SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 — Odds & Probability
By Corbin V King · Updated July 21, 2026
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13: the prediction market implies 93% on Polymarket. Dated Polymarket odds, volume, and how to read them.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →Timing — when the market expects this
Implied median
Jul 23
where the market crosses even odds
Steepest window
Jul 23 → Jul 31
+11 points, the biggest jump
Rungs
3
deadlines priced
Each point is a market: the probability this has happened by that date. The curve can only rise, so its steepest stretch is the window the market is pricing.
Fetched venue snapshot — market navigation
One cached fetch of the venue-attributed rows W.E.T. matched to this event. Filter the returned rows by type; this panel does not poll, subscribe, or claim exhaustive venue coverage.
Odds — dated market snapshotas of July 21, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Super Heavy booster explodes? | Polymarket | 81% | $123.2K |
July 31 | Polymarket | 89% | $87.2K |
August 31 | Polymarket | 93% | $37.5K |
Successful splash down? | Polymarket | 72% | $31.5K |
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | Polymarket | 1% | $30.6K |
July 23 | Polymarket | 78% | $29.4K |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the July 21, 2026 snapshot · 17/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 0/30 | No positive venue-reported volume was available at snapshot time. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 9/15 | 6 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Read it here. Act on it with the desk.
Everything above stays free — the score, the component breakdown, any eligible confirmed comparison, and the methodology. W.E.T. Premium doesn't unlock a hidden number; it adds the tooling that turns a reading into a workflow: the Crowd–Market Gap Tracker, dated Index Desk reads and drivers, and the Community crowd–market gap value and direction.
Key takeaways
- Prediction markets price August 31 at 93% implied probability on Polymarket.
- No attributable venue-native volume is published for this observation.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Tuesday, July 21 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 at 93% implied probability on Polymarket as of Tuesday, July 21. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
No attributable venue-native volume is published for this observation. August 31 leads at 93%, a strong favorite, ahead of July 31 at 89%. It currently trades on Polymarket; a related listing on another venue remains separate until exact identity is confirmed.
How tech markets like this resolve
Tech markets resolve on a company milestone, product launch, regulatory ruling, or AI benchmark by a deadline. The price reflects the crowd’s read on whether it ships or clears in time.
What could move it
Earnings, product announcements, antitrust and regulatory decisions, and model or chip releases are the catalysts. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 93% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 93¢ implies a 93% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Tuesday, July 21; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Tech market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Tech odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13?
As of Tuesday, July 21, Polymarket price August 31 at 93% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of August 31?
The prediction market implies a 93% chance of August 31 on Polymarket as of Tuesday, July 21 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. This dated snapshot records Polymarket only. W.E.T. publishes no cross-venue comparison without the same event, outcome, and resolution terms observed on another venue.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a reflection of what traders are collectively paying, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
How Prediction Market Odds Work: Reading Prices as Probabilities
Prediction market prices are implied probabilities. See how YES/NO contracts settle at $1, how order books set odds, and how spreads compare to vig.
Read on the WireW.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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