Prediction Desk
Economy Prediction Market Odds & Probability (2026)
Across dated snapshots through November 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 18 open-status economy markets, with $62.3M in comparable USD-reported volume. This desk covers fed decisions, inflation, employment, gdp forecasts. Below is every open-at-snapshot economy market W.E.T. tracks from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each price remains venue-attributed; numerical comparison is withheld without exact identity. Contract counts and mixed-unit totals are not added to the USD figure. These are dated observations, not continuous quotes, tips, or forecasts.
18
Open snapshots
$62.3M
Comparable volume
18
Priced snapshots
Closest calls — near a coin flip
Open-at-snapshot Economy marketscorpus through November 5, 2026
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? — Odds & Probability
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? · Polymarket · $1.4M vol
Fed Decision in December 2026? — Odds & Probability
25 bps increase · Polymarket · $13M vol
Fed Decision in January 2027? — Odds & Probability
No change · Polymarket · $1.2M vol
How high will inflation get in 2026? — Odds
Above 4.5% · Polymarket · $1.5M vol
US recession by end of 2026? — Odds & Probability
US recession by end of 2026? · Polymarket · $2.4M vol
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? — Odds & Probability
↑ 4.25% · Polymarket · $1.9M vol
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? — Odds & Probability
2 (50 bps) · Polymarket · $1.5M vol
Next Fed rate hike? — Odds & Probability
Before 2029 · Kalshi · 187.9K contracts vol
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? — Odds
4.25% · Polymarket · $7.1M vol
When will Oura officially announce an IPO? — Odds
Before Jul 1, 2027 · Kalshi · 58.8K contracts vol
Next Fed rate cut? — Odds & Probability
Before 2029 · Kalshi
China Annual GDP Growth 2026 — Odds & Probability
4.0–5.0% · Polymarket · $944.2K vol
How high will inflation get in 2026? — Odds
Above 4.5% · Polymarket · $1.5M vol
Fed Decision in December 2026? — Odds & Probability
25 bps increase · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? — Odds
4.25% · Polymarket · $6.9M vol
Fed rate hike in 2026? — Odds & Probability
Fed rate hike in 2026? · Polymarket · $9.8M vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December
Yes · Polymarket · $11.8M vol
Which companies will the US take a stake in? — Odds
GlobalFoundries · Polymarket · $177.2K vol
Recently settled
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Priced into these indexes
W.E.T. indexes that hold markets from the economy board. The count is how many of this page’s contracts each one actually reads — the index is the story, these markets are its evidence.
Frequently asked questions
What does W.E.T.'s latest economy market snapshot record?
Across dated snapshots through November 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 18 economy markets with an open status from Kalshi and Polymarket, with $62.3M in comparable USD-reported volume. Contract counts and mixed-unit event totals are excluded. Each snapshot shows implied probability — the captured market price read as a percentage — for real events, such as "Fed Decision in December 2026? — Odds & Probability". These are dated observations, not forecasts or continuously updated quotes.
Which economy market has the largest comparable USD-reported volume?
Among open-status snapshots through November 5, 2026, "Fed Decision in December 2026? — Odds & Probability" has the largest comparable USD-reported volume. Its captured read records a 78% implied probability for 25 bps increase on Polymarket, on $13M in volume.
Are these economy odds a prediction of what will happen?
No. These are dated prediction-market prices shown as implied probability — captured observations, not current quotes, advice, or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
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