Prediction Desk
Economy Prediction Market Odds & Probability (2026)
Across dated snapshots through September 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 29 open-status economy markets, with $126.5M in comparable USD-reported volume. This desk covers fed decisions, inflation, employment, gdp forecasts. Below is every open-at-snapshot economy market W.E.T. tracks from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each price remains venue-attributed; numerical comparison is withheld without exact identity. Contract counts and mixed-unit totals are not added to the USD figure. These are dated observations, not continuous quotes, tips, or forecasts.
29
Open snapshots
$126.5M
Comparable volume
29
Priced snapshots
Closest calls — near a coin flip
Open-at-snapshot Economy marketscorpus through September 5, 2026
Fed Decision in October 2026? — Odds & Probability
No change · Polymarket · $1.3M vol
Fed Decision in September 2026? — Odds & Probability
25 bps increase · Polymarket · $97.7M vol
How high will inflation get in 2026? — Odds
Above 4.5% · Polymarket · $1.4M vol
Fed rate hike in 2026? — Odds & Probability
Fed rate hike in 2026? · Polymarket · $8.7M vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December
Yes · Polymarket · $10.4M vol
US recession by end of 2026? — Odds & Probability
US recession by end of 2026? · Polymarket · $1.7M vol
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? — Odds & Probability
↑ 4.25% · Polymarket · $1.8M vol
August 2026 Inflation US - Annual — Odds & Probability
3.4% · Polymarket · $53.8K vol
Bank of Brazil decision in September 2026? — Odds
25 bps decrease · Polymarket · $131K vol
Bank of Canada Decision in October 2026? — Odds
No Change · Polymarket · $46.8K vol
Bank of Japan Decision in October 2026? — Odds
No change · Polymarket · $57.8K vol
Bank of Japan Decision in September 2026? — Odds
25 bps increase · Polymarket · $483.8K vol
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026 — Odds & Probability
No change · Polymarket · $51.3K vol
ECB Interest Rates: September 2026 — Odds & Probability
25 bps increase · Polymarket · $314.2K vol
Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 — Odds & Probability
0.8-1.1% · Polymarket · $52.6K vol
Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) — Odds & Probability
Other · Polymarket · $733.7K vol
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) — Odds & Probability
Other · Polymarket · $823K vol
How many jobs added in August 2026? — Odds & Probability
50k – 100k · Polymarket · $40.8K vol
People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?
No Change · Polymarket · $49.8K vol
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September 2026
25 bps increase · Polymarket · $46.1K vol
South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026? — Odds
3.0–3.4% · Polymarket · $43.6K vol
What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on
$335K - $340K · Polymarket · $84.8K vol
What will the median home value in Miami be on
$1.089M - $1.125M · Polymarket · $64.5K vol
When will Fannie Mae officially announce an IPO? — Odds
Before Jun 1, 2027 · Kalshi · 28.1K contracts vol
When will Oura officially announce an IPO? — Odds
Before Jan 1, 2028 · Kalshi · 43.4K contracts vol
Which companies will the US take a stake in? — Odds
GlobalFoundries · Polymarket · $177.2K vol
What will the median home value in the Austin Metro
<$446K · Polymarket · $88.8K vol
What will the median home value in the US be on
<$419K · Polymarket · $61K vol
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026? — Odds & Probability
4.3-4.6% · Polymarket · $29.4K vol
Recently settled
Final pre-close reads, frozen as archives — browse the full settled markets archive.
Priced into these indexes
W.E.T. indexes that hold markets from the economy board. The count is how many of this page’s contracts each one actually reads — the index is the story, these markets are its evidence.
Frequently asked questions
What does W.E.T.'s latest economy market snapshot record?
Across dated snapshots through September 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 29 economy markets with an open status from Kalshi and Polymarket, with $126.5M in comparable USD-reported volume. Contract counts and mixed-unit event totals are excluded. Each snapshot shows implied probability — the captured market price read as a percentage — for real events, such as "Fed Decision in September 2026? — Odds & Probability". These are dated observations, not forecasts or continuously updated quotes.
Which economy market has the largest comparable USD-reported volume?
Among open-status snapshots through September 5, 2026, "Fed Decision in September 2026? — Odds & Probability" has the largest comparable USD-reported volume. Its captured read records a 51% implied probability for 25 bps increase on Polymarket, on $97.7M in volume.
Are these economy odds a prediction of what will happen?
No. These are dated prediction-market prices shown as implied probability — captured observations, not current quotes, advice, or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
W.E.T. content is informational and educational only — nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, and none of it is a prediction of the outcome. Verify current prices, rules, and availability directly on the relevant platform. See our full disclaimer.