Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner — Odds & Probability
By Corbin V King · Updated September 11, 2026
As of September 11, 2026, the prediction market implies a 64% chance of Julianne Moore on Polymarket, with $130.1K in venue-reported volume.
This market is a constituent of theAwards Race— the published W.E.T. index it helps price.
Implied probability snapshot
Market favorite
Julianne Moore — market favorite
Polymarket · $130.1K reported volume
64%
Implied
Venue listing
View the live market on Polymarket
This W.E.T. observation is dated. Open Polymarket to verify later availability and price changes.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →The slate at this observation
Ceremony
Oscars 2027
15 categories priced
Still contested
5
inside 15 points
Tightest
+4
Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
Contested- The Odyssey28%
- The Black Ball24%
- The Invite22%
- Project Hail Mary7%
- Ink6%
- Wildwood6%
+4 pt margin · 15 nominees · 9 more
Best Original Screenplay Winner
Contested- The Debut37%
- Wild Horse Nine33%
- Obsession10%
- Elsinore7%
- Digger4%
- The Drama4%
+4 pt margin · 17 nominees · 11 more
Best Actor Winner
Contested- John Malkovich30%
- Matt Damon26%
- Andrew Scott18%
- Tom Cruise16%
- Robert Pattinson9%
- Ryan Gosling2%
+4 pt margin · 18 nominees · 12 more
Best Documentary Feature Film Winner
Contested- American Doctor18%
- Once Upon a Time in Harlem12%
- One in a Million7%
- Musk5%
- Tutu4%
- Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party4%
+6 pt margin · 7 nominees · 1 more
Best Animated Feature Film Winner
Contested- Wildwood42%
- Toy Story 535%
- Tangles7%
- Forgotten Island6%
- Hoppers5%
- Ray Gunn5%
+7 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Best Supporting Actress Winner
Clear favourite- Anne Hathaway37%
- Penélope Cruz14%
- Mariana di Girolamo12%
- Sandra Hüller6%
- Betty Gilpin6%
- Zendaya6%
+23 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
Best Visual Effects Winner
Clear favourite- Dune: Part Three54%
- Project Hail Mary26%
- The Odyssey11%
- Godzilla Minus Zero10%
- Avengers: Doomsday3%
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day3%
+28 pt margin · 6 nominees
Best Picture Winner
Clear favourite- The Odyssey50%
- Dune: Part Three16%
- La Bola Negra12%
- Wild Horse Nine8%
- The Debut8%
- Digger6%
+34 pt margin · 22 nominees · 16 more
Best Cinematography Winner
Clear favourite- The Odyssey61%
- Dune: Part Three25%
- Project Hail Mary9%
- Digger7%
- Werwulf4%
- The Adventures of Cliff Booth2%
+36 pt margin · 10 nominees · 4 more
Best Casting Winner
Decided- The Odyssey54%
- The Black Ball14%
- UNABOMBER10%
- Clarissa8%
- Being Heumann7%
- Obsession6%
+40 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
Best Supporting Actor Winner
Decided- Paul Giamatti49%
- Robert Pattinson9%
- Miles Teller9%
- Michael Fassbender9%
- Guy Pearce7%
- Sam Rockwell7%
+40 pt margin · 22 nominees · 16 more
Best Director Winner
Decided- Christopher Nolan64%
- Denis Villeneuve21%
- Alejandro G. Iñárritu8%
- Martin McDonagh5%
- Phil Lord or Christopher Miller5%
- Jesse Eisenberg4%
+43 pt margin · 14 nominees · 8 more
Best Original Score Winner
Decided- The Odyssey59%
- Dune: Part Three14%
- Disclosure Day7%
- Project Hail Mary6%
- The Black Ball6%
- Whalefall4%
+45 pt margin · 12 nominees · 6 more
Best Actress Winner
Decided- Julianne Moore64%
- Inde Navarrette18%
- Renate Reinsve10%
- Sandra Hüller8%
- Virginie Efira2%
- Léa Seydoux1%
+46 pt margin · 11 nominees · 5 more
Best International Feature Film Winner
Decided- The Black Ball68%
- Possible Love8%
- Fatherland7%
- All of a Sudden6%
- Fjord4%
- Coward1%
+60 pt margin · 15 nominees · 9 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Odds — dated market snapshotas of September 11, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Julianne Moore | Polymarket | 64% | $88.3K |
Inde Navarrette | Polymarket | 18% | $23.2K |
Renate Reinsve | Polymarket | 10% | $12.6K |
Sandra Hüller | Polymarket | 8% | $3.5K |
Virginie Efira | Polymarket | 2% | $173 |
Léa Seydoux | Polymarket | 1% | $842 |
Ruth Madeley | Polymarket | 1% | $683 |
Michelle Williams | Polymarket | 1% | $255 |
Rachel Brosnahan | Polymarket | 1% | $207 |
Scarlett Johansson | Polymarket | 1% | $169 |
Sophie Okonedo | Polymarket | 1% | $145 |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the September 11, 2026 snapshot · 59/100 · Solid Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 21/30 | $130.1K in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 11 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 15/15 | 14 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- One tracked Polymarket listing prices Julianne Moore at 64% implied probability.
- Polymarket reports $130K in venue-native event volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Friday, September 11 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner at 64% implied probability on Polymarket as of Friday, September 11. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 11 tracked market rows, Polymarket reports $130K in venue-native event volume. Julianne Moore leads at 64%, a clear favorite, ahead of Inde Navarrette at 18%. It currently trades on Polymarket; any related listing on another venue remains separate until identity is confirmed.
How entertainment markets like this resolve
Entertainment markets resolve on a public result — an awards outcome, a box-office figure, a release. The price is what traders pay for each result before it’s known.
What could move it
Nominations, review embargoes and early tracking, release schedules, and audience buzz drive the moves. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 64% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 64¢ implies a 64% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Friday, September 11; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Entertainment market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Entertainment odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner?
As of Friday, September 11, Polymarket price Julianne Moore at 64% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Julianne Moore?
The prediction market implies a 64% chance of Julianne Moore on Polymarket as of Friday, September 11 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. A second venue listing is shown separately until W.E.T. confirms same-outcome equivalence.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/oscars-2027-best-actress-winner-odds-2027-03-14?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=oscars-2027-best-actress-winner-odds-2027-03-14">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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