Prediction Desk
Finances Prediction Market Odds & Probability (2026)
Across dated snapshots through September 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 32 open-status finances markets, with $123.3M in comparable USD-reported volume. This desk covers banking, fintech, financial regulation. Below is every open-at-snapshot finances market W.E.T. tracks from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each price remains venue-attributed; numerical comparison is withheld without exact identity. Contract counts and mixed-unit totals are not added to the USD figure. These are dated observations, not continuous quotes, tips, or forecasts.
32
Open snapshots
$123.3M
Comparable volume
32
Priced snapshots
Closest calls — near a coin flip
Open-at-snapshot Finances marketscorpus through September 5, 2026
Fed rate hike by...? — Odds & Probability
October Meeting · Polymarket · $2.8M vol
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? — Odds & Probability
0 (0 bps) · Polymarket · $51.3M vol
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $2.8M vol
Largest Company end of December 2026? — Odds
NVIDIA · Polymarket · $6.7M vol
Largest Company end of September 2026? — Odds
NVIDIA · Polymarket · $1.2M vol
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? — Odds & Probability
Anthropic · Polymarket · $5.9M vol
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December 2026?
↑ $5,000 · Polymarket · $1.6M vol
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
↓ $90 · Polymarket · $1.3M vol
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31? — Odds
↑$1.0T · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
AI bubble burst by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31, 2026 · Polymarket · $3M vol
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $12.2M vol
Crude Oil all time high by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $3.3M vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September
Yes · Polymarket · $7.8M vol
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? — Odds
↑$1.5T · Polymarket · $4.5M vol
Will GameStop acquire eBay? — Odds & Probability
Will GameStop acquire eBay? · Polymarket · $2.9M vol
IPOs before 2027? — Odds & Probability
Anthropic · Polymarket · $7.1M vol
OpenAI IPO by...? — Odds & Probability
March 31, 2027 · Polymarket · $2.9M vol
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap — Odds & Probability
No IPO by December 31, 2026 · Polymarket · $2.1M vol
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $781.3K vol
2nd Largest Company end of September 2026? — Odds
Apple · Polymarket · $74.2K vol
3rd Largest Company end of September 2026? — Odds
Alphabet · Polymarket · $106.9K vol
Bank of England decision in September 2026? — Odds
No change · Polymarket · $224.2K vol
Bank of Mexico Decision in September 2026? — Odds
No change · Polymarket · $50.4K vol
Bank of Russia decision in September 2026? — Odds
No Change · Polymarket · $129.3K vol
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
4.8% · Polymarket · $294.8K vol
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
3.9% · Polymarket · $231.2K vol
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? — Odds
Yes · Polymarket · $102.3K vol
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? — Odds
Yes · Polymarket · $52.1K vol
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in September 2026? — Odds
↑ $770 · Polymarket · $41.5K vol
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $329K vol
When will any company achieve AGI? — Odds & Probability
Before Jan 1, 2031 · Kalshi · 83.3K contracts vol
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $312.2K vol
Recently settled
Final pre-close reads, frozen as archives — browse the full settled markets archive.
Priced into these indexes
W.E.T. indexes that hold markets from the finances board. The count is how many of this page’s contracts each one actually reads — the index is the story, these markets are its evidence.
Frequently asked questions
What does W.E.T.'s latest finances market snapshot record?
Across dated snapshots through September 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 32 finances markets with an open status from Kalshi and Polymarket, with $123.3M in comparable USD-reported volume. Contract counts and mixed-unit event totals are excluded. Each snapshot shows implied probability — the captured market price read as a percentage — for real events, such as "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? — Odds & Probability". These are dated observations, not forecasts or continuously updated quotes.
Which finances market has the largest comparable USD-reported volume?
Among open-status snapshots through September 5, 2026, "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? — Odds & Probability" has the largest comparable USD-reported volume. Its captured read records a 93% implied probability for 0 (0 bps) on Polymarket, on $51.3M in volume.
Are these finances odds a prediction of what will happen?
No. These are dated prediction-market prices shown as implied probability — captured observations, not current quotes, advice, or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
W.E.T. content is informational and educational only — nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, and none of it is a prediction of the outcome. Verify current prices, rules, and availability directly on the relevant platform. See our full disclaimer.