Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner — Odds
By Corbin V King · Updated September 22, 2026
As of September 22, 2026, the prediction market implies a 41% chance of Wild Horse Nine on Polymarket, with $39.3K in venue-reported volume.
This market is a constituent of theAwards Race— the published W.E.T. index it helps price.
Implied probability snapshot
Market favorite
Wild Horse Nine — market favorite
Polymarket · $39.3K reported volume
41%
Implied
Venue listing
View the live market on Polymarket
This W.E.T. observation is dated. Open Polymarket to verify later availability and price changes.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →The slate at this observation
Ceremony
Oscars 2027
13 categories priced
Still contested
3
inside 15 points
Tightest
+7
Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
Contested- The Black Ball35%
- The Invite28%
- The Odyssey19%
- The Adventures of Cliff Booth7%
- All of a Sudden6%
- Wildwood6%
+7 pt margin · 15 nominees · 9 more
Best Picture Winner
Contested- The Odyssey45%
- La Bola Negra35%
- Dune: Part Three12%
- Digger5%
- Wild Horse Nine2%
- The Debut2%
+10 pt margin · 22 nominees · 16 more
Best Original Screenplay Winner
Contested- Wild Horse Nine41%
- The Debut29%
- Obsession8%
- Fjord7%
- Digger6%
- Elsinore6%
+12 pt margin · 17 nominees · 11 more
Best Actor Winner
Clear favourite- John Malkovich40%
- Matt Damon25%
- Andrew Scott16%
- Tom Cruise12%
- Robert Pattinson3%
- Sebastian Stan2%
+15 pt margin · 18 nominees · 12 more
Best Animated Feature Film Winner
Clear favourite- Wildwood54%
- Toy Story 527%
- Tangles10%
- Ray Gunn7%
- Forgotten Island6%
- Hoppers4%
+27 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Best Supporting Actor Winner
Clear favourite- Paul Giamatti48%
- Robert Pattinson20%
- Sam Rockwell19%
- Edward Norton8%
- Guy Pearce7%
- Miles Teller7%
+28 pt margin · 22 nominees · 16 more
Best Visual Effects Winner
Clear favourite- Dune: Part Three55%
- Project Hail Mary26%
- The Odyssey11%
- Godzilla Minus Zero10%
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day4%
- Avengers: Doomsday3%
+29 pt margin · 6 nominees
Best Director Winner
Clear favourite- Christopher Nolan52%
- Denis Villeneuve22%
- Alejandro G. Iñárritu6%
- Martin McDonagh6%
- Phil Lord or Christopher Miller6%
- Jesse Eisenberg5%
+30 pt margin · 14 nominees · 8 more
Best Original Score Winner
Clear favourite- The Odyssey46%
- Dune: Part Three16%
- The Black Ball11%
- Project Hail Mary7%
- Disclosure Day7%
- The Adventures of Cliff Booth3%
+30 pt margin · 12 nominees · 6 more
Best Cinematography Winner
Clear favourite- The Odyssey56%
- Dune: Part Three25%
- Project Hail Mary9%
- Werwulf7%
- Digger7%
- Fatherland1%
+31 pt margin · 10 nominees · 4 more
Best Supporting Actress Winner
Clear favourite- Anne Hathaway49%
- Penélope Cruz14%
- Mariana di Girolamo12%
- Betty Gilpin6%
- Zendaya6%
- Sandra Hüller5%
+35 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
Best Actress Winner
Decided- Julianne Moore70%
- Inde Navarrette13%
- Renate Reinsve8%
- Sandra Hüller4%
- Virginie Efira2%
- Léa Seydoux1%
+57 pt margin · 11 nominees · 5 more
Best International Feature Film Winner
Decided- The Black Ball79%
- Possible Love6%
- Fatherland6%
- Fjord5%
- All of a Sudden3%
- Minotaur2%
+73 pt margin · 15 nominees · 9 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Odds — dated market snapshotas of September 22, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Wild Horse Nine | Polymarket | 41% | $28.4K |
The Debut | Polymarket | 29% | $1.9K |
Obsession | Polymarket | 8% | $899 |
Fjord | Polymarket | 7% | $2.3K |
Digger | Polymarket | 6% | $3.4K |
Elsinore | Polymarket | 6% | $878 |
The Drama | Polymarket | 4% | $59 |
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma | Polymarket | 3% | $102 |
The Odyssey | Polymarket | 3% | $81 |
The Invite | Polymarket | 3% | $80 |
Josephine | Polymarket | 3% | $59 |
Club Kid | Polymarket | 1% | $555 |
The Adventures of Cliff Booth | Polymarket | 1% | $168 |
The Black Ball | Polymarket | 1% | $165 |
Forgotten Island | Polymarket | 1% | $142 |
A Place in Hell | Polymarket | 1% | $122 |
Fatherland | Polymarket | 1% | $102 |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence is keyed on the first 16 of 17 keyable listings on this snapshot (the route's per-request cap); the rest were not read.
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the September 22, 2026 snapshot · 41/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 16/30 | $39.3K in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 17 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 attributable day tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- One tracked Polymarket listing prices Wild Horse Nine at 41% implied probability.
- Polymarket reports $39K in venue-native event volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Tuesday, September 22 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner at 41% implied probability on Polymarket as of Tuesday, September 22. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 17 tracked market rows, Polymarket reports $39K in venue-native event volume. Wild Horse Nine leads at 41%, a slight edge, ahead of The Debut at 29%. It currently trades on Polymarket; any related listing on another venue remains separate until identity is confirmed.
How entertainment markets like this resolve
Entertainment markets resolve on a public result — an awards outcome, a box-office figure, a release. The price is what traders pay for each result before it’s known.
What could move it
Nominations, review embargoes and early tracking, release schedules, and audience buzz drive the moves. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 41% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 41¢ implies a 41% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Tuesday, September 22; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Entertainment market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Entertainment odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner?
As of Tuesday, September 22, Polymarket price Wild Horse Nine at 41% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Wild Horse Nine?
The prediction market implies a 41% chance of Wild Horse Nine on Polymarket as of Tuesday, September 22 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. A second venue listing is shown separately until W.E.T. confirms same-outcome equivalence.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
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