Topic
Strait of Hormuz Prediction Markets
The latest open-status Strait of Hormuz snapshot: "Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? — Odds & Probability" — a captured 28% implied probability for December 31 on Polymarket; corpus through September 5, 2026.
Shipping-transit contracts on the Strait of Hormuz capture specified windows and resolution rules for maritime-risk events.
7
Open snapshots
$25.6M
Comparable USD vol.
11
Settled archives
OPEN · SNAPSHOT
Open-status Strait of Hormuz snapshotscorpus through September 5, 2026
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $2.8M vol
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? — Odds
October 31 · Polymarket · $1.5M vol
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? — Odds & Probability
September 30 · Polymarket · $1M vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December
Yes · Polymarket · $10.4M vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September
Yes · Polymarket · $7.8M vol
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $781.3K vol
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $1.3M vol
Priced into these indexes
W.E.T. indexes that hold markets from the Strait of Hormuz board. The count is how many of this page’s contracts each one actually reads — the index is the story, these markets are its evidence.
ARCHIVE
Settled Strait of Hormuz markets
Final pre-close reads, frozen as permanent archives — see the full settled markets archive.
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? — Odds
Final read: August 31 · Polymarket · $768.5K vol
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of
Final read: 0-20 · Polymarket · $108K vol
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day
Final read: 30+ · Polymarket · $157.3K vol
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? — Odds
Final read: September 30 · Polymarket · $819.1K vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...? — Odds
Final read: August 31 · Polymarket · $22.7M vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Final read: Yes · Polymarket · $3.1M vol
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July
Final read: 0-20 · Polymarket · $302.7K vol
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? — Odds
Final read: August 31 · Polymarket · $494.8K vol
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day
Final read: 60+ · Polymarket · $1.8M vol
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What does the latest Strait of Hormuz market snapshot record?
The latest open-status snapshot is "Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? — Odds & Probability", where one attributed Polymarket listing records a 28% implied probability for December 31. Across the corpus through September 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 7 open-status Strait of Hormuz market pages.
Which venues appear in W.E.T.'s Strait of Hormuz snapshots?
The open-status snapshots through September 5, 2026 are attributed to Polymarket. Each quote keeps its own rules and provenance; a numerical comparison is withheld until exact same-outcome identity is confirmed.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These implied probabilities are dated market-price observations, not current quotes or a forecast from W.E.T. Settled markets on this page are frozen archives of the final pre-close read.
W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. These implied probabilities are dated market-price observations, not current quotes, forecasts, or advice. See the methodology and disclaimer.