Prediction Desk
Finances Prediction Market Odds & Probability (2026)
Across dated snapshots through November 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 34 open-status finances markets, with $323.1M in comparable USD-reported volume. This desk covers banking, fintech, financial regulation. Below is every open-at-snapshot finances market W.E.T. tracks from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each price remains venue-attributed; numerical comparison is withheld without exact identity. Contract counts and mixed-unit totals are not added to the USD figure. These are dated observations, not continuous quotes, tips, or forecasts.
34
Open snapshots
$323.1M
Comparable volume
34
Priced snapshots
Closest calls — near a coin flip
Open-at-snapshot Finances marketscorpus through November 5, 2026
Anthropic IPO by __? — Odds & Probability
December 31, 2026 · Polymarket · $6.4M vol
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $18M vol
Crude Oil all time high by...? — Odds & Probability
March 31, 2027 · Polymarket · $5.6M vol
IPOs before 2027? — Odds & Probability
Anthropic · Polymarket · $7.7M vol
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31 · Polymarket · $77.3M vol
Largest Company end of December 2026? — Odds
Apple · Polymarket · $9.6M vol
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? — Odds & Probability
SpaceX · Polymarket · $7.5M vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December
Yes · Polymarket · $16.7M vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November
Yes · Polymarket · $1.5M vol
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? — Odds
March 31 · Polymarket · $48M vol
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $3.7M vol
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in November 2026?
↓ $85 · Polymarket · $1.2M vol
When will any company achieve AGI? — Odds & Probability
Before Jan 1, 2030 · Kalshi · 224.1K contracts vol
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? — Odds
↑$1.5T · Polymarket · $6.6M vol
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.3% · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap — Odds & Probability
No IPO by December 31, 2026 · Polymarket · $2.6M vol
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $3.6M vol
Will GameStop acquire eBay? — Odds & Probability
Will GameStop acquire eBay? · Polymarket · $3.3M vol
AI bubble burst by...? — Odds & Probability
June 30, 2027 · Polymarket · $3.1M vol
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31? — Odds
↑$1.25T · Polymarket · $1.3M vol
Which companies will be acquired before 2027? — Odds
Viking Therapeutics · Polymarket · $18.4M vol
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December 2027?
↑ $4,500 · Polymarket · $2.5M vol
Which CEOs will be out before 2027? — Odds & Probability
Andy Jassy - Amazon · Polymarket · $715.9K vol
Fed rate cut by...? — Odds & Probability
July 2027 Meeting · Polymarket · $3.7M vol
Largest Company end of December 2026? — Odds
NVIDIA · Polymarket · $7.4M vol
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? — Odds
↑$1.5T · Polymarket · $4.9M vol
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? — Odds & Probability
0 (0 bps) · Polymarket · $53.1M vol
OpenAI IPO by...? — Odds & Probability
June 30, 2027 · Polymarket · $3M vol
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31? — Odds
↑$1.0T · Polymarket · $1.2M vol
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December 2026?
↑ $4,500 · Polymarket · $1.7M vol
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
3.9% · Polymarket · $231.2K vol
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? — Odds
Yes · Polymarket · $102.3K vol
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? — Odds
Yes · Polymarket · $52.1K vol
Recently settled
Final pre-close reads, frozen as archives — browse the full settled markets archive.
Priced into these indexes
W.E.T. indexes that hold markets from the finances board. The count is how many of this page’s contracts each one actually reads — the index is the story, these markets are its evidence.
Frequently asked questions
What does W.E.T.'s latest finances market snapshot record?
Across dated snapshots through November 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 34 finances markets with an open status from Kalshi and Polymarket, with $323.1M in comparable USD-reported volume. Contract counts and mixed-unit event totals are excluded. Each snapshot shows implied probability — the captured market price read as a percentage — for real events, such as "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?". These are dated observations, not forecasts or continuously updated quotes.
Which finances market has the largest comparable USD-reported volume?
Among open-status snapshots through November 5, 2026, "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?" has the largest comparable USD-reported volume. Its captured read records a 5% implied probability for December 31 on Polymarket, on $77.3M in volume.
Are these finances odds a prediction of what will happen?
No. These are dated prediction-market prices shown as implied probability — captured observations, not current quotes, advice, or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
W.E.T. content is informational and educational only — nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, and none of it is a prediction of the outcome. Verify current prices, rules, and availability directly on the relevant platform. See our full disclaimer.