odds
September 15 · Polymarket · $43K vol
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $146.9K vol
Will Iran target Oman by...? — Odds & Probability
September 30 · Polymarket · $28.5K vol
Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...? — Odds
October 31 · Polymarket · $133.6K vol
Will Russia capture Toretske by...? — Odds & Probability
October 31 · Polymarket · $153.5K vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.2M vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.2M vol
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $117.4K vol
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $138.1K vol
Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $93.2K vol
Will Russia capture Stavky by...? — Odds & Probability
September 30 · Polymarket · $123.9K vol
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...? — Odds & Probability
September 30 · Polymarket · $142.3K vol
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $86.4K vol
Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...? — Odds
October 31 · Polymarket · $120.8K vol
Will Russia enter Borova by...? — Odds & Probability
September 30 · Polymarket · $288.3K vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.2M vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep
Yes · Polymarket · $158.8K vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1M vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
December 31 · Polymarket · $1M vol
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by...? — Odds & Probability
September 30 · Polymarket · $393.5K vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...? — Odds
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River
Recently settled
Final pre-close reads, frozen as archives — browse the full settled markets archive.
Priced into these indexes
W.E.T. indexes that hold markets from the world board. The count is how many of this page’s contracts each one actually reads — the index is the story, these markets are its evidence.
Frequently asked questions
What does W.E.T.'s latest world market snapshot record?
Across dated snapshots through September 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 101 world markets with an open status from Polymarket, with $878.1M in comparable USD-reported volume. Contract counts and mixed-unit event totals are excluded. Each snapshot shows implied probability — the captured market price read as a percentage — for real events, such as "Brazil Presidential Election — Odds & Probability". These are dated observations, not forecasts or continuously updated quotes.
Which world market has the largest comparable USD-reported volume?
Among open-status snapshots through September 5, 2026, "Brazil Presidential Election — Odds & Probability" has the largest comparable USD-reported volume. Its captured read records a 56% implied probability for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Polymarket, on $143.7M in volume.
Are these world odds a prediction of what will happen?
No. These are dated prediction-market prices shown as implied probability — captured observations, not current quotes, advice, or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
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