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Topic
The most-traded Iran market right now: "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? — Odds & Probability" — a 33% implied probability of December 31 on Polymarket, as of July 21, 2026.
Negotiations, sanctions, airspace, and escalation — Iran markets are where geopolitical risk gets a live number.
11
Live markets
$41.1M
Tracked volume
0
Settled archives
LIVE · NOW
December 31 · Polymarket · $10.8M vol
August 15 · Polymarket · $7.8M vol
August 31 · Polymarket · $7.1M vol
August 31 · Polymarket · $5.3M vol
No Meeting by September 30 · Polymarket · $3M vol
July 21 · Polymarket · $2.1M vol
August 31 · Polymarket · $2M vol
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.3M vol
August 31 · Polymarket · $708.9K vol
Yes · Polymarket · $679.3K vol
August 31 · Polymarket · $298.1K vol
FAQ
The most-traded live Iran market is "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? — Odds & Probability", where the market implies a 33% chance of December 31 on Polymarket. W.E.T. tracks 11 live Iran markets in total.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated US exchange) and Polymarket (crypto-native). W.E.T. aggregates both books in one place — implied probability, volume, and the cross-venue gap when the same market trades on both — as data, not advice.
No. Implied probability is a live market price — what traders are collectively paying — not a forecast from W.E.T. Settled markets on this page are frozen archives of the final pre-close read.
W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. Implied probabilities are live market prices, not forecasts or advice. See the methodology and disclaimer.