Topic
Iran Prediction Markets
The latest open-status Iran snapshot: "Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?" — a captured 8% implied probability for Yes on Polymarket; corpus through November 5, 2026.
Negotiation, sanctions, airspace, and escalation contracts provide dated, claim-specific observations of Iran-related geopolitical risk.
19
Open snapshots
$307.1M
Comparable USD vol.
29
Settled archives
OPEN · SNAPSHOT
Open-status Iran snapshotscorpus through November 5, 2026
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Yes · Polymarket · $2.1M vol
Iran coup attempt by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31, 2027 · Polymarket · $2.4M vol
Iran full airspace closure by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $11M vol
Iran leader end of 2026? — Odds & Probability
Mojtaba Khamenei · Polymarket · $40.8M vol
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? — Odds
November 3 · Polymarket · $45.6M vol
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? — Odds
December 31, 2026 · Polymarket · $1.4M vol
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? — Odds
October 31 · Polymarket · $40.7M vol
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $21.1M vol
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $3.7M vol
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? — Odds
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) · Polymarket · $1.5M vol
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by
Kazem Gharibabadi · Polymarket · $2.1M vol
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $22.4M vol
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — Odds
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Polymarket · $77.9M vol
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 · Polymarket · $18.5M vol
Iran Nuke before 2027? — Odds & Probability
Iran Nuke before 2027? · Polymarket · $1.6M vol
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? — Odds
Yes · Polymarket · $1.9M vol
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $7.9M vol
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $3.6M vol
Iran invades Kuwait by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Priced into these indexes
W.E.T. indexes that hold markets from the Iran board. The count is how many of this page’s contracts each one actually reads — the index is the story, these markets are its evidence.
ARCHIVE
Settled Iran markets
Final pre-close reads, frozen as permanent archives — see the full settled markets archive.
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? — Odds
Final read: December 31 · Polymarket · $3.5M vol
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? — Odds
Final read: October 28 · Polymarket · $28.1M vol
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? — Odds
Final read: October 31 · Polymarket · $2.6M vol
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week
Final read: September 4 · Polymarket · $4.1M vol
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...? — Odds
Final read: September 30 · Polymarket · $329K vol
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks
Final read: No Meeting by September 30 · Polymarket · $6.4M vol
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...? — Odds
Final read: September 30 · Polymarket · $312.2K vol
Will Iran target Jordan by...? — Odds & Probability
Final read: September 15 · Polymarket · $40.8K vol
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? — Odds
Final read: September 30 · Polymarket · $1.3M vol
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks
Final read: No Meeting by September 30 · Polymarket · $5.3M vol
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What does the latest Iran market snapshot record?
The latest open-status snapshot is "Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?", where one attributed Polymarket listing records a 8% implied probability for Yes. Across the corpus through November 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 19 open-status Iran market pages.
Which venues appear in W.E.T.'s Iran snapshots?
The open-status snapshots through November 5, 2026 are attributed to Polymarket. Each quote keeps its own rules and provenance; a numerical comparison is withheld until exact same-outcome identity is confirmed.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These implied probabilities are dated market-price observations, not current quotes or a forecast from W.E.T. Settled markets on this page are frozen archives of the final pre-close read.
W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. These implied probabilities are dated market-price observations, not current quotes, forecasts, or advice. See the methodology and disclaimer.