Topic
Russia–Ukraine Prediction Markets
The latest open-status Russia–Ukraine snapshot: "Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? — Odds" — a captured 30% implied probability for Yes on Polymarket; corpus through September 5, 2026.
Ceasefire timelines, territorial lines, and diplomatic meetings — the war’s trajectory as tradable probabilities.
31
Open snapshots
$27.5M
Comparable USD vol.
6
Settled archives
OPEN · SNAPSHOT
Open-status Russia–Ukraine snapshotscorpus through September 5, 2026
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? — Odds
Yes · Polymarket · $309.6K vol
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.6M vol
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027 · Polymarket · $3.3M vol
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? — Odds
December 31 · Polymarket · $1.6M vol
Will Russia capture Lyman by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $3M vol
NATO x Russia military clash by...? — Odds & Probability
December 31 · Polymarket · $6.7M vol
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? — Odds
Yes · Polymarket · $2.7M vol
Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Odds & Probability
Before Jan 20, 2029 · Kalshi · 209.7K contracts vol
Bank of Russia decision in September 2026? — Odds
No Change · Polymarket · $129.3K vol
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
Yes · Polymarket · $295.4K vol
Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place — Odds
Yes · Polymarket · $440.4K vol
United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative
325–339 · Polymarket · $322.8K vol
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $123.2K vol
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Yes · Polymarket · $3.1M vol
How many seats will United Russia win in the next
325–339 · Polymarket · $290.1K vol
Will Iran target Ukraine by...? — Odds & Probability
September 30 · Polymarket · $494.2K vol
Will Russia capture Shevchenko by...? — Odds
October 31 · Polymarket · $53.6K vol
Will Russia capture Svitle by...? — Odds & Probability
October 31 · Polymarket · $57.8K vol
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? — Odds
Yes · Polymarket · $115.3K vol
Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...? — Odds
October 31 · Polymarket · $133.6K vol
Will Russia capture Toretske by...? — Odds & Probability
October 31 · Polymarket · $153.5K vol
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $117.4K vol
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $138.1K vol
Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $93.2K vol
Will Russia capture Stavky by...? — Odds & Probability
September 30 · Polymarket · $123.9K vol
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...? — Odds & Probability
September 30 · Polymarket · $142.3K vol
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $86.4K vol
Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...? — Odds
October 31 · Polymarket · $120.8K vol
Will Russia enter Borova by...? — Odds & Probability
September 30 · Polymarket · $288.3K vol
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by...? — Odds & Probability
September 30 · Polymarket · $393.5K vol
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...? — Odds
September 30 · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Priced into these indexes
W.E.T. indexes that hold markets from the Russia–Ukraine board. The count is how many of this page’s contracts each one actually reads — the index is the story, these markets are its evidence.
ARCHIVE
Settled Russia–Ukraine markets
Final pre-close reads, frozen as permanent archives — see the full settled markets archive.
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?
Final read: August 31 · Polymarket · $35.3K vol
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?
Final read: Yes · Polymarket · $288.6K vol
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...? — Odds
Final read: December 31 · Polymarket · $569.4K vol
Will Russia target Kyiv on...? — Odds & Probability
Final read: August 29 · Polymarket · $84.4K vol
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by...? — Odds
Final read: August 31 · Polymarket · $232.3K vol
Bank of Russia decision in July 2026? — Odds
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What does the latest Russia–Ukraine market snapshot record?
The latest open-status snapshot is "Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? — Odds", where one attributed Polymarket listing records a 30% implied probability for Yes. Across the corpus through September 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 31 open-status Russia–Ukraine market pages.
Which venues appear in W.E.T.'s Russia–Ukraine snapshots?
The open-status snapshots through September 5, 2026 are attributed to Kalshi and Polymarket. Each quote keeps its own rules and provenance; a numerical comparison is withheld until exact same-outcome identity is confirmed.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These implied probabilities are dated market-price observations, not current quotes or a forecast from W.E.T. Settled markets on this page are frozen archives of the final pre-close read.
W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. These implied probabilities are dated market-price observations, not current quotes, forecasts, or advice. See the methodology and disclaimer.