Fed Decision in July 2026? — Odds & Probability
By Corbin V King · Updated July 31, 2026
Final prediction market odds for Fed Decision in July 2026: No change closed at 76% implied probability on Polymarket. Settled-market archive — how the odds…
What this snapshot recorded
Market expects
No change · 76%
the modal outcome
Either side
2% / 25%
below / above that decision
Outcomes priced
5
across 3 scheduled dates
Across the horizon
Each column is one scheduled date, stacked by outcome. A tick marks a release that has already happened.
This release
Implied probability per outcome at the stated observation date. This is not the released figure, which W.E.T. does not source, and it is not a later venue read.
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled July 31, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
No change | Polymarket | 76% | $34.3M |
50+ bps increase | Polymarket | 1% | $24.1M |
25 bps decrease | Polymarket | 1% | $23.5M |
25 bps increase | Polymarket | 24% | $23.3M |
50+ bps decrease | Polymarket | 1% | $21.1M |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 32/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 0/30 | No positive venue-reported volume was available at snapshot time. |
| News corroboration | 16/20 | 2 live wire headlines lexically matched to this event — real, citable corroboration that the story is moving. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 8/15 | 5 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
Citable signals (2)
Wire headlines retained with this event snapshot — corroboration behind the news component. Each link is the original source.
- The Cuban Throwing Parties to Fight for Political Change
New York Times · Jul 29, 2026
- Julie Masino, Cracker Barrel CEO Who Oversaw Logo Change, Steps Down
New York Times · Jul 27, 2026
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Read it here. Act on it with the desk.
Everything above stays free — the score, the component breakdown, any eligible confirmed comparison, and the methodology. W.E.T. Premium doesn't unlock a hidden number; it adds the tooling that turns a reading into a workflow: the Crowd–Market Gap Tracker, dated Index Desk reads and drivers, and the Community crowd–market gap value and direction.
Key takeaways
- Final market read: No change at 76% implied probability on Polymarket.
- The odds moved from 92% at the start of coverage to 76% at close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 76% implied probability for No change on Polymarket.
The market's final read
The market's final lean was No change at 76% — favored, but not a lock. No attributable venue-native volume is published for this observation.
How the odds moved
W.E.T. tracked this market for 16 days: No change opened our coverage at 92%, ranged between 75% and 96%, and closed at 76%. Implied probability is the market's price read as a percentage — a live, venue-attributed estimate that repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Economy odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Fed Decision in July 2026?
The market closed with No change at 76% implied probability on Polymarket. That was the final venue-attributed read before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Fed Decision in July 2026 right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 76% for No change. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
Markets & sources
Related topics
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This page is archival. Use the Event Dashboard to inspect separately dated, venue-attributed listings; numerical comparisons remain identity-gated.