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Topic
The most-traded Federal Reserve market right now: "Fed Decision in July 2026? — Odds & Probability" — a 86% implied probability of No change on Polymarket, as of July 22, 2026.
Markets on Fed rate decisions reprice with every CPI print, jobs report, and FOMC statement — often faster than economist consensus moves. The Fed funds path is the single most-watched macro market on both venues.
6
Live markets
$89M
Tracked volume
0
Settled archives
LIVE · NOW
No change · Polymarket · $82M vol
25 bps increase · Polymarket · $4M vol
October Meeting · Polymarket · $1.4M vol
Pause–Pause–Pause · Polymarket · $803.7K vol
Other · Polymarket · $454.2K vol
Other · Polymarket · $355.7K vol
FAQ
The most-traded live Federal Reserve market is "Fed Decision in July 2026? — Odds & Probability", where the market implies a 86% chance of No change on Polymarket. W.E.T. tracks 6 live Federal Reserve markets in total.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated US exchange) and Polymarket (crypto-native). W.E.T. aggregates both books in one place — implied probability, volume, and the cross-venue gap when the same market trades on both — as data, not advice.
No. Implied probability is a live market price — what traders are collectively paying — not a forecast from W.E.T. Settled markets on this page are frozen archives of the final pre-close read.
W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. Implied probabilities are live market prices, not forecasts or advice. See the methodology and disclaimer.