Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner — Odds
By Corbin King · Updated August 11, 2026
As of August 11, 2026, the prediction market implies a 37% chance of The Odyssey on Polymarket, on $6.3K in traded volume.
Implied probability & market prediction
Market favorite
The Odyssey — market favorite
Polymarket · $6.3K traded
37%
Implied
Live market
View the live market on Polymarket
Prices move continuously — open Polymarket for the current line.
The slate — where it is still open
Ceremony
Oscars 2027
10 categories priced
Still contested
2
inside 15 points
Tightest
+2
Best Actor Winner
Best Actor Winner
Contested- Tom Cruise30%
- Matt Damon28%
- Andrew Scott17%
- Robert Pattinson8%
- John Malkovich8%
- Sam Rockwell4%
+2 pt margin · 18 nominees · 12 more
Best Actress Winner
Contested- Julianne Moore33%
- Inde Navarrette20%
- Renate Reinsve14%
- Sandra Hüller8%
- Ruth Madeley6%
- Rachel Brosnahan6%
+13 pt margin · 11 nominees · 5 more
Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
Clear favourite- The Odyssey37%
- The Black Ball22%
- Cry to Heaven17%
- The Whisper Man16%
- Ink16%
- Dune: Part Three15%
+15 pt margin · 15 nominees · 9 more
Best Original Screenplay Winner
Clear favourite- Wild Horse Nine36%
- Obsession16%
- Digger11%
- Fjord8%
- Josephine6%
- The Drama6%
+20 pt margin · 17 nominees · 11 more
Best Supporting Actress Winner
Clear favourite- Anne Hathaway38%
- Penélope Cruz13%
- Mariana di Girolamo9%
- Inde Navarrette6%
- Betty Gilpin5%
- Sandra Hüller5%
+25 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
Best Documentary Feature Film Winner
Clear favourite- Nuisance Bear49%
- American Doctor23%
- Once Upon a Time in Harlem15%
- Tutu8%
- Musk8%
- One in a Million7%
+26 pt margin · 7 nominees · 1 more
Best Original Score Winner
Clear favourite- The Odyssey42%
- Dune: Part Three16%
- Project Hail Mary13%
- Disclosure Day11%
- The Black Ball6%
- The Drama4%
+26 pt margin · 12 nominees · 6 more
Best Visual Effects Winner
Clear favourite- Dune: Part Three56%
- Project Hail Mary25%
- The Odyssey10%
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day6%
- Avengers: Doomsday5%
- Godzilla Minus Zero5%
+31 pt margin · 6 nominees
Best Picture Winner
Clear favourite- The Odyssey49%
- Dune: Part Three14%
- Wild Horse Nine10%
- Digger8%
- Fjord6%
- Project Hail Mary5%
+35 pt margin · 19 nominees · 13 more
Best Cinematography Winner
Decided- The Odyssey62%
- Dune: Part Three20%
- The Adventures of Cliff Booth7%
- Werwulf1%
- Fatherland1%
- Josephine1%
+42 pt margin · 10 nominees · 4 more
Every category decided the same night, tightest race first. The lower bar is the runner-up — the gap between them is the margin.
Live markets — full navigation
Every market on this event, streaming — filter by type, tap any row for the live Kalshi & Polymarket price.
Odds — full market snapshotas of August 11, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
The Odyssey | Polymarket | 37% | $1K |
The Black Ball | Polymarket | 22% | $3.9K |
Cry to Heaven | Polymarket | 17% | $140 |
The Whisper Man | Polymarket | 16% | $99 |
Ink | Polymarket | 16% | $99 |
Dune: Part Three | Polymarket | 15% | $87 |
The Invite | Polymarket | 9% | $84 |
The Adventures of Cliff Booth | Polymarket | 7% | $106 |
The Social Reckoning | Polymarket | 6% | $139 |
Toy Story 5 | Polymarket | 5% | $174 |
Project Hail Mary | Polymarket | 5% | $117 |
Wildwood | Polymarket | 4% | $103 |
All of a Sudden | Polymarket | 4% | $99 |
Saturn Return | Polymarket | 2% | $97 |
Clarissa | Polymarket | 1% | $76 |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. Odds move continuously; this is a dated snapshot — open the live venue for the current price.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five measurable inputs — traded volume, news corroboration, cross-venue agreement, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the August 11, 2026 snapshot · 33/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 8/30 | $6.3K in matched volume across this event's markets. Log-scaled: thin books score near zero, $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue agreement | 8/20 | Priced on one venue only — no independent book to check the number against, so this component sits at a neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 15 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 day of daily probability history on file. A longer tape shows how the price behaves, not just where it sits. |
The W.E.T. Score measures market microstructure — how much money, agreement, coverage, and corroboration sit behind a price. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Read it here. Act on it with the desk.
Everything above stays free — the score, the component breakdown, the cross-venue gap, the methodology. W.E.T. Premium doesn't unlock a hidden number; it adds the tooling that turns a reading into a move: the divergence scanner across every tracked market, the Index Desk, and the room where the desk argues it out.
Key takeaways
- Prediction markets price The Odyssey at 37% implied probability on Polymarket.
- $6K has traded across 15 markets on this event.
- This is implied probability from live trading as of Tuesday, August 11 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner at 37% implied probability on Polymarket as of Tuesday, August 11. Here is the live market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 15 tracked markets, $6K has changed hands on this event — light but tradable interest. The Odyssey leads at 37%, a slight edge, ahead of The Black Ball at 22%. It currently trades on Polymarket; if it also lists on the other venue, the cross-venue gap becomes a second signal to watch.
How entertainment markets like this resolve
Entertainment markets resolve on a public result — an awards outcome, a box-office figure, a release. The price is what traders pay for each result before it’s known.
What could move it
Nominations, review embargoes and early tracking, release schedules, and audience buzz drive the moves. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 37% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 37¢ implies a 37% chance the market resolves YES: a live, tradable estimate of probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Tuesday, August 11; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Entertainment market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Entertainment odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner?
As of Tuesday, August 11, Polymarket price The Odyssey at 37% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of The Odyssey?
The prediction market implies a 37% chance of The Odyssey on Polymarket as of Tuesday, August 11 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This event is currently listed on Polymarket. When an event trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, W.E.T. shows the cross-venue divergence, because a gap on the same outcome can signal an edge or a difference in the fine print.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are live prices from a prediction market, shown as implied probability — a reflection of what traders are collectively paying, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/oscars-2027-best-adapted-screenplay-winner-odds-2027-03-14?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=oscars-2027-best-adapted-screenplay-winner-odds-2027-03-14">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
Watch this market move
Live odds, catalysts, and cross-venue divergence on Kalshi and Polymarket — then argue about what's priced in with the crowd.