Prediction Desk
Tech Prediction Market Odds & Probability (2026)
Across dated snapshots through November 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 13 open-status tech markets, with $89.7M in comparable USD-reported volume. This desk covers technology companies, ai, regulation, innovation. Below is every open-at-snapshot tech market W.E.T. tracks from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each price remains venue-attributed; numerical comparison is withheld without exact identity. Contract counts and mixed-unit totals are not added to the USD figure. These are dated observations, not continuous quotes, tips, or forecasts.
13
Open snapshots
$89.7M
Comparable volume
12
Priced snapshots
Closest calls — near a coin flip
Open-at-snapshot Tech marketscorpus through November 5, 2026
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.3M vol
Which company has best AI model end of 2026? — Odds
Google · Polymarket · $4M vol
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $77.7M vol
New pandemic in 2026? — Odds & Probability
New pandemic in 2026? · Polymarket · $1.3M vol
GTA 6 launch postponed again? — Odds & Probability
GTA 6 launch postponed again? · Polymarket · $864.4K vol
Gemini 4.0 released by...? — Odds & Probability
October 31 · Polymarket · $1.7M vol
When will Virgin Galactic launch their next commercial
Before July 2027 · Kalshi · 9K contracts vol
Which company has best AI model end of 2026? — Odds
Anthropic · Polymarket · $1.3M vol
Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD? — Odds & Probability
Before Jan 1, 2032 · Kalshi · 8.7K contracts vol
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026? — Odds
14–16 · Polymarket · $1.5M vol
When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360
Before 2028 · Kalshi · 18.3K contracts vol
#1 Searched Passing on Google in the US 2026? — Odds
Dolly Parton · Polymarket · $71.3K vol
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 — Odds & Probability
Recently settled
Final pre-close reads, frozen as archives — browse the full settled markets archive.
Priced into these indexes
W.E.T. indexes that hold markets from the tech board. The count is how many of this page’s contracts each one actually reads — the index is the story, these markets are its evidence.
Frequently asked questions
What does W.E.T.'s latest tech market snapshot record?
Across dated snapshots through November 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 13 tech markets with an open status from Kalshi and Polymarket, with $89.7M in comparable USD-reported volume. Contract counts and mixed-unit event totals are excluded. Each snapshot shows implied probability — the captured market price read as a percentage — for real events, such as "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? — Odds". These are dated observations, not forecasts or continuously updated quotes.
Which tech market has the largest comparable USD-reported volume?
Among open-status snapshots through November 5, 2026, "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? — Odds" has the largest comparable USD-reported volume. Its captured read records a 2% implied probability for December 31 on Polymarket, on $77.7M in volume.
Are these tech odds a prediction of what will happen?
No. These are dated prediction-market prices shown as implied probability — captured observations, not current quotes, advice, or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
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W.E.T. content is informational and educational only — nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, and none of it is a prediction of the outcome. Verify current prices, rules, and availability directly on the relevant platform. See our full disclaimer.