Next Fed rate hike? — Odds & Probability
By Corbin V King · Updated September 21, 2026
As of September 21, 2026, the prediction market implies a 94% chance of Before 2028 on Kalshi, with 22.6K contracts in venue-reported volume.
Implied probability snapshot
Market favorite
Before 2028 — market favorite
Kalshi · 22.6K contracts reported volume
94%
Implied
Venue listing
View the live market on Kalshi
This W.E.T. observation is dated. Open Kalshi to verify later availability and price changes.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →Odds — dated market snapshotas of September 21, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Before 2028 | Kalshi | 94% | 1.7K contracts |
Before July 2028 | Kalshi | 94% | 575 contracts |
Before 2029 | Kalshi | 93% | — |
Before July 2027 | Kalshi | 91% | 4.6K contracts |
Before 2027 | Kalshi | 85% | 15.6K contracts |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the September 21, 2026 snapshot · 28/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 10/30 | 22.6K venue-reported contracts. Contract counts are not converted to dollars, so this component remains at the documented neutral 10/30. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 8/15 | 5 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 attributable day tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
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Key takeaways
- One tracked Kalshi listing prices Before 2028 at 94% implied probability.
- Kalshi reports 22,612 contracts in venue-native event volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Monday, September 21 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices Next Fed rate hike? at 94% implied probability on Kalshi as of Monday, September 21. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 5 tracked market rows, Kalshi reports 22,612 contracts in venue-native event volume. Before 2028 leads at 94%, a strong favorite, ahead of Before July 2028 at 94%. It currently trades on Kalshi; any related listing on another venue remains separate until identity is confirmed.
How macro markets like this resolve
Macro markets price a scheduled release or policy decision — a Fed meeting, an inflation print, a jobs report. The implied probability tracks where the crowd expects the number or decision to land as forecasts and positioning shift.
What could move it
Fed communications, CPI and PCE prints, the monthly jobs report, and swings in rate-cut expectations drive the biggest moves here. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 94% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 94¢ implies a 94% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Monday, September 21; odds move continuously, so open Kalshi for the current line.
Track this and every Economy market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Economy odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
Next Fed rate hike?
As of Monday, September 21, Kalshi price Before 2028 at 94% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Before 2028?
The prediction market implies a 94% chance of Before 2028 on Kalshi as of Monday, September 21 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Kalshi. A second venue listing is shown separately until W.E.T. confirms same-outcome equivalence.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
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<iframe src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/embed/predictions/next-fed-rate-hike-odds-2027-01-01" width="480" height="200" style="border:0;max-width:100%" loading="lazy" title="Next Fed rate hike? — prediction market odds by World Event Trading"></iframe>
<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/next-fed-rate-hike-odds-2027-01-01?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=next-fed-rate-hike-odds-2027-01-01">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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