Topic
Strait of Hormuz Prediction Markets
The latest open-status Strait of Hormuz snapshot: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December" — a captured 11% implied probability for Yes on Polymarket; corpus through November 5, 2026.
Shipping-transit contracts on the Strait of Hormuz capture specified windows and resolution rules for maritime-risk events.
7
Open snapshots
$41.6M
Comparable USD vol.
17
Settled archives
OPEN · SNAPSHOT
Open-status Strait of Hormuz snapshotscorpus through November 5, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December
Yes · Polymarket · $16.7M vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November
Yes · Polymarket · $1.5M vol
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $3.7M vol
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the
No Hormuz Agreement · Polymarket · $1.8M vol
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $3.6M vol
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
No Hormuz Agreement · Polymarket · $2.4M vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December
Yes · Polymarket · $11.8M vol
Priced into these indexes
W.E.T. indexes that hold markets from the Strait of Hormuz board. The count is how many of this page’s contracts each one actually reads — the index is the story, these markets are its evidence.
ARCHIVE
Settled Strait of Hormuz markets
Final pre-close reads, frozen as permanent archives — see the full settled markets archive.
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? — Odds
Final read: October 31 · Polymarket · $899.3K vol
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? — Odds
Final read: December 31 · Polymarket · $3.5M vol
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? — Odds
Final read: October 31 · Polymarket · $2.6M vol
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? — Odds
Final read: September 30 · Polymarket · $1.3M vol
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? — Odds
Final read: September 30 · Polymarket · $781.3K vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September
Final read: Yes · Polymarket · $9M vol
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? — Odds
Final read: August 31 · Polymarket · $768.5K vol
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of
Final read: 0-20 · Polymarket · $108K vol
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day
Final read: 30+ · Polymarket · $157.3K vol
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? — Odds
Final read: September 30 · Polymarket · $819.1K vol
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What does the latest Strait of Hormuz market snapshot record?
The latest open-status snapshot is "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December", where one attributed Polymarket listing records a 11% implied probability for Yes. Across the corpus through November 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 7 open-status Strait of Hormuz market pages.
Which venues appear in W.E.T.'s Strait of Hormuz snapshots?
The open-status snapshots through November 5, 2026 are attributed to Polymarket. Each quote keeps its own rules and provenance; a numerical comparison is withheld until exact same-outcome identity is confirmed.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These implied probabilities are dated market-price observations, not current quotes or a forecast from W.E.T. Settled markets on this page are frozen archives of the final pre-close read.
W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. These implied probabilities are dated market-price observations, not current quotes, forecasts, or advice. See the methodology and disclaimer.