IPOs before 2027? — Odds & Probability
By Corbin V King · Updated November 5, 2026
As of November 5, 2026, the prediction market implies a 91% chance of Anthropic on Polymarket, with $7.7M in venue-reported volume.
This market is a constituent of theAI Race— the published W.E.T. index it helps price.
▼ 95% → 91%since November 3, 2026
Implied probability snapshot
Market favorite
Anthropic — market favorite
Polymarket · $7.7M reported volume
91%
Implied
Venue listing
View the live market on Polymarket
This W.E.T. observation is dated. Open Polymarket to verify later availability and price changes.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →Odds — dated market snapshotas of November 5, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Anthropic | Polymarket | 91% | $731.3K |
Celonis | Polymarket | 23% | $211.8K |
Perplexity | Polymarket | 11% | $817 |
Discord | Polymarket | 6% | $493.5K |
Freddie Mac | Polymarket | 6% | $246.6K |
Glean | Polymarket | 5% | $53.5K |
Ledger | Polymarket | 4% | $515.4K |
Applied Intuition | Polymarket | 4% | $207K |
Rippling | Polymarket | 4% | $122.4K |
Remote | Polymarket | 4% | $56.6K |
OpenAI | Polymarket | 3% | $638.3K |
Stripe | Polymarket | 3% | $271.8K |
Fannie Mae | Polymarket | 3% | $182.8K |
Mistral AI | Polymarket | 3% | $168.2K |
Ripple Labs | Polymarket | 3% | $158.8K |
Vanta | Polymarket | 3% | $150.1K |
Anysphere (Cursor) | Polymarket | 3% | $107K |
Revolut | Polymarket | 3% | $61.9K |
Canva | Polymarket | 3% | $39.6K |
ByteDance | Polymarket | 3% | $33.4K |
Databricks | Polymarket | 2% | $496.3K |
Anduril | Polymarket | 2% | $365.9K |
Ramp | Polymarket | 2% | $158.5K |
Epic Games | Polymarket | 2% | $99.8K |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence is keyed on the first 16 of 24 keyable listings on this snapshot (the route's per-request cap); the rest were not read.
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the November 5, 2026 snapshot · 78/100 · Strong Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 30/30 | $7.7M in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 10/20 | 1 live wire headline lexically matched to this event — real, citable corroboration that the story is moving. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 24 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 15/15 | 23 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
Citable signals (1)
Wire headlines retained with this event snapshot — corroboration behind the news component. Each link is the original source.
- What Shaped Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei’s Thinking on A.I.
New York Times · Nov 5, 2026
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- One tracked Polymarket listing prices Anthropic at 91% implied probability.
- Polymarket reports $7.7M in venue-native event volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Thursday, November 5 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices IPOs before 2027? at 91% implied probability on Polymarket as of Thursday, November 5. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 29 tracked market rows, Polymarket reports $7.7M in venue-native event volume. Anthropic leads at 91%, a strong favorite, ahead of Celonis at 23%. It currently trades on Polymarket; any related listing on another venue remains separate until identity is confirmed.
How finance markets like this resolve
Finance markets resolve on a corporate or market event — a central-bank decision, an M&A close, an IPO, a rate move — by a deadline. The price reflects the crowd’s read on whether it lands.
What could move it
Rate decisions, earnings and guidance, deal news, and regulatory rulings are the catalysts. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 91% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 91¢ implies a 91% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Thursday, November 5; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Finances market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Finances odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
IPOs before 2027?
As of Thursday, November 5, Polymarket price Anthropic at 91% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Anthropic?
The prediction market implies a 91% chance of Anthropic on Polymarket as of Thursday, November 5 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. A second venue listing is shown separately until W.E.T. confirms same-outcome equivalence.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
Are Prediction Markets Accurate? Evidence vs. Polls
A balanced look at prediction market accuracy: why traded odds often beat polls, what IEM research shows, and the failure modes that distort prices.
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/ipos-before-2027-odds-2027-01-01?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=ipos-before-2027-odds-2027-01-01">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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