Iran leader end of 2026? — Odds & Probability
By Corbin King · Updated September 2, 2026
As of September 2, 2026, the prediction market implies a 83% chance of Mojtaba Khamenei on Polymarket, with $39.1M in venue-reported volume.
This market is a constituent of theWorld Uncertainty— the published W.E.T. index it helps price.
Implied probability snapshot
Market favorite
Mojtaba Khamenei — market favorite
Polymarket · $39.1M reported volume
83%
Implied
Venue listing
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This W.E.T. observation is dated. Open Polymarket to verify later availability and price changes.
Driving coverage
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Odds — dated market snapshotas of September 2, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Mojtaba Khamenei | Polymarket | 83% | $6.4M |
No Head of State | Polymarket | 5% | $1.2M |
Reza Pahlavi | Polymarket | 3% | $676.8K |
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad | Polymarket | 2% | $1.1M |
Mohammad Khatami | Polymarket | 1% | $5.2M |
Seyed Hossein Mousavian | Polymarket | 1% | $3.7M |
Mostafa Pourmohammadi | Polymarket | 1% | $3.4M |
Hassan Shariatmadari | Polymarket | 1% | $3.1M |
Alireza Arafi | Polymarket | 1% | $2.3M |
Hassan Khomeini | Polymarket | 1% | $1.4M |
Masoud Pezeshkian | Polymarket | 1% | $1M |
Hassan Rouhani | Polymarket | 1% | $945K |
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | Polymarket | 1% | $920.2K |
Ali Motahari | Polymarket | 1% | $837.4K |
Abbas Araghchi | Polymarket | 1% | $833.7K |
Maryam Rajavi | Polymarket | 1% | $807.4K |
Ahmad Vahidi | Polymarket | 1% | $778.6K |
Sadegh Larijani | Polymarket | 1% | $542.9K |
Muhammad Mirbaqiri | Polymarket | 1% | $440.5K |
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel | Polymarket | 1% | $436.8K |
Massoud Rajavi | Polymarket | 1% | $399.8K |
Saeed Jalili | Polymarket | 1% | $393.3K |
Ali Asghar Hejazi | Polymarket | 1% | $345.4K |
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani | Polymarket | 1% | $306.9K |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the September 2, 2026 snapshot · 65/100 · Solid Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 30/30 | $39.1M in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 10/20 | 1 live wire headline lexically matched to this event — real, citable corroboration that the story is moving. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 24 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 attributable day tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
Citable signals (1)
Wire headlines retained with this event snapshot — corroboration behind the news component. Each link is the original source.
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
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Everything above stays free — the score, the component breakdown, any eligible confirmed comparison, and the methodology. W.E.T. Premium doesn't unlock a hidden number; it adds the tooling that turns a reading into a workflow: the Crowd–Market Gap Tracker, dated Index Desk reads and drivers, and the Community crowd–market gap value and direction.
Key takeaways
- One tracked Polymarket listing prices Mojtaba Khamenei at 83% implied probability.
- Polymarket reports $39.1M in venue-native event volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Wednesday, September 2 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices Iran leader end of 2026? at 83% implied probability on Polymarket as of Wednesday, September 2. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 30 tracked market rows, Polymarket reports $39.1M in venue-native event volume. Mojtaba Khamenei leads at 83%, a strong favorite, ahead of No Head of State at 5%. It currently trades on Polymarket; any related listing on another venue remains separate until identity is confirmed.
How geopolitical markets like this resolve
Geopolitical markets resolve on an international event — a ceasefire, a summit, a transit count, a diplomatic outcome — by a deadline. The price is a real-money read on an uncertain, fast-moving situation.
What could move it
Official statements, on-the-ground developments, sanctions, and diplomatic breakthroughs or breakdowns drive the moves. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 83% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 83¢ implies a 83% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Wednesday, September 2; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every World market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all World odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
Iran leader end of 2026?
As of Wednesday, September 2, Polymarket price Mojtaba Khamenei at 83% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Mojtaba Khamenei?
The prediction market implies a 83% chance of Mojtaba Khamenei on Polymarket as of Wednesday, September 2 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. A second venue listing is shown separately until W.E.T. confirms same-outcome equivalence.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/iran-leader-end-of-2026-odds-2026-12-31?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=iran-leader-end-of-2026-odds-2026-12-31">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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