Topic
Federal Reserve Prediction Markets
The latest open-status Federal Reserve snapshot: "Another Fed rate hike in 2026? — Odds & Probability" — a captured 78% implied probability for Another Fed rate hike in 2026? on Polymarket; corpus through November 5, 2026.
Dated observations on Fed decisions connect captured rate-path prices with CPI releases, jobs reports, and FOMC statements. Each listing keeps its own venue and resolution terms.
14
Open snapshots
$100.7M
Comparable USD vol.
8
Settled archives
OPEN · SNAPSHOT
Open-status Federal Reserve snapshotscorpus through November 5, 2026
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? — Odds & Probability
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? · Polymarket · $1.4M vol
Fed Decision in December 2026? — Odds & Probability
25 bps increase · Polymarket · $13M vol
Fed Decision in January 2027? — Odds & Probability
No change · Polymarket · $1.2M vol
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? — Odds & Probability
↑ 4.25% · Polymarket · $1.9M vol
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? — Odds & Probability
2 (50 bps) · Polymarket · $1.5M vol
Next Fed rate hike? — Odds & Probability
Before 2029 · Kalshi · 187.9K contracts vol
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? — Odds
4.25% · Polymarket · $7.1M vol
Next Fed rate cut? — Odds & Probability
Before 2029 · Kalshi
Fed rate cut by...? — Odds & Probability
July 2027 Meeting · Polymarket · $3.7M vol
Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair? — Odds & Probability
Before Jan 1, 2031 · Kalshi · 8.2K contracts vol
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? — Odds & Probability
0 (0 bps) · Polymarket · $53.1M vol
Fed Decision in December 2026? — Odds & Probability
25 bps increase · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? — Odds
4.25% · Polymarket · $6.9M vol
Fed rate hike in 2026? — Odds & Probability
Fed rate hike in 2026? · Polymarket · $9.8M vol
Priced into these indexes
W.E.T. indexes that hold markets from the Federal Reserve board. The count is how many of this page’s contracts each one actually reads — the index is the story, these markets are its evidence.
ARCHIVE
Settled Federal Reserve markets
Final pre-close reads, frozen as permanent archives — see the full settled markets archive.
Fed Decision in October 2026? — Odds & Probability
Final read: No change · Polymarket · $85.4M vol
Fed Decision in October 2026? — Odds & Probability
Final read: 25 bps increase · Polymarket · $8.4M vol
Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) — Odds & Probability
Final read: Other · Polymarket · $733.7K vol
Fed rate hike by...? — Odds & Probability
Final read: October Meeting · Polymarket · $3.7M vol
Fed Decision in September 2026? — Odds & Probability
Final read: 25 bps increase · Polymarket · $190.5M vol
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) — Odds & Probability
Final read: Other · Polymarket · $823K vol
Fed Decision in July 2026? — Odds & Probability
Fed decisions (Apr-Jul) — Odds & Probability
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What does the latest Federal Reserve market snapshot record?
The latest open-status snapshot is "Another Fed rate hike in 2026? — Odds & Probability", where one attributed Polymarket listing records a 78% implied probability for Another Fed rate hike in 2026?. Across the corpus through November 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 14 open-status Federal Reserve market pages.
Which venues appear in W.E.T.'s Federal Reserve snapshots?
The open-status snapshots through November 5, 2026 are attributed to Kalshi and Polymarket. Each quote keeps its own rules and provenance; a numerical comparison is withheld until exact same-outcome identity is confirmed.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These implied probabilities are dated market-price observations, not current quotes or a forecast from W.E.T. Settled markets on this page are frozen archives of the final pre-close read.
W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. These implied probabilities are dated market-price observations, not current quotes, forecasts, or advice. See the methodology and disclaimer.