Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Feature Film Winner — Odds
By Corbin V King · Updated September 23, 2026
As of September 23, 2026, the prediction market implies a 14% chance of Once Upon a Time in Harlem on Polymarket, with $24.5K in venue-reported volume.
Implied probability snapshot
Market favorite
Once Upon a Time in Harlem — market favorite
Polymarket · $24.5K reported volume
14%
Implied
Venue listing
View the live market on Polymarket
This W.E.T. observation is dated. Open Polymarket to verify later availability and price changes.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →The slate at this observation
Ceremony
Oscars 2027
14 categories priced
Still contested
4
inside 15 points
Tightest
+2
Best Documentary Feature Film Winner
Best Documentary Feature Film Winner
Contested- Once Upon a Time in Harlem14%
- American Doctor12%
- One in a Million6%
- Tutu5%
- Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party4%
- Musk4%
+2 pt margin · 7 nominees · 1 more
Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
Contested- The Black Ball36%
- The Invite31%
- The Odyssey23%
- All of a Sudden6%
- The Adventures of Cliff Booth6%
- Wildwood5%
+5 pt margin · 15 nominees · 9 more
Best Original Screenplay Winner
Contested- Wild Horse Nine41%
- The Debut28%
- Digger11%
- Fjord10%
- Obsession8%
- Elsinore6%
+13 pt margin · 17 nominees · 11 more
Best Actor Winner
Contested- John Malkovich39%
- Matt Damon25%
- Andrew Scott17%
- Tom Cruise13%
- Robert Pattinson6%
- Ryan Gosling2%
+14 pt margin · 18 nominees · 12 more
Best Picture Winner
Clear favourite- The Odyssey49%
- La Bola Negra31%
- Dune: Part Three12%
- Digger3%
- Wild Horse Nine3%
- The Debut2%
+18 pt margin · 22 nominees · 16 more
Best Supporting Actor Winner
Clear favourite- Paul Giamatti38%
- Sam Rockwell20%
- Robert Pattinson15%
- Miles Teller11%
- Edward Norton9%
- Guy Pearce8%
+18 pt margin · 22 nominees · 16 more
Best Animated Feature Film Winner
Clear favourite- Wildwood50%
- Toy Story 525%
- Tangles14%
- Ray Gunn9%
- Forgotten Island7%
- Hoppers5%
+25 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Best Visual Effects Winner
Clear favourite- Dune: Part Three55%
- Project Hail Mary26%
- The Odyssey11%
- Godzilla Minus Zero10%
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day4%
- Avengers: Doomsday3%
+29 pt margin · 6 nominees
Best Original Score Winner
Clear favourite- The Odyssey46%
- Dune: Part Three16%
- The Black Ball10%
- Project Hail Mary7%
- Disclosure Day7%
- Whalefall4%
+30 pt margin · 12 nominees · 6 more
Best Cinematography Winner
Clear favourite- The Odyssey59%
- Dune: Part Three25%
- Project Hail Mary9%
- Werwulf6%
- Digger6%
- Fatherland1%
+34 pt margin · 10 nominees · 4 more
Best Director Winner
Clear favourite- Christopher Nolan56%
- Denis Villeneuve21%
- Alejandro G. Iñárritu6%
- Martin McDonagh6%
- Phil Lord or Christopher Miller6%
- Jesse Eisenberg5%
+35 pt margin · 14 nominees · 8 more
Best Supporting Actress Winner
Decided- Anne Hathaway56%
- Penélope Cruz14%
- Mariana di Girolamo12%
- Sandra Hüller5%
- Betty Gilpin5%
- Zendaya5%
+42 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
Best Actress Winner
Decided- Julianne Moore65%
- Inde Navarrette15%
- Sandra Hüller4%
- Renate Reinsve3%
- Virginie Efira2%
- Léa Seydoux1%
+50 pt margin · 11 nominees · 5 more
Best International Feature Film Winner
Decided- The Black Ball79%
- Fatherland6%
- Fjord5%
- Possible Love5%
- All of a Sudden3%
- Minotaur2%
+73 pt margin · 15 nominees · 9 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Odds — dated market snapshotas of September 23, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Once Upon a Time in Harlem | Polymarket | 14% | $2.1K |
American Doctor | Polymarket | 12% | $11.7K |
One in a Million | Polymarket | 6% | $2.1K |
Tutu | Polymarket | 5% | $699 |
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party | Polymarket | 4% | $139 |
Musk | Polymarket | 4% | $51 |
Nuisance Bear | Polymarket | 3% | $7.7K |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the September 23, 2026 snapshot · 35/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 14/30 | $24.5K in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 11/15 | 7 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 attributable day tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- One tracked Polymarket listing prices Once Upon a Time in Harlem at 14% implied probability.
- Polymarket reports $24K in venue-native event volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Wednesday, September 23 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Feature Film Winner at 14% implied probability on Polymarket as of Wednesday, September 23. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 7 tracked market rows, Polymarket reports $24K in venue-native event volume. Once Upon a Time in Harlem leads at 14%, a longshot, ahead of American Doctor at 12%. It currently trades on Polymarket; any related listing on another venue remains separate until identity is confirmed.
How entertainment markets like this resolve
Entertainment markets resolve on a public result — an awards outcome, a box-office figure, a release. The price is what traders pay for each result before it’s known.
What could move it
Nominations, review embargoes and early tracking, release schedules, and audience buzz drive the moves. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 14% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 14¢ implies a 14% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Wednesday, September 23; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Feature Film Winner?
As of Wednesday, September 23, Polymarket price Once Upon a Time in Harlem at 14% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Once Upon a Time in Harlem?
The prediction market implies a 14% chance of Once Upon a Time in Harlem on Polymarket as of Wednesday, September 23 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. A second venue listing is shown separately until W.E.T. confirms same-outcome equivalence.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
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