US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? — Odds & Probability
By Corbin King · Updated September 3, 2026
As of September 3, 2026, the prediction market implies a 11% chance of December 31 on Polymarket, with $17M in venue-reported volume.
This market is a constituent of theFlashpoint Watch— the published W.E.T. index it helps price.
Implied probability snapshot
Market favorite
December 31 — market favorite
Polymarket · $17M reported volume
11%
Implied
Venue listing
View the live market on Polymarket
This W.E.T. observation is dated. Open Polymarket to verify later availability and price changes.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →Timing — when the market expects this
Implied median
not by Dec 31
the curve never reaches 50% on the priced rungs
Steepest window
Nov 30 → Dec 31
+5 points, the biggest jump
Rungs
4
deadlines priced
Each point is a market: the probability this has happened by that date. The curve can only rise, so its steepest stretch is the window the market is pricing.
Fetched venue snapshot — market navigation
One cached fetch of the venue-attributed rows W.E.T. matched to this event. Filter the returned rows by type; this panel does not poll, subscribe, or claim exhaustive venue coverage.
Odds — dated market snapshotas of September 3, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
December 31 | Polymarket | 11% | $2.4M |
November 30 | Polymarket | 6% | $16.3K |
October 31 | Polymarket | 3% | $170.5K |
September 30 | Polymarket | 1% | $1.5M |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the September 3, 2026 snapshot · 46/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 30/30 | $17M in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 6/15 | 4 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 attributable day tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
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Everything above stays free — the score, the component breakdown, any eligible confirmed comparison, and the methodology. W.E.T. Premium doesn't unlock a hidden number; it adds the tooling that turns a reading into a workflow: the Crowd–Market Gap Tracker, dated Index Desk reads and drivers, and the Community crowd–market gap value and direction.
Key takeaways
- One tracked Polymarket listing prices December 31 at 11% implied probability.
- Polymarket reports $17M in venue-native event volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Thursday, September 3 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? at 11% implied probability on Polymarket as of Thursday, September 3. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 4 tracked market rows, Polymarket reports $17M in venue-native event volume. December 31 leads at 11%, a longshot, ahead of November 30 at 6%. It currently trades on Polymarket; any related listing on another venue remains separate until identity is confirmed.
How geopolitical markets like this resolve
Geopolitical markets resolve on an international event — a ceasefire, a summit, a transit count, a diplomatic outcome — by a deadline. The price is a real-money read on an uncertain, fast-moving situation.
What could move it
Official statements, on-the-ground developments, sanctions, and diplomatic breakthroughs or breakdowns drive the moves. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 11% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 11¢ implies a 11% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Thursday, September 3; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every World market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all World odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
As of Thursday, September 3, Polymarket price December 31 at 11% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of December 31?
The prediction market implies a 11% chance of December 31 on Polymarket as of Thursday, September 3 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. A second venue listing is shown separately until W.E.T. confirms same-outcome equivalence.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-odds-2027-01-01?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-odds-2027-01-01">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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