Gemini 4.0 released by...? — Odds & Probability
By Corbin V King · Updated October 13, 2026
As of October 13, 2026, the prediction market implies a 99% chance of October 31 on Polymarket, with $1.7M in venue-reported volume.
Implied probability snapshot
Market favorite
October 31 — market favorite
Polymarket · $1.7M reported volume
99%
Implied
Venue listing
View the live market on Polymarket
This W.E.T. observation is dated. Open Polymarket to verify later availability and price changes.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →Timing — when the market expects this
Implied median
Oct 13
where the market crosses even odds
Steepest window
Oct 13 → Oct 14
+8 points, the biggest jump
Rungs
7
deadlines priced
Each point is a market: the probability this has happened by that date. The curve can only rise, so its steepest stretch is the window the market is pricing.
Odds — dated market snapshotas of October 13, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
October 31 | Polymarket | 99% | $260.5K |
November 30 | Polymarket | 99% | $63.8K |
October 23 | Polymarket | 95% | $31.6K |
October 15 | Polymarket | 94% | $233.4K |
October 16 | Polymarket | 94% | $36.9K |
October 14 | Polymarket | 92% | $49.7K |
October 13 | Polymarket | 84% | $70K |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the October 13, 2026 snapshot · 51/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 30/30 | $1.7M in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 11/15 | 7 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 attributable day tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- One tracked Polymarket listing prices October 31 at 99% implied probability.
- Polymarket reports $1.7M in venue-native event volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Tuesday, October 13 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices Gemini 4.0 released by...? at 99% implied probability on Polymarket as of Tuesday, October 13. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 7 tracked market rows, Polymarket reports $1.7M in venue-native event volume. October 31 leads at 99%, a strong favorite, ahead of November 30 at 99%. It currently trades on Polymarket; any related listing on another venue remains separate until identity is confirmed.
How tech markets like this resolve
Tech markets resolve on a company milestone, product launch, regulatory ruling, or AI benchmark by a deadline. The price reflects the crowd’s read on whether it ships or clears in time.
What could move it
Earnings, product announcements, antitrust and regulatory decisions, and model or chip releases are the catalysts. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 99% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 99¢ implies a 99% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Tuesday, October 13; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Tech market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Tech odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
Gemini 4.0 released by?
As of Tuesday, October 13, Polymarket price October 31 at 99% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of October 31?
The prediction market implies a 99% chance of October 31 on Polymarket as of Tuesday, October 13 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. A second venue listing is shown separately until W.E.T. confirms same-outcome equivalence.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
Related topics
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