Loading…
Topic
The most-traded S&P 500 market right now: "What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in July 2026? — Odds" — a 39% implied probability of ↓ $730 on Polymarket, as of July 22, 2026.
Equity index markets price where the S&P 500 (SPY) closes — a prediction-market read on risk appetite that trades alongside the index itself.
1
Live markets
$373.4K
Tracked volume
0
Settled archives
LIVE · NOW
FAQ
The most-traded live S&P 500 market is "What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in July 2026? — Odds", where the market implies a 39% chance of ↓ $730 on Polymarket. W.E.T. tracks 1 live S&P 500 market in total.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated US exchange) and Polymarket (crypto-native). W.E.T. aggregates both books in one place — implied probability, volume, and the cross-venue gap when the same market trades on both — as data, not advice.
No. Implied probability is a live market price — what traders are collectively paying — not a forecast from W.E.T. Settled markets on this page are frozen archives of the final pre-close read.
W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. Implied probabilities are live market prices, not forecasts or advice. See the methodology and disclaimer.