Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? — Odds
By Corbin V King · Updated November 5, 2026
As of November 5, 2026, the prediction market implies a 99% chance of November 3 on Polymarket, with $45.6M in venue-reported volume.
This market is a constituent of theFlashpoint Watch— the published W.E.T. index it helps price.
Implied probability snapshot
Market favorite
November 3 — market favorite
Polymarket · $45.6M reported volume
99%
Implied
Venue listing
View the live market on Polymarket
This W.E.T. observation is dated. Open Polymarket to verify later availability and price changes.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →Timing — when the market expects this
Implied median
not by Nov 4
the curve never reaches 50% on the priced rungs
Steepest window
Dec 31 → Nov 2
+54 points, the biggest jump
Rungs
11
deadlines priced
These rungs disagree with each other — a nearer deadline is priced above a later one, which cannot both be true. Usually a stale quote on a thin rung. The points are shown; no curve is drawn through them.
Each point is a market: the probability this has happened by that date. The curve can only rise, so its steepest stretch is the window the market is pricing.
Odds — dated market snapshotas of November 5, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
November 5 | Polymarket | 99% | $512.8K |
November 4 | Polymarket | 99% | $504.3K |
November 2 | Polymarket | 99% | $483.7K |
November 3 | Polymarket | 99% | $478.9K |
November 6 | Polymarket | 98% | $348K |
November 7 | Polymarket | 95% | $548.2K |
November 15 | Polymarket | 81% | $905.6K |
November 22 | Polymarket | 69% | $163.2K |
November 30 | Polymarket | 63% | $917K |
December 15 | Polymarket | 52% | $196.9K |
December 31 | Polymarket | 45% | $1.7M |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the November 5, 2026 snapshot · 55/100 · Solid Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 30/30 | $45.6M in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 11 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 attributable day tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- One tracked Polymarket listing prices November 3 at 99% implied probability.
- Polymarket reports $45.6M in venue-native event volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Thursday, November 5 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? at 99% implied probability on Polymarket as of Thursday, November 5. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 11 tracked market rows, Polymarket reports $45.6M in venue-native event volume. November 3 leads at 99%, a strong favorite, ahead of November 4 at 99%. It currently trades on Polymarket; any related listing on another venue remains separate until identity is confirmed.
How geopolitical markets like this resolve
Geopolitical markets resolve on an international event — a ceasefire, a summit, a transit count, a diplomatic outcome — by a deadline. The price is a real-money read on an uncertain, fast-moving situation.
What could move it
Official statements, on-the-ground developments, sanctions, and diplomatic breakthroughs or breakdowns drive the moves. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 99% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 99¢ implies a 99% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Thursday, November 5; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every World market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all World odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through?
As of Thursday, November 5, Polymarket price November 3 at 99% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of November 3?
The prediction market implies a 99% chance of November 3 on Polymarket as of Thursday, November 5 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. A second venue listing is shown separately until W.E.T. confirms same-outcome equivalence.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
Related topics
How Prediction Market Odds Work: Reading Prices as Probabilities
Prediction market prices are implied probabilities. See how YES/NO contracts settle at $1, how order books set odds, and how spreads compare to vig.
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-odds-2026-12-31?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-odds-2026-12-31">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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