Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner — Odds & Probability
By Corbin V King · Updated November 5, 2026
As of November 5, 2026, the prediction market implies a 74% chance of Julianne Moore on Polymarket, with $166.7K in venue-reported volume.
This market is a constituent of theAwards Race— the published W.E.T. index it helps price.
▼ 76% → 74%since November 3, 2026
Implied probability snapshot
Market favorite
Julianne Moore — market favorite
Polymarket · $166.7K reported volume
74%
Implied
Venue listing
View the live market on Polymarket
This W.E.T. observation is dated. Open Polymarket to verify later availability and price changes.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →The slate at this observation
Ceremony
Oscars 2027
15 categories priced
Still contested
2
inside 15 points
Tightest
+11
Best Supporting Actor Winner
Best Supporting Actor Winner
Contested- Paul Giamatti32%
- Andrew Garfield21%
- Guitarricadelafuente18%
- Tom Holland11%
- Sam Rockwell6%
- John Leguizamo6%
+11 pt margin · 24 nominees · 18 more
Best Casting Winner
Contested- The Odyssey48%
- La Bola Negra35%
- Dune: Part Three15%
- Wild Horse Nine13%
- Obsession4%
- Fjord1%
+13 pt margin · 17 nominees · 11 more
Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
Clear favourite- The Black Ball47%
- The Invite25%
- The Odyssey21%
- All of a Sudden3%
- Project Hail Mary2%
- Ink1%
+22 pt margin · 15 nominees · 9 more
Best Actor Winner
Clear favourite- John Malkovich46%
- Andrew Scott20%
- Matt Damon17%
- Tom Cruise8%
- Anthony Ippolito8%
- Timothée Chalamet3%
+26 pt margin · 22 nominees · 16 more
Best Supporting Actress Winner
Clear favourite- Anne Hathaway53%
- Amanda Seyfried25%
- Penélope Cruz8%
- Kate O'Flynn7%
- Sandra Hüller4%
- Samantha Morton4%
+28 pt margin · 17 nominees · 11 more
Best Visual Effects Winner
Clear favourite- Dune: Part Three55%
- Project Hail Mary26%
- The Odyssey11%
- Godzilla Minus Zero10%
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day4%
- Avengers: Doomsday3%
+29 pt margin · 6 nominees
Best Cinematography Winner
Clear favourite- The Odyssey59%
- Dune: Part Three25%
- Werwulf12%
- Digger9%
- Project Hail Mary7%
- Fatherland1%
+34 pt margin · 10 nominees · 4 more
Best Original Screenplay Winner
Decided- Wild Horse Nine60%
- The Debut20%
- Club Kid8%
- Fjord7%
- Obsession7%
- Elsinore7%
+40 pt margin · 17 nominees · 11 more
Best Picture Winner
Decided- The Odyssey57%
- You Can See Everything16%
- La Bola Negra14%
- Dune: Part Three9%
- Digger3%
- Wild Horse Nine1%
+41 pt margin · 24 nominees · 18 more
Best Director Winner
Decided- Christopher Nolan60%
- Lance Oppenheim12%
- Javier Calvo or Javier Ambrossi12%
- Denis Villeneuve10%
- Olivia Wilde2%
- Martin McDonagh2%
+48 pt margin · 21 nominees · 15 more
Best Original Score Winner
Decided- The Odyssey66%
- Dune: Part Three18%
- The Black Ball7%
- Project Hail Mary5%
- Disclosure Day4%
- Whalefall4%
+48 pt margin · 12 nominees · 6 more
Best Documentary Feature Film Winner
Decided- You Can See Everything73%
- NAZA22%
- American Doctor3%
- Nuisance Bear2%
- One in a Million2%
- Tutu2%
+51 pt margin · 9 nominees · 3 more
Best Actress Winner
Decided- Julianne Moore74%
- Inde Navarrette18%
- Sandra Hüller5%
- Renate Reinsve2%
- Scarlett Johansson2%
- Léa Seydoux1%
+56 pt margin · 18 nominees · 12 more
Best Animated Feature Film Winner
Decided- Wildwood78%
- Ray Gunn5%
- Tangles4%
- Toy Story 53%
- Forgotten Island2%
- Hoppers1%
+73 pt margin · 9 nominees · 3 more
Best International Feature Film Winner
Decided- The Black Ball82%
- All of a Sudden5%
- Fjord4%
- Fatherland4%
- Possible Love4%
- Minotaur2%
+77 pt margin · 15 nominees · 9 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Odds — dated market snapshotas of November 5, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Julianne Moore | Polymarket | 74% | $105.7K |
Inde Navarrette | Polymarket | 18% | $32.8K |
Sandra Hüller | Polymarket | 5% | $4.3K |
Renate Reinsve | Polymarket | 2% | $14.9K |
Scarlett Johansson | Polymarket | 2% | $1.7K |
Léa Seydoux | Polymarket | 1% | $1.2K |
Ruth Madeley | Polymarket | 1% | $1K |
Emily Blunt | Polymarket | 1% | $590 |
Michelle Williams | Polymarket | 1% | $577 |
Anne Hathaway | Polymarket | 1% | $564 |
Joan Collins | Polymarket | 1% | $559 |
Cynthia Erivo | Polymarket | 1% | $517 |
Virginie Efira | Polymarket | 1% | $480 |
Rachel Brosnahan | Polymarket | 1% | $478 |
Sophie Okonedo | Polymarket | 1% | $444 |
Olivia Wilde | Polymarket | 1% | $369 |
Rosalind Eleazar | Polymarket | 1% | $311 |
Mikey Madison | Polymarket | 1% | $216 |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence is keyed on the first 16 of 18 keyable listings on this snapshot (the route's per-request cap); the rest were not read.
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the November 5, 2026 snapshot · 60/100 · Solid Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 22/30 | $166.7K in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 18 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 15/15 | 43 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- One tracked Polymarket listing prices Julianne Moore at 74% implied probability.
- Polymarket reports $167K in venue-native event volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Thursday, November 5 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner at 74% implied probability on Polymarket as of Thursday, November 5. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 18 tracked market rows, Polymarket reports $167K in venue-native event volume. Julianne Moore leads at 74%, a strong favorite, ahead of Inde Navarrette at 18%. It currently trades on Polymarket; any related listing on another venue remains separate until identity is confirmed.
How entertainment markets like this resolve
Entertainment markets resolve on a public result — an awards outcome, a box-office figure, a release. The price is what traders pay for each result before it’s known.
What could move it
Nominations, review embargoes and early tracking, release schedules, and audience buzz drive the moves. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 74% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 74¢ implies a 74% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Thursday, November 5; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Entertainment market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Entertainment odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner?
As of Thursday, November 5, Polymarket price Julianne Moore at 74% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Julianne Moore?
The prediction market implies a 74% chance of Julianne Moore on Polymarket as of Thursday, November 5 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. A second venue listing is shown separately until W.E.T. confirms same-outcome equivalence.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/oscars-2027-best-actress-winner-odds-2027-07-01?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=oscars-2027-best-actress-winner-odds-2027-07-01">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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