Topic
China Prediction Markets
The latest open-status China snapshot: "China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? — Odds" — a captured 2% implied probability for Yes on Polymarket; corpus through November 5, 2026.
Growth prints, Taiwan risk, and trade — China markets put numbers on the biggest macro wildcard.
8
Open snapshots
$95.1M
Comparable USD vol.
4
Settled archives
OPEN · SNAPSHOT
Open-status China snapshotscorpus through November 5, 2026
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? — Odds
Yes · Polymarket · $3.5M vol
China x Japan military clash before 2027? — Odds
Yes · Polymarket · $1.5M vol
Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?
Before Jan 1, 2030 · Kalshi · 306.7K contracts vol
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? — Odds & Probability
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
China Annual GDP Growth 2026 — Odds & Probability
4.0–5.0% · Polymarket · $944.2K vol
Will Trump recognize Taiwan? — Odds & Probability
Before Jan 20, 2029 · Kalshi · 38.7K contracts vol
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? — Odds
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Polymarket · $45.7M vol
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? — Odds
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Polymarket · $42.3M vol
ARCHIVE
Settled China markets
Final pre-close reads, frozen as permanent archives — see the full settled markets archive.
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026? — Odds & Probability
Final read: 4.3-4.6% · Polymarket · $29.4K vol
People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?
Final read: No Change · Polymarket · $49.8K vol
Valorant: All Gamers vs Trace Esports (BO3) - VCT China
Final read: Match Winner · Polymarket · $158.6K vol
Valorant: TYLOO vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - VCT China
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What does the latest China market snapshot record?
The latest open-status snapshot is "China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? — Odds", where one attributed Polymarket listing records a 2% implied probability for Yes. Across the corpus through November 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 8 open-status China market pages.
Which venues appear in W.E.T.'s China snapshots?
The open-status snapshots through November 5, 2026 are attributed to Kalshi and Polymarket. Each quote keeps its own rules and provenance; a numerical comparison is withheld until exact same-outcome identity is confirmed.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These implied probabilities are dated market-price observations, not current quotes or a forecast from W.E.T. Settled markets on this page are frozen archives of the final pre-close read.
W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. These implied probabilities are dated market-price observations, not current quotes, forecasts, or advice. See the methodology and disclaimer.