Oscars 2027: Best Original Score Winner — Odds
By Corbin V King · Updated September 17, 2026
As of September 17, 2026, the prediction market implies a 46% chance of The Odyssey on Polymarket, with $25.8K in venue-reported volume.
Implied probability snapshot
Market favorite
The Odyssey — market favorite
Polymarket · $25.8K reported volume
46%
Implied
Venue listing
View the live market on Polymarket
This W.E.T. observation is dated. Open Polymarket to verify later availability and price changes.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →The slate at this observation
Ceremony
Oscars 2027
15 categories priced
Still contested
4
inside 15 points
Tightest
+1
Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
Contested- The Invite28%
- The Black Ball27%
- The Odyssey27%
- All of a Sudden8%
- Project Hail Mary7%
- The Adventures of Cliff Booth7%
+1 pt margin · 15 nominees · 9 more
Best Original Screenplay Winner
Contested- The Debut39%
- Wild Horse Nine34%
- Digger13%
- Obsession8%
- Elsinore6%
- The Drama4%
+5 pt margin · 17 nominees · 11 more
Best Documentary Feature Film Winner
Contested- Once Upon a Time in Harlem18%
- American Doctor12%
- One in a Million7%
- Tutu5%
- Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party4%
- Musk4%
+6 pt margin · 7 nominees · 1 more
Best Actor Winner
Contested- John Malkovich37%
- Matt Damon25%
- Andrew Scott16%
- Tom Cruise6%
- Robert Pattinson5%
- Ryan Gosling2%
+12 pt margin · 18 nominees · 12 more
Best Animated Feature Film Winner
Clear favourite- Wildwood47%
- Toy Story 532%
- Tangles11%
- Forgotten Island7%
- Ray Gunn7%
- Hoppers4%
+15 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Best Supporting Actress Winner
Clear favourite- Anne Hathaway37%
- Penélope Cruz14%
- Mariana di Girolamo12%
- Sandra Hüller6%
- Betty Gilpin6%
- Zendaya6%
+23 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
Best Supporting Actor Winner
Clear favourite- Paul Giamatti53%
- Robert Pattinson25%
- Michael Fassbender12%
- John Goodman7%
- Miles Teller7%
- Sam Rockwell6%
+28 pt margin · 22 nominees · 16 more
Best Visual Effects Winner
Clear favourite- Dune: Part Three55%
- Project Hail Mary26%
- The Odyssey11%
- Godzilla Minus Zero10%
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day4%
- Avengers: Doomsday3%
+29 pt margin · 6 nominees
Best Original Score Winner
Clear favourite- The Odyssey46%
- Dune: Part Three16%
- The Black Ball8%
- Project Hail Mary7%
- Disclosure Day7%
- The Adventures of Cliff Booth3%
+30 pt margin · 12 nominees · 6 more
Best Cinematography Winner
Clear favourite- The Odyssey56%
- Dune: Part Three25%
- Digger10%
- Project Hail Mary8%
- Werwulf4%
- Fatherland1%
+31 pt margin · 10 nominees · 4 more
Best Picture Winner
Clear favourite- The Odyssey52%
- La Bola Negra19%
- Dune: Part Three11%
- Digger5%
- Wild Horse Nine5%
- The Debut4%
+33 pt margin · 22 nominees · 16 more
Best Casting Winner
Decided- The Odyssey54%
- The Black Ball14%
- UNABOMBER10%
- Clarissa8%
- Being Heumann7%
- Obsession6%
+40 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
Best Director Winner
Decided- Christopher Nolan65%
- Denis Villeneuve21%
- Alejandro G. Iñárritu7%
- Martin McDonagh6%
- Phil Lord or Christopher Miller6%
- Jesse Eisenberg4%
+44 pt margin · 14 nominees · 8 more
Best Actress Winner
Decided- Julianne Moore70%
- Inde Navarrette13%
- Renate Reinsve9%
- Sandra Hüller7%
- Virginie Efira2%
- Léa Seydoux1%
+57 pt margin · 11 nominees · 5 more
Best International Feature Film Winner
Decided- The Black Ball73%
- Possible Love11%
- Fatherland7%
- All of a Sudden6%
- Fjord5%
- Minotaur2%
+62 pt margin · 15 nominees · 9 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Odds — dated market snapshotas of September 17, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
The Odyssey | Polymarket | 46% | $18K |
Dune: Part Three | Polymarket | 16% | $4K |
The Black Ball | Polymarket | 8% | $984 |
Project Hail Mary | Polymarket | 7% | $1.2K |
Disclosure Day | Polymarket | 7% | $489 |
The Adventures of Cliff Booth | Polymarket | 3% | $241 |
Whalefall | Polymarket | 3% | $217 |
The Drama | Polymarket | 2% | $191 |
Wild Horse Nine | Polymarket | 2% | $132 |
The Mandalorian and Grogu | Polymarket | 1% | $154 |
Cry to Heaven | Polymarket | 1% | $112 |
The Social Reckoning | Polymarket | 1% | $98 |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the September 17, 2026 snapshot · 52/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 14/30 | $25.8K in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 12 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 15/15 | 20 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- One tracked Polymarket listing prices The Odyssey at 46% implied probability.
- Polymarket reports $26K in venue-native event volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Thursday, September 17 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices Oscars 2027: Best Original Score Winner at 46% implied probability on Polymarket as of Thursday, September 17. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 12 tracked market rows, Polymarket reports $26K in venue-native event volume. The Odyssey leads at 46%, a narrow favorite, ahead of Dune: Part Three at 16%. It currently trades on Polymarket; any related listing on another venue remains separate until identity is confirmed.
How entertainment markets like this resolve
Entertainment markets resolve on a public result — an awards outcome, a box-office figure, a release. The price is what traders pay for each result before it’s known.
What could move it
Nominations, review embargoes and early tracking, release schedules, and audience buzz drive the moves. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 46% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 46¢ implies a 46% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Thursday, September 17; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Entertainment market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Entertainment odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for Oscars 2027: Best Original Score Winner?
As of Thursday, September 17, Polymarket price The Odyssey at 46% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of The Odyssey?
The prediction market implies a 46% chance of The Odyssey on Polymarket as of Thursday, September 17 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. A second venue listing is shown separately until W.E.T. confirms same-outcome equivalence.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
Related topics
How Prediction Market Odds Work: Reading Prices as Probabilities
Prediction market prices are implied probabilities. See how YES/NO contracts settle at $1, how order books set odds, and how spreads compare to vig.
Read on the WireEmbed this market
Put this dated odds snapshot on your site, newsletter, or blog. The card states its as-of date and attributed venue; it changes only when W.E.T. publishes a newer observation and does not independently stream the venue. Works anywhere you can paste an iframe (Substack, WordPress, Ghost, Webflow), and the attribution links back to the full W.E.T. breakdown. Browse available snapshot cards in the widget gallery.
Preview
<iframe src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/embed/predictions/oscars-2027-best-original-score-winner-odds-2027-03-14" width="480" height="200" style="border:0;max-width:100%" loading="lazy" title="Oscars 2027: Best Original Score Winner — Odds — prediction market odds by World Event Trading"></iframe>
<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/oscars-2027-best-original-score-winner-odds-2027-03-14?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=oscars-2027-best-original-score-winner-odds-2027-03-14">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
Continue through event navigation
Browse fetched venue snapshots, catalysts, and attributed listings. Numerical comparisons remain withheld until the canonical graph confirms the same outcome and settlement basis.