Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations — Odds & Probability
By Corbin V King · Updated November 5, 2026
As of November 5, 2026, the prediction market implies a 93% chance of John Malkovich on Polymarket, with $221.5K in venue-reported volume.
▲ 92% → 93%since November 3, 2026
Implied probability snapshot
Market favorite
John Malkovich — market favorite
Polymarket · $221.5K reported volume
93%
Implied
Venue listing
View the live market on Polymarket
This W.E.T. observation is dated. Open Polymarket to verify later availability and price changes.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →The slate at this observation
Ceremony
Oscars 2027
10 categories priced
Still contested
10
inside 15 points
Tightest
+0
Best Animated Short Film Nominations
Best Animated Short Film Nominations
Contested- With Tapes and Toasts in the Car53%
- Paper Trail53%
- Dog Alone47%
- What We Leave Behind47%
- God is Shy40%
- Because Today is Saturday30%
+0 pt margin · 11 nominees · 5 more
Best Costume Design Nominations
Contested- The Odyssey81%
- The Black Ball80%
- Dune: Part Three62%
- Sense and Sensibility57%
- I Love Boosters53%
- Werwulf47%
+1 pt margin · 12 nominees · 6 more
Best Actor Nominations
Contested- John Malkovich93%
- Matt Damon91%
- Andrew Scott89%
- John Turturro49%
- Ryan Gosling46%
- Tom Cruise45%
+2 pt margin · 19 nominees · 13 more
Best Production Design Nominations
Contested- The Odyssey84%
- Project Hail Mary80%
- Dune: Part Three73%
- Digger65%
- Werwulf64%
- Wuthering Heights49%
+4 pt margin · 11 nominees · 5 more
Best Original Screenplay Nominations
Contested- The Debut92%
- Wild Horse Nine88%
- Obsession54%
- Club Kid53%
- Fjord45%
- Josephine34%
+4 pt margin · 18 nominees · 12 more
Best Supporting Actress Nominations
Contested- Anne Hathaway89%
- Penélope Cruz84%
- Samantha Morton72%
- Amanda Seyfried60%
- Tao Okamoto60%
- Kate O'Flynn44%
+5 pt margin · 18 nominees · 12 more
Best Original Song Nominations
Contested- La Nieve - The Black Ball91%
- This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut85%
- I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 563%
- By Any Means - By Any Means60%
- When I'm Home - The Odyssey58%
- How to Write a Song About You - Power Ballad52%
+6 pt margin · 11 nominees · 5 more
Best Supporting Actor Nominations
Contested- Paul Giamatti94%
- Andrew Garfield84%
- Sam Rockwell77%
- Guitarricadelafuente62%
- John Leguizamo62%
- Edward Norton51%
+10 pt margin · 24 nominees · 18 more
Best Documentary Feature Film Nominations
Contested- NAZA95%
- Once Upon a Time in Harlem81%
- You Can See Everything72%
- American Doctor62%
- 14th43%
- Nuisance Bear40%
+14 pt margin · 10 nominees · 4 more
Best Original Score Nominations
Contested- The Odyssey89%
- Dune: Part Three75%
- The Black Ball75%
- Disclosure Day67%
- Project Hail Mary61%
- Wild Horse Nine37%
+14 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Odds — dated market snapshotas of November 5, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
John Malkovich | Polymarket | 93% | $13K |
Matt Damon | Polymarket | 91% | $12.4K |
Andrew Scott | Polymarket | 89% | $14.2K |
John Turturro | Polymarket | 49% | $9.7K |
Ryan Gosling | Polymarket | 46% | $12.8K |
Tom Cruise | Polymarket | 45% | $41.9K |
Anthony Ippolito | Polymarket | 45% | $12.5K |
Robert Pattinson | Polymarket | 27% | $16.2K |
Sebastian Stan | Polymarket | 24% | $7.6K |
Jaafar Jackson | Polymarket | 16% | $15.7K |
Pedro Pascal | Polymarket | 15% | $14.6K |
Timothée Chalamet | Polymarket | 13% | $22.3K |
Javier Bardem | Polymarket | 5% | $654 |
Josh O'Connor | Polymarket | 5% | $225 |
Robert Aramayo | Polymarket | 4% | $7.7K |
Jeremy Strong | Polymarket | 4% | $5.3K |
Adam Driver | Polymarket | 4% | $2.5K |
Brad Pitt | Polymarket | 4% | $2.3K |
Sam Rockwell | Polymarket | 3% | $9.9K |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence is keyed on the first 16 of 19 keyable listings on this snapshot (the route's per-request cap); the rest were not read.
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the November 5, 2026 snapshot · 49/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 23/30 | $221.5K in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 19 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 3/15 | 2 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- One tracked Polymarket listing prices John Malkovich at 93% implied probability.
- Polymarket reports $222K in venue-native event volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Thursday, November 5 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations at 93% implied probability on Polymarket as of Thursday, November 5. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 19 tracked market rows, Polymarket reports $222K in venue-native event volume. John Malkovich leads at 93%, a strong favorite, ahead of Matt Damon at 91%. It currently trades on Polymarket; any related listing on another venue remains separate until identity is confirmed.
How entertainment markets like this resolve
Entertainment markets resolve on a public result — an awards outcome, a box-office figure, a release. The price is what traders pay for each result before it’s known.
What could move it
Nominations, review embargoes and early tracking, release schedules, and audience buzz drive the moves. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 93% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 93¢ implies a 93% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Thursday, November 5; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Entertainment market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Entertainment odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations?
As of Thursday, November 5, Polymarket price John Malkovich at 93% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of John Malkovich?
The prediction market implies a 93% chance of John Malkovich on Polymarket as of Thursday, November 5 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. A second venue listing is shown separately until W.E.T. confirms same-outcome equivalence.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
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How Prediction Market Odds Work: Reading Prices as Probabilities
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/oscars-2027-best-actor-nominations-odds-2027-03-15?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=oscars-2027-best-actor-nominations-odds-2027-03-15">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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