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Topic
The most-traded Strait of Hormuz market right now: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?" — a 14% implied probability of Yes on Polymarket, as of July 20, 2026.
Shipping-transit markets on the world’s most important oil chokepoint — maritime risk, priced daily.
5
Live markets
$5.1M
Tracked volume
1
Settled archives
LIVE · NOW
Yes · Polymarket · $1.7M vol
30+ · Polymarket · $1.3M vol
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.3M vol
July 31 · Polymarket · $386.1K vol
0-20 · Polymarket · $218.8K vol
ARCHIVE
Final pre-close reads, frozen as permanent archives — see the full settled markets archive.
FAQ
The most-traded live Strait of Hormuz market is "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?", where the market implies a 14% chance of Yes on Polymarket. W.E.T. tracks 5 live Strait of Hormuz markets in total.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated US exchange) and Polymarket (crypto-native). W.E.T. aggregates both books in one place — implied probability, volume, and the cross-venue gap when the same market trades on both — as data, not advice.
No. Implied probability is a live market price — what traders are collectively paying — not a forecast from W.E.T. Settled markets on this page are frozen archives of the final pre-close read.
W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. Implied probabilities are live market prices, not forecasts or advice. See the methodology and disclaimer.