Oscars 2027: Best International Feature Film Winner
By Corbin King · Updated August 27, 2026
As of August 27, 2026, the prediction market implies a 67% chance of The Black Ball on Polymarket, on $9.1K in traded volume.
Implied probability & market prediction
Market favorite
The Black Ball — market favorite
Polymarket · $9.1K traded
67%
Implied
Live market
View the live market on Polymarket
Prices move continuously — open Polymarket for the current line.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →The slate — where it is still open
Ceremony
Oscars 2027
15 categories priced
Still contested
4
inside 15 points
Tightest
+0
Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
Contested- The Black Ball26%
- The Odyssey26%
- The Invite22%
- Wildwood9%
- Project Hail Mary8%
- Dune: Part Three8%
+0 pt margin · 15 nominees · 9 more
Best Actor Winner
Contested- Matt Damon27%
- Tom Cruise27%
- Andrew Scott16%
- John Malkovich8%
- Robert Pattinson7%
- Sebastian Stan3%
+0 pt margin · 18 nominees · 12 more
Best Documentary Feature Film Winner
Contested- American Doctor18%
- One in a Million14%
- Nuisance Bear13%
- Once Upon a Time in Harlem13%
- Tutu7%
- Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party7%
+4 pt margin · 7 nominees · 1 more
Best Actress Winner
Contested- Julianne Moore27%
- Inde Navarrette17%
- Renate Reinsve14%
- Sandra Hüller12%
- Ruth Madeley6%
- Sophie Okonedo6%
+10 pt margin · 11 nominees · 5 more
Best Supporting Actor Winner
Clear favourite- Paul Giamatti28%
- Robert Pattinson9%
- John Goodman8%
- Sam Rockwell7%
- Robert De Niro5%
- Colman Domingo4%
+19 pt margin · 22 nominees · 16 more
Best Original Screenplay Winner
Clear favourite- Wild Horse Nine35%
- Obsession12%
- The Debut12%
- Digger10%
- Fjord7%
- The Adventures of Cliff Booth7%
+23 pt margin · 17 nominees · 11 more
Best Supporting Actress Winner
Clear favourite- Anne Hathaway40%
- Penélope Cruz12%
- Sandra Hüller8%
- Mariana di Girolamo7%
- Betty Gilpin7%
- Parker Posey7%
+28 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
Best Original Score Winner
Clear favourite- The Odyssey42%
- Dune: Part Three13%
- Project Hail Mary12%
- Disclosure Day7%
- The Black Ball4%
- The Adventures of Cliff Booth3%
+29 pt margin · 12 nominees · 6 more
Best Visual Effects Winner
Clear favourite- Dune: Part Three55%
- Project Hail Mary26%
- The Odyssey11%
- Godzilla Minus Zero10%
- Avengers: Doomsday3%
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day3%
+29 pt margin · 6 nominees
Best Animated Feature Film Winner
Clear favourite- Wildwood56%
- Toy Story 523%
- Forgotten Island9%
- Hoppers8%
- Ray Gunn7%
- Tangles1%
+33 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Best Cinematography Winner
Clear favourite- The Odyssey61%
- Dune: Part Three25%
- Project Hail Mary12%
- Werwulf3%
- The Adventures of Cliff Booth3%
- Digger1%
+36 pt margin · 10 nominees · 4 more
Best International Feature Film Winner
Clear favourite- The Black Ball67%
- Fjord28%
- All of a Sudden6%
- The Beloved3%
- Rose3%
- Minotaur3%
+39 pt margin · 15 nominees · 9 more
Best Casting Winner
Decided- The Odyssey54%
- The Black Ball14%
- UNABOMBER10%
- Clarissa8%
- Being Heumann7%
- Obsession6%
+40 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
Best Picture Winner
Decided- The Odyssey55%
- Dune: Part Three14%
- Wild Horse Nine9%
- La Bola Negra9%
- Fjord7%
- Digger6%
+41 pt margin · 22 nominees · 16 more
Best Director Winner
Decided- Christopher Nolan66%
- Alejandro G. Iñárritu14%
- Denis Villeneuve14%
- Jesse Eisenberg4%
- Aaron Sorkin4%
- Lance Oppenheim3%
+52 pt margin · 14 nominees · 8 more
Every category decided the same night, tightest race first. The lower bar is the runner-up — the gap between them is the margin.
Live markets — full navigation
Every market on this event, streaming — filter by type, tap any row for the live Kalshi & Polymarket price.
Odds — full market snapshotas of August 27, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
The Black Ball | Polymarket | 67% | $5.2K |
Fjord | Polymarket | 28% | $699 |
All of a Sudden | Polymarket | 6% | $301 |
The Beloved | Polymarket | 3% | $280 |
Rose | Polymarket | 3% | $249 |
Minotaur | Polymarket | 3% | $233 |
Possible Love | Polymarket | 2% | $277 |
Hope | Polymarket | 2% | $231 |
Fatherland | Polymarket | 2% | $221 |
Bitter Christmas | Polymarket | 2% | $219 |
Coward | Polymarket | 1% | $332 |
The Dreamed Adventure | Polymarket | 1% | $235 |
Parallel Tales | Polymarket | 1% | $226 |
Sheep in the Box | Polymarket | 1% | $225 |
The Man I Love | Polymarket | 1% | $220 |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. Odds move continuously; this is a dated snapshot — open the live venue for the current price.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five measurable inputs — traded volume, news corroboration, cross-venue agreement, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the August 27, 2026 snapshot · 35/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 10/30 | $9.1K in matched volume across this event's markets. Log-scaled: thin books score near zero, $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue agreement | 8/20 | Priced on one venue only — no independent book to check the number against, so this component sits at a neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 15 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 day of daily probability history on file. A longer tape shows how the price behaves, not just where it sits. |
The W.E.T. Score measures market microstructure — how much money, agreement, coverage, and corroboration sit behind a price. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Read it here. Act on it with the desk.
Everything above stays free — the score, the component breakdown, the cross-venue gap, the methodology. W.E.T. Premium doesn't unlock a hidden number; it adds the tooling that turns a reading into a move: the divergence scanner across every tracked market, the Index Desk, and the room where the desk argues it out.
Key takeaways
- Prediction markets price The Black Ball at 67% implied probability on Polymarket.
- $9K has traded across 15 markets on this event.
- This is implied probability from live trading as of Thursday, August 27 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices Oscars 2027: Best International Feature Film Winner at 67% implied probability on Polymarket as of Thursday, August 27. Here is the live market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 15 tracked markets, $9K has changed hands on this event — light but tradable interest. The Black Ball leads at 67%, a clear favorite, ahead of Fjord at 28%. It currently trades on Polymarket; if it also lists on the other venue, the cross-venue gap becomes a second signal to watch.
How entertainment markets like this resolve
Entertainment markets resolve on a public result — an awards outcome, a box-office figure, a release. The price is what traders pay for each result before it’s known.
What could move it
Nominations, review embargoes and early tracking, release schedules, and audience buzz drive the moves. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 67% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 67¢ implies a 67% chance the market resolves YES: a live, tradable estimate of probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Thursday, August 27; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Entertainment market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Entertainment odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for Oscars 2027: Best International Feature Film Winner?
As of Thursday, August 27, Polymarket price The Black Ball at 67% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of The Black Ball?
The prediction market implies a 67% chance of The Black Ball on Polymarket as of Thursday, August 27 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This event is currently listed on Polymarket. When an event trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, W.E.T. shows the cross-venue divergence, because a gap on the same outcome can signal an edge or a difference in the fine print.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are live prices from a prediction market, shown as implied probability — a reflection of what traders are collectively paying, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
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A balanced look at prediction market accuracy: why traded odds often beat polls, what IEM research shows, and the failure modes that distort prices.
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/oscars-2027-best-international-feature-film-winner-odds-2027-03-14?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=oscars-2027-best-international-feature-film-winner-odds-2027-03-14">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
Watch this market move
Live odds, catalysts, and cross-venue divergence on Kalshi and Polymarket — then argue about what's priced in with the crowd.