Topic
Iran Prediction Markets
The latest open-status Iran snapshot: "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile" — a captured 7% implied probability for December 31 on Polymarket; corpus through September 5, 2026.
Negotiation, sanctions, airspace, and escalation contracts provide dated, claim-specific observations of Iran-related geopolitical risk.
21
Open snapshots
$218.5M
Comparable USD vol.
15
Settled archives
OPEN · SNAPSHOT
Open-status Iran snapshotscorpus through September 5, 2026
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 · Polymarket · $17.9M vol
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $2.8M vol
Iran full airspace closure by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $9.3M vol
Iran leader end of 2026? — Odds & Probability
Mojtaba Khamenei · Polymarket · $39.2M vol
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? — Odds
October 31 · Polymarket · $1.5M vol
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? — Odds & Probability
September 30 · Polymarket · $1M vol
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks
No Meeting by September 30 · Polymarket · $5.5M vol
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $28.5M vol
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $17.1M vol
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $21.8M vol
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — Odds
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Polymarket · $64.8M vol
Will Iran target Jordan by...? — Odds & Probability
September 15 · Polymarket · $40.8K vol
Will Iran target Qatar by...? — Odds & Probability
September 30 · Polymarket · $115.2K vol
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $62.5K vol
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $329K vol
Will Iran target Ukraine by...? — Odds & Probability
September 30 · Polymarket · $494.2K vol
Iran invades Kuwait by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $1M vol
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $1.3M vol
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $312.2K vol
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks
No Meeting by September 30 · Polymarket · $5.3M vol
Will Iran target Oman by...? — Odds & Probability
September 30 · Polymarket · $28.5K vol
Priced into these indexes
W.E.T. indexes that hold markets from the Iran board. The count is how many of this page’s contracts each one actually reads — the index is the story, these markets are its evidence.
ARCHIVE
Settled Iran markets
Final pre-close reads, frozen as permanent archives — see the full settled markets archive.
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...? — Odds
Final read: August 31 · Polymarket · $297.3K vol
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? — Odds
Final read: August 31 · Polymarket · $26.4M vol
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by
Final read: Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani · Polymarket · $84.3K vol
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? — Odds
Final read: September 30 · Polymarket · $819.1K vol
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...? — Odds
Final read: August 31 · Polymarket · $248.3K vol
European military action against Iran by...? — Odds
Final read: August 31 · Polymarket · $307.7K vol
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
Final read: July 31 · Polymarket · $16.8M vol
Iran successfully targets shipping on...? — Odds
Final read: August 17 · Polymarket · $193.6K vol
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...? — Odds
Final read: December 31 · Polymarket · $239.7K vol
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What does the latest Iran market snapshot record?
The latest open-status snapshot is "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile", where one attributed Polymarket listing records a 7% implied probability for December 31. Across the corpus through September 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 21 open-status Iran market pages.
Which venues appear in W.E.T.'s Iran snapshots?
The open-status snapshots through September 5, 2026 are attributed to Polymarket. Each quote keeps its own rules and provenance; a numerical comparison is withheld until exact same-outcome identity is confirmed.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These implied probabilities are dated market-price observations, not current quotes or a forecast from W.E.T. Settled markets on this page are frozen archives of the final pre-close read.
W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. These implied probabilities are dated market-price observations, not current quotes, forecasts, or advice. See the methodology and disclaimer.