Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner — Odds
By Corbin V King · Updated September 21, 2026
As of September 21, 2026, the prediction market implies a 30% chance of The Black Ball on Polymarket, with $25.6K in venue-reported volume.
Implied probability snapshot
Market favorite
The Black Ball — market favorite
Polymarket · $25.6K reported volume
30%
Implied
Venue listing
View the live market on Polymarket
This W.E.T. observation is dated. Open Polymarket to verify later availability and price changes.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →The slate at this observation
Ceremony
Oscars 2027
10 categories priced
Still contested
3
inside 15 points
Tightest
+2
Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
Contested- The Black Ball30%
- The Invite28%
- The Odyssey27%
- The Adventures of Cliff Booth7%
- Project Hail Mary6%
- Ink5%
+2 pt margin · 15 nominees · 9 more
Best Documentary Feature Film Winner
Contested- Once Upon a Time in Harlem14%
- American Doctor12%
- One in a Million8%
- Tutu5%
- Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party4%
- Musk4%
+2 pt margin · 7 nominees · 1 more
Best Original Screenplay Winner
Contested- The Debut37%
- Wild Horse Nine34%
- Digger8%
- Obsession8%
- Elsinore7%
- The Drama4%
+3 pt margin · 17 nominees · 11 more
Best Animated Feature Film Winner
Clear favourite- Wildwood48%
- Toy Story 528%
- Forgotten Island7%
- Tangles7%
- Ray Gunn6%
- Hoppers4%
+20 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Best Supporting Actress Winner
Clear favourite- Anne Hathaway37%
- Penélope Cruz14%
- Mariana di Girolamo12%
- Sandra Hüller6%
- Betty Gilpin6%
- Zendaya6%
+23 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
Best Visual Effects Winner
Clear favourite- Dune: Part Three55%
- Project Hail Mary26%
- The Odyssey11%
- Godzilla Minus Zero10%
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day4%
- Avengers: Doomsday3%
+29 pt margin · 6 nominees
Best Original Score Winner
Clear favourite- The Odyssey46%
- Dune: Part Three16%
- The Black Ball10%
- Project Hail Mary8%
- Disclosure Day7%
- The Adventures of Cliff Booth3%
+30 pt margin · 12 nominees · 6 more
Best Cinematography Winner
Clear favourite- The Odyssey56%
- Dune: Part Three25%
- Project Hail Mary9%
- Digger7%
- Werwulf4%
- Fatherland1%
+31 pt margin · 10 nominees · 4 more
Best Casting Winner
Decided- The Odyssey54%
- The Black Ball14%
- UNABOMBER10%
- Clarissa8%
- Being Heumann7%
- Obsession6%
+40 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
Best Supporting Actor Winner
Decided- Paul Giamatti53%
- Michael Fassbender12%
- Robert Pattinson10%
- John Goodman8%
- Miles Teller8%
- Sam Rockwell6%
+41 pt margin · 22 nominees · 16 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Odds — dated market snapshotas of September 21, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
The Black Ball | Polymarket | 30% | $13.9K |
The Invite | Polymarket | 28% | $5.1K |
The Odyssey | Polymarket | 27% | $2.2K |
The Adventures of Cliff Booth | Polymarket | 7% | $311 |
Project Hail Mary | Polymarket | 6% | $460 |
Ink | Polymarket | 5% | $829 |
Wildwood | Polymarket | 5% | $512 |
The Social Reckoning | Polymarket | 5% | $232 |
All of a Sudden | Polymarket | 4% | $600 |
Dune: Part Three | Polymarket | 4% | $393 |
Clarissa | Polymarket | 2% | $162 |
Toy Story 5 | Polymarket | 1% | $323 |
Cry to Heaven | Polymarket | 1% | $201 |
Saturn Return | Polymarket | 1% | $198 |
The Whisper Man | Polymarket | 1% | $187 |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the September 21, 2026 snapshot · 39/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 14/30 | $25.6K in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 15 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 attributable day tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
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Key takeaways
- One tracked Polymarket listing prices The Black Ball at 30% implied probability.
- Polymarket reports $26K in venue-native event volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Monday, September 21 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner at 30% implied probability on Polymarket as of Monday, September 21. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 15 tracked market rows, Polymarket reports $26K in venue-native event volume. The Black Ball leads at 30%, a longshot, ahead of The Invite at 28%. It currently trades on Polymarket; any related listing on another venue remains separate until identity is confirmed.
How entertainment markets like this resolve
Entertainment markets resolve on a public result — an awards outcome, a box-office figure, a release. The price is what traders pay for each result before it’s known.
What could move it
Nominations, review embargoes and early tracking, release schedules, and audience buzz drive the moves. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 30% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 30¢ implies a 30% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Monday, September 21; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Entertainment market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Entertainment odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner?
As of Monday, September 21, Polymarket price The Black Ball at 30% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of The Black Ball?
The prediction market implies a 30% chance of The Black Ball on Polymarket as of Monday, September 21 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. A second venue listing is shown separately until W.E.T. confirms same-outcome equivalence.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/oscars-2027-best-adapted-screenplay-winner-odds-2027-03-14?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=oscars-2027-best-adapted-screenplay-winner-odds-2027-03-14">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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