Topic
Russia–Ukraine Prediction Markets
The latest open-status Russia–Ukraine snapshot: "Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? — Odds & Probability" — a captured 54% implied probability for December 31, 2027 on Polymarket; corpus through November 5, 2026.
Ceasefire timelines, territorial lines, and diplomatic meetings — the war’s trajectory as tradable probabilities.
22
Open snapshots
$61.9M
Comparable USD vol.
29
Settled archives
OPEN · SNAPSHOT
Open-status Russia–Ukraine snapshotscorpus through November 5, 2026
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31, 2027 · Polymarket · $3.3M vol
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by...? — Odds
December 31, 2027 · Polymarket · $2.9M vol
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? — Odds
China · Polymarket · $2.3M vol
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027 · Polymarket · $4.1M vol
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? — Odds
Druzkhivka · Polymarket · $1.8M vol
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $2.3M vol
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? — Odds
Yes · Polymarket · $2.9M vol
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? — Odds
June 30, 2027 · Polymarket · $2.2M vol
NATO x Russia military clash by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $13.2M vol
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...? — Odds
December 31, 2026 · Polymarket · $5.6M vol
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Yes · Polymarket · $3.8M vol
When will Ukraine hold a presidential election? — Odds
Before 2030 · Kalshi · 24.3K contracts vol
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Odds & Probability
Before Jan 20, 2029 · Kalshi · 256.7K contracts vol
Will Russia capture Lyman by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $3.1M vol
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $2.1M vol
Ukraine election called by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31, 2026 · Polymarket · $1.9M vol
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
December 31, 2026 · Polymarket · $861.8K vol
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.2M vol
Russia nuclear test by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31, 2026 · Polymarket · $6.2M vol
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $986.4K vol
When will Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin meet together?
Before Jan 20, 2029 · Kalshi · 13.2K contracts vol
Priced into these indexes
W.E.T. indexes that hold markets from the Russia–Ukraine board. The count is how many of this page’s contracts each one actually reads — the index is the story, these markets are its evidence.
ARCHIVE
Settled Russia–Ukraine markets
Final pre-close reads, frozen as permanent archives — see the full settled markets archive.
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? — Odds
Final read: Yes · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? — Odds
Final read: Yes · Polymarket · $115.3K vol
Will Russia capture Shevchenko by...? — Odds
Final read: October 31 · Polymarket · $53.6K vol
Will Russia capture Svitle by...? — Odds & Probability
Final read: October 31 · Polymarket · $57.8K vol
Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...? — Odds
Final read: October 31 · Polymarket · $133.6K vol
Will Russia capture Toretske by...? — Odds & Probability
Final read: October 31 · Polymarket · $153.5K vol
Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...? — Odds
Final read: October 31 · Polymarket · $120.8K vol
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...? — Odds
Final read: September 30 · Polymarket · $123.2K vol
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...? — Odds
Final read: September 30 · Polymarket · $117.4K vol
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by...? — Odds
Final read: September 30 · Polymarket · $138.1K vol
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What does the latest Russia–Ukraine market snapshot record?
The latest open-status snapshot is "Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? — Odds & Probability", where one attributed Polymarket listing records a 54% implied probability for December 31, 2027. Across the corpus through November 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 22 open-status Russia–Ukraine market pages.
Which venues appear in W.E.T.'s Russia–Ukraine snapshots?
The open-status snapshots through November 5, 2026 are attributed to Kalshi and Polymarket. Each quote keeps its own rules and provenance; a numerical comparison is withheld until exact same-outcome identity is confirmed.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These implied probabilities are dated market-price observations, not current quotes or a forecast from W.E.T. Settled markets on this page are frozen archives of the final pre-close read.
W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. These implied probabilities are dated market-price observations, not current quotes, forecasts, or advice. See the methodology and disclaimer.