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Topic
The most-traded Russia–Ukraine market right now: "Will Russia enter Orikhiv by...? — Odds & Probability" — a 14% implied probability of September 30 on Polymarket, as of July 15, 2026.
Ceasefire timelines, territorial lines, and diplomatic meetings — the war’s trajectory as tradable probabilities.
5
Live markets
$1.3M
Tracked volume
0
Settled archives
LIVE · NOW
September 30 · Polymarket · $377.2K vol
Decrease · Polymarket · $337.6K vol
August 31 · Polymarket · $246K vol
Yes · Polymarket · $158.7K vol
325–339 · Polymarket · $146.6K vol
FAQ
The most-traded live Russia–Ukraine market is "Will Russia enter Orikhiv by...? — Odds & Probability", where the market implies a 14% chance of September 30 on Polymarket. W.E.T. tracks 5 live Russia–Ukraine markets in total.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated US exchange) and Polymarket (crypto-native). W.E.T. aggregates both books in one place — implied probability, volume, and the cross-venue gap when the same market trades on both — as data, not advice.
No. Implied probability is a live market price — what traders are collectively paying — not a forecast from W.E.T. Settled markets on this page are frozen archives of the final pre-close read.
W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. Implied probabilities are live market prices, not forecasts or advice. See the methodology and disclaimer.